Cade Horton is (Almost) Ready for Showtime

Yeah this version of Horton feels pretty close to major league ready.  He's got to cut the walks, though like we talked about in the game thread yesterday he hasn't been nearly as wild as 10 walks in 12 innings would say to you.

I think if we were the Marlins, I'd expect him up before May, and be shocked if he wasn't up before Memorial Day.  But given the Cubs' competitive aspirations combined with his IP cap likely being something in the 100-120 range, it's harder to say what the plan here will be. 

I wouldn't be surprised by minimal MLB time in the first half, maybe a few spot starts, followed by a more permanent callup coinciding with a move to the bullpen around midseason.  But regardless of the specifics I anticipate inning management, both Horton's and Brown's, to have a major impact on Cade's MLB time this year.

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah this version of Horton feels pretty close to major league ready.  He's got to cut the walks, though like we talked about in the game thread yesterday he hasn't been nearly as wild as 10 walks in 12 innings would say to you.

I think if we were the Marlins, I'd expect him up before May, and be shocked if he wasn't up before Memorial Day.  But given the Cubs' competitive aspirations combined with his IP cap likely being something in the 100-120 range, it's harder to say what the plan here will be. 

I wouldn't be surprised by minimal MLB time in the first half, maybe a few spot starts, followed by a more permanent callup coinciding with a move to the bullpen around midseason.  But regardless of the specifics I anticipate inning management, both Horton's and Brown's, to have a major impact on Cade's MLB time this year.

Absolutely. I'd like to see Cade flash a third pitch a little more often than he has - yesterday he went almost exclusively fastball-slider through four innings. He did get one of his five whiffs on a curveball in the 5th inning - nice pitch. The Cubs have had success with two-pitch guys (Steele and Brown) so it's not an impossibility, I'd just like to have something else if need be. 

That's what I want, a bully, Jake Arrietta style on the mound (not off). 

I'm guessing beginning of June for Horton. I'd like to see him get that stamina up a little more and shake off some of that rust. 

I'd like to see the Cubs piggy back him in the 4/5 spot. I think that would be a good way to ease him into the pros and keep that innings limit low while providing valuable experience. 

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah this version of Horton feels pretty close to major league ready.  He's got to cut the walks, though like we talked about in the game thread yesterday he hasn't been nearly as wild as 10 walks in 12 innings would say to you.

I think if we were the Marlins, I'd expect him up before May, and be shocked if he wasn't up before Memorial Day.  But given the Cubs' competitive aspirations combined with his IP cap likely being something in the 100-120 range, it's harder to say what the plan here will be. 

I wouldn't be surprised by minimal MLB time in the first half, maybe a few spot starts, followed by a more permanent callup coinciding with a move to the bullpen around midseason.  But regardless of the specifics I anticipate inning management, both Horton's and Brown's, to have a major impact on Cade's MLB time this year.

The thing is if his max innings pitched this year is 120, if he is ready in mid May, why have him throw those innings in the minors? It isn’t like he won’t be pitching at AAA, unless they hold him to only 4 or 5 innings by design. If they plan on allowing him to throw 90 to 100 pitches after a few more starts, how is 90 pitches at AAA and different that 90 in the majors? This is provided he shows he is ready after a few more starts. 

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The thing is if his max innings pitched this year is 120, if he is ready in mid May, why have him throw those innings in the minors? It isn’t like he won’t be pitching at AAA, unless they hold him to only 4 or 5 innings by design. If they plan on allowing him to throw 90 to 100 pitches after a few more starts, how is 90 pitches at AAA and different that 90 in the majors? This is provided he shows he is ready after a few more starts. 

Yeah we're to the point where based on team need and Horton's readiness, it seems a waste for him to use his limited innings in AAA. He doesn't necessarily need to come up and instantly be a starter, but he needs to be pitching in the big leagues in some form. 

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

The thing is if his max innings pitched this year is 120, if he is ready in mid May, why have him throw those innings in the minors? It isn’t like he won’t be pitching at AAA, unless they hold him to only 4 or 5 innings by design. If they plan on allowing him to throw 90 to 100 pitches after a few more starts, how is 90 pitches at AAA and different that 90 in the majors? This is provided he shows he is ready after a few more starts. 

This is exactly it though.  He's clearly not quite ready yet, for a contending team anyway, and he needs the developmental time to refine the pitches/knock the rust off, however you want to couch it, and gain the stamina to hold that 96 mph velocity through 90-100 pitches.  It's not wasted bullets in AAA if there's some real developmental work going on to get him to the point they need him to be effective in the bigs.

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yeah we're to the point where based on team need and Horton's readiness, it seems a waste for him to use his limited innings in AAA. He doesn't necessarily need to come up and instantly be a starter, but he needs to be pitching in the big leagues in some form. 

Also, because he's going to break. It might as well be on a MLB mound. 

