Its a really really interesting position for Michigan. If Colorado wins, the 3 teams immediately behind Michigan for the 4 spot are 3 teams that Michigan already beat this year (well technically