UMFan83

Sad that Javy is the butt of jokes now but he’s been atrocious this year so it fits

To me it’s TBD. If the offense goes cold, starting pitching still struggles and the team ends up with 78 wins, the season probably isn’t a success. There were some successful components to the season, but still in a situation where we didn’t finish .500, we couldn’t take advantage of a weak division and WC race and two of our top players are still FA. In the scenario you pointed out I can definitely take a more optimistic view of the season as a whole. After all it was just 2 years ago that Jed traded the core of the team down to bare bones. Building a team that is playing meaningful baseball with a few games left in the season is an accomplishment to some degree. I know for a fact that a few specific posters here would not agree with it, but I’d consider it somewhat successful.

He's hit into 3 double plays all year, none since May 10th. I don't know how many opportunities he's had though so that stat by itself doesn't tell us much. We do know he hits a crapload of GBs, but his sprint speed is above average (70 percentile) so I guess his sprint speed + low average EV means he could avoid DPs, but even if he avoids the DP he's put the team in a worse position than bunting (1st and 3rd, 1 out vs. 2nd and 3rd, 1 out). But maybe the Mets don't pitch around Nico if Morel strikes out with the go ahead run on first. The other option is to not bat Madrigal at all. I've seen a lot of "well what was Ross supposed to do, he had a GIDP machine up" on Twitter. You could put Gomes up, who hits 2 fly balls for every ground ball, but if he hits a ground ball anywhere near someone its a guaranteed DP. You could keep Amaya in there who also hits significantly more fly balls than ground balls. I just think bunts are stupid, especially in a game you are trailing. If the game was tied, I'd have accepted it more. I think RE calculators say that the only time its actually a benefit to bunt is in a tie game in the 8th or 9th with a runner on second. Other scenarios decrease run expectancy, but many by a negligible amount, thus other variables like GB rate, K rate, sprint speed, etc come into play.

Complaining about a US player never getting PT for Chelsea, nothing has changed.

I don't see a lot of people arguing when the Cubs don't bunt. The run expectancy info is helpful, but of course every situation has different variables. There were many more decisions that were made in the 9th inning that led to Madrigal PH for Amaya and Morel being allowed to hit. For instance if your concern there is double play avoidance, you mention Amaya's speed but not that his GB/FB ratio is 0.68 this year compared to Madrigal's 1.21. Maybe you don't like Amaya there as he's been slumping a bit of late. Yan Gomes GB/FB rate is even lower at 0.51. Maybe if Madrigal had started the game and was due up there I'd consider a bunt more, but my complaint comes down to Ross PHing him into the game specifically to bunt so that a high K% batter who has been particularly striking out a lot lately can be put into a situation where putting the ball in play is required is suboptimal for me. My complaint that's only a complaint in hindsight is Ross mentioning that Nico came after Morel and is a good bet to get a run home with 2 outs. And he's right except Nico got pitched around which is actually pretty obvious in retrospect knowing Happ is on deck.

Sorry you are a brilliant baseball mind but you won’t be able to convince me that David Ross managed that situation optimally

I just threw that out as an alternate option if you must have a bunt there. The real answer is no one needed to bunt there. and I’m going to withhold answering the second question because a) it’s stupid and b) I really don’t feel like spending the next 2 days doing this with you

As pointed out on Twitter it’s the second time in the last 10 days that Bellinger has been on deck while the Cubs make the final out of a 1 run loss. I usually don’t get too worked up about batting order though

Morel has struck out in 53% of his ABs over the last 2 weeks, it’s not like he’s been hitting well lately. I get that he hits FB well but his strikeout rate seems much more relevant here if you’re going to give up an out to give yourself one chance to drive in the tying run without a hit Also he didn’t have to PH Madrigal, he chose to bring in the high GB high contact guy in to bunt.

Or, I'm not sure how good of a bunter Barnhart is, but PH Barnhart to bunt (and he stays in at catcher) and PH Madrigal, who is a much better bet to get a run home with 2nd and 3rd and 1 out.

I hate when I can see a bad decision in real time, predict how it plays out and then it happens exactly like that. Morel was the DH, PH Gomes there if you have to. Makes no sense that he would purposely punt 33% of his remaining outs then put one of the worst people for contact up there

Whenever the games start to get big, his poor managing shows up. Always, from the moment he left Hendricks in too long in the 2020 WC game, to now.

0.5 back of the Marlins in the WC 2.5 back of the Brewers in the Central 1 stupid ass manager

What a horsefeathers stupid manager

HATE bunting there. Especially with a higher strikeout guy in Morel due up. bad bad bad

Remove Ottavino to bring in a pitcher with a 6.00 era.

Interesting that his first 2 hits came on the first pitch and the homer came on a 2-0 count. Could it be as simple as being more aggressive early in counts for him?

Ottavino throws 4 straight balls making the count 3-1 on Tauchman

I hope the offense is just exhausted with 16 games in a row. Not that they were going to score 8 runs a game but 3 kind of meh games in a row

Guys like Fulmer and Leiter haven’t pitched since Sunday. There’s an off day tomorrow. I feel like Ross got too cute there and it’s going to cost them the game

4 batters, no outs

He’ll have 3 of the next 8 days off at least

Ok Wesneski has nothing

Smyly and Wesneski are the kings of allowing HRs in their first innings of work

Damn Dansby stop striking out