I think there's a bit of a balance that the Cubs need to go through. On one hand, you want to ensure that Horton isn't wasting needless innings in Triple-A, while at the same time, you don't want to promote him to say you promoted him. 

Ultimately, I believe the Cubs will go down one of two paths:

1. There is another injury in the rotation. Be it to Brown, Taillon...someone, which necessitates another addition. Wicks may or may not replace Rea on his own, but I think Horton would be pressed into service. The earlier this happens, the less likely Horton is to finish the year in the rotation, however. 

2. Horton builds innings in Iowa, and then joins the bullpen for the season. We have seen successful BP to SP transitions in the past (Spencer Strider is a good example, and actually a decent parallel to Horton, IMO) and the Cubs probably need help there still. Yesterday was a good example that the Cubs BP still feels...short. Palencia, Little and Roberts are potential sore spots. Horton could stay on "high alert" for an injury over the next two months and log 50 or so innings, and then be capable of still eating 70 innings in Chicago out of the BP. A few piggy backs and starts mixed in, but he could eventually be apart of a Horton-Hodge-Pressley "shorten the game" tandem come September/October. This probably allows the Cubs the most consistent action to Horton, even if it means more BP time. You can still get around 120 innings from him this way, and he'll still be ready for a rotational spot next year.

There has to be a balance of what's best for the Cubs and what's best for Horton and his development. As much as I want to win, I want Cade Horton to be a useful part of the rotation for more than just 2025. 

Right now, he's not there yet. He really is gassing around 50 pitches. He needs more stamina and his consistency aint there yet. All three of his walks yesterday were in part of him unable to get the final whiff - a few foul balls that could have been commanded that much better were the difference between K's and walks. And they added a few pitches each PA. I think earliest we'd see him is May.

38 minutes ago, mul21 said:

This is exactly it though.  He's clearly not quite ready yet, for a contending team anyway, and he needs the developmental time to refine the pitches/knock the rust off, however you want to couch it, and gain the stamina to hold that 96 mph velocity through 90-100 pitches.  It's not wasted bullets in AAA if there's some real developmental work going on to get him to the point they need him to be effective in the bigs.

I am not arguing he is ready now. My post was based on when he is ready. That is why I said “provided he shows he is ready over the next several starts”. Once he shows he is ready why keep him down? I think they will do what Jason suggested. Bring him up for the pen. That would be getting use out of him and monitoring his innings. Maybe he could make it through the entire season and not get to 120 innings that way. As Jason said, it is a balancing act. What is good for Horton as well as the Cubs, has to be what they base their decision on. The players long term health absolutely should come first. 

Horton by both skill/readiness and injury ramp probably won't be able to be an unreserved SP at the MLB level.  He'd basically never face the order a 3rd time, and you'd probably only plan on 4 IP in a given start.  Because of those limitations, I think we'll see multiple contingencies(Rea, Assad, Wicks) before they turn to Horton, which could be never if there aren't (multiple?) other rotation injuries.

But I also think it's likely that as he gets built up, he'll reach a point over the summer where he's banked enough innings that he becomes a relief option(as a MIRP or short reliever) since finishing as a reliever at the big league level won't jeopardize his ramp up for 2026.  Plus we know the team prefers to break in pitchers this way.  So at the moment I'd say it's unlikely we see Horton as a SP in Chicago this year, but fairly likely that he ends up a meaningful part of the bullpen come July/August.

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Horton by both skill/readiness and injury ramp probably won't be able to be an unreserved SP at the MLB level.  He'd basically never face the order a 3rd time, and you'd probably only plan on 4 IP in a given start.  Because of those limitations, I think we'll see multiple contingencies(Rea, Assad, Wicks) before they turn to Horton, which could be never if there aren't (multiple?) other rotation injuries.

But I also think it's likely that as he gets built up, he'll reach a point over the summer where he's banked enough innings that he becomes a relief option(as a MIRP or short reliever) since finishing as a reliever at the big league level won't jeopardize his ramp up for 2026.  Plus we know the team prefers to break in pitchers this way.  So at the moment I'd say it's unlikely we see Horton as a SP in Chicago this year, but fairly likely that he ends up a meaningful part of the bullpen come July/August.

I think he'll probably see innings in the BP - either earlier or later - but I do think that he will also see time in the Cubs rotation, even if just a handful of starts. He was able to get through  ~70 pitches yesterday sitting still at 95mph. It's certainly less than the 97-98mph he was hitting in his first 30 pitches regularly, but he was able to get through five. He's a pretty high-strike-frequency pitcher as well - yesterday he was at 55% in-zone pitches. Shota Imanaga averages just under 55% of his pitches in-zone this year, for a point of comparison, which is 20th of 137 qualified pitches in terms of how often he throws strikes. Ultimately, with extra conditioning and another 3-5 starts, I think we'll see that stamina increase to the 85 pitch range. For a high strike frequency pitcher, that's probably enough to get him through five more so than a less frequent strike thrower.

