UMFan83

Also saw this today regarding summer friendlies:

Seems like a lot of room for them to be wrong. Schwindel will probably turn into a pumpkin but he has a high ceiling based on what he showed last year (though his defense will weigh him down from a WAR perspective). Hard to say what to expect from Nico and Madrigal considering how oft injured they are, and stupid no-vaxer should be a WAR machine defensively depending on how much he plays. None of these projections like Wisdom's profile (and neither do i lol) but he has some upside. The OF actually projects fairly well. And finally I'm assuming that the bullpen is ZIPS least accurate position group to project. The Cubs have built adequate to good bullpens from table scraps for years now. The only thing I trust more than the Cubs ability to build a solid pen is the Ricketts ability to do the wrong thing. Schwindel had an xwOBA of .329 last year, 31st out of 56 first basemen with at least 200 PAs. And like you said, offense is his calling card. Simmons has not been a 'WAR machine' defensively the last two years, but hey, maybe at 32 he'll get some of that quickness and arm strength back. He's totally healthy in spring training right? Wisdom, 40.8% strikeout rate. And yes, the last couple of years by the time September rolls along our bullpen seems fine, but that's after it had sucked most of the year and then for whatever reason by next spring we end up back in the same spot. Simmons finished 3rd in baseball in dWAR last year (per BR, haven't checked FG). About as much of a WAR machine as you can be defensively. He sucked in 2020 but a lot of people had off seasons. Good point on Schwindel, never really looked into his numbers to see how sustainable his performance was. I assume flukey but I think he's started the spring continuing to hit well so I felt like there was upside.

That catching tanking seems really light. Contreras/Gomes combined for almost 4 WAR last year which would be too 3-5 at the position. Zips projects them for 3.6 WAR, it’s a top 4-7 catching set up in MLB, imo and should be good for 3.5-4.5 WAR or so on a reasonable projection with a little more ceiling potential. Seems like a lot of room for them to be wrong. Schwindel will probably turn into a pumpkin but he has a high ceiling based on what he showed last year (though his defense will weigh him down from a WAR perspective). Hard to say what to expect from Nico and Madrigal considering how oft injured they are, and stupid no-vaxer should be a WAR machine defensively depending on how much he plays. None of these projections like Wisdom's profile (and neither do i lol) but he has some upside. The OF actually projects fairly well. And finally I'm assuming that the bullpen is ZIPS least accurate position group to project. The Cubs have built adequate to good bullpens from table scraps for years now. The only thing I trust more than the Cubs ability to build a solid pen is the Ricketts ability to do the wrong thing.

It wasn’t an “oof” of surprise, it was an “oof” of ESPN reinforcing the awfulness of the roster. Their rosters at AAA and AA aren't in great shape either. It's Davis and a bunch of relievers and not much else. But don't call it a rebuild. They're in such a weird situation. It's not really a rebuild and its definitely not really a retool. Like mentioned its probably a high floor team (though could get derailed with injuries due to lack of depth - Miley already scheduled to miss 3-4 weeks is not a great start), but they also have the ability to add like $70m in salary like nothing and still not be top 5 in baseball. If the team shows potential maybe they go nuts at the deadline because as critical as I am about the Rickett's insane cheapness I'm confident they are using the Jerry Reinsdorf playbook of "I'm willing to spend big money if the team is a contender".

Why oof? That's right in the range I would expect them. Lower end of that range but still in there. Like the article points out the Cubs have built a high floor/low ceiling type of team IMO. It's hard to really project them so I'd expect most "experts" would go conservative on them.

Honestly this is the best owning of a rivalry since the Red Sox came back from down 0-3 to beat the Yankees.

I think AKME is good at maneuvering within the cap but a lot of our capital was eaten up. Pat Williams coming back may hurt his trade value and Coby’s is destroyed with his recent play. Vuc can be an ok chip as he’s expiring and flaws aside is still relatively productive, he just needs the right situation. I mean would they consider a S+T of LaVine? I know that’s a very unpopular suggestion but I’m not sure how far the Bulls can go with their 2 best players being 1 way players. But ultimately it seems stupid to give up a 24 year old multi-time all star so we can kill that idea. I’m not saying I’m in favor of it either, just thinking about potential ways to improve the team and not get stuck in purgatory. I bet AKME takes a shot at trading for Anthony Davis also

Now 1-19 against the top 7 records in the league with a combined point differential of -269 (average of -13 per game) Our point differential in the last 3 games against those teams is -73. Yeesh Good news (sarcastic) is the next 2 games are against that group (Milwaukee and Boston). Still in great shape to make the top 6 but it’s kind of hard to care knowing what’s awaiting us and what little upside the team has in its current form.

Hmm

Hendricks with 4 HRs allowed in his final spring tune up? Hope he was just working on some stuff

I guess the other good thing about the draw is that we are matched up against Group A in the round of 16. The runner up of B will probably play Netherlands, but the winner is looking at Senegal, Qatar or Ecuador

ELO model gives us tied for the lowest odds of advancing, though I'm not sure how accurate it can be without knowing the 4th team

Speaking of FOX they have to be loving this. Thanksgiving NFL game on Thursday, USA-England on Friday, Michigan-Ohio State on Saturday.

Again I know the flaws of the FIFA rankings but here is the average fifa ranking for each group. For playoffs, I took the highest ranked team possible A: 32 B: 15 C: 22 D: 18 E: 18 F: 20 G: 19 H: 28 To compare the US group of death in 2014 had an average ranking of 14.

Rank the potential UEFA opponent: Wales, Ukraine, Scotland from hardest to easiest? Of course Ukraine has an interesting variable that is hard to quantify

All I know is that there is only 1 continental champion in our group

Are we thinking maybe 3rd toughest group?

Maybe England will be too focused on beating Wales/Scotland and will overlook us

Wales dammit

Thank God Canada doesn’t get A

Is Group G (Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland) shaping up as group of death?

I know FIFA rankings are meh but Iran is the 2nd highest ranked team in Pot 3 Would love revenge for 1998

Eh Iran. Not bad

There it is. USA england

Netherlands through