I do think that he'd probably be someone who would be capable of getting through 5+ innings even if the Cubs have reservations of how many pitches he can throw in a game. And with injury and ability, I'd be surprised if the Cubs didn't turn to him at some point. My best guess is that sometime in May to June, Mathew Boyd of Ben Brown will go down for a hot minute (they just have the two longest injury histories, but it could be any of them). Cade Horton will be the guy they insert then; he'll have his arm built up and being that it's earlier in the year, he'll get the runway.  If he makes, say, 8 starts (utilizing off days and extra rest) at around 4-5 innings a piece, he'll probably be around the 30-35+ IP mark with the Cubs and probably in the 75-90 range in total. 

Once pitcher X is back, Horton slides back to the BP for the conclusion of the year, and finishes around 100-120 IP. 

It would allow him to ramp up, build up innings but then slide into a more controlled and less volumized role as the year concludes. And allow the Cubs to strengthen the pen into October and (hopefully) beyond.

19 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think he'll probably see innings in the BP - either earlier or later - but I do think that he will also see time in the Cubs rotation, even if just a handful of starts. He was able to get through  ~70 pitches yesterday sitting still at 95mph. It's certainly less than the 97-98mph he was hitting in his first 30 pitches regularly, but he was able to get through five. He's a pretty high-strike-frequency pitcher as well - yesterday he was at 55% in-zone pitches. Shota Imanaga averages just under 55% of his pitches in-zone this year, for a point of comparison, which is 20th of 137 qualified pitches in terms of how often he throws strikes. Ultimately, with extra conditioning and another 3-5 starts, I think we'll see that stamina increase to the 85 pitch range. For a high strike frequency pitcher, that's probably enough to get him through five more so than a less frequent strike thrower.

I do think that he'd probably be someone who would be capable of getting through 5+ innings even if the Cubs have reservations of how many pitches he can throw in a game. And with injury and ability, I'd be surprised if the Cubs didn't turn to him at some point. My best guess is that sometime in May to June, Mathew Boyd of Ben Brown will go down for a hot minute (they just have the two longest injury histories, but it could be any of them). Cade Horton will be the guy they insert then; he'll have his arm built up and being that it's earlier in the year, he'll get the runway.  If he makes, say, 8 starts (utilizing off days and extra rest) at around 4-5 innings a piece, he'll probably be around the 30-35+ IP mark with the Cubs and probably in the 75-90 range in total. 

Once pitcher X is back, Horton slides back to the BP for the conclusion of the year, and finishes around 100-120 IP. 

It would allow him to ramp up, build up innings but then slide into a more controlled and less volumized role as the year concludes. And allow the Cubs to strengthen the pen into October and (hopefully) beyond.

I think that's okay in a vacuum(though I would be cautious about extrapolating stuff like zone % from AAA to MLB), but there are other alternatives that have room for optimism too.  Rea was a cromulent SP last year and his stuff may have ticked up, Assad was even more effective than that, and Wicks may have found something in AAA too.  Given the necessary limits you have to put on Horton, I think there's not as much upside to pushing Horton compared to those guys, when they may have lower ceilings but can give you more length with similar median run prevention expectations.

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think that's okay in a vacuum(though I would be cautious about extrapolating stuff like zone % from AAA to MLB), but there are other alternatives that have room for optimism too.  Rea was a cromulent SP last year and his stuff may have ticked up, Assad was even more effective than that, and Wicks may have found something in AAA too.  Given the necessary limits you have to put on Horton, I think there's not as much upside to pushing Horton compared to those guys, when they may have lower ceilings but can give you more length with similar median run prevention expectations.

It was less extrapolating and more a point of style. Horton is a pitcher who certainly throws a significant amount of his pitches in the strike zone and while I don't know if that will be 55%, or 53% or 52%, I don't expect that the general style of Horton will change drastically any time in the near future. It's who he is at this point. 

When it comes to the other options, until the Cubs make an external move, at least one of Rea/Wicks/Assad will have to be in the rotation as is. My example was for another injury to occur - meaning only two would remain (in theory, the two the Cubs would be less high on compared who whichever was in Steele's spot). I don't expect the Cubs to realistically make an external move for a while (based on how team have handled trades and the deadline since playoff expansion) so I doubt that the dynamics change much. 

Ultimately, I expect he'll get some run in the rotation. The Cubs went with Ben Brown in a somewhat similar manner last year and I think the Cubs internally (reading between the lines on Mooney's article today) are pretty high on Horton. I think he'll be more of a "here for a good time, not a long time" option with the inning limitations, but I think the Cubs would like to get a look at what he can add to the rotation a bit in 2025 as they enter next season. Call it a gut feeling if you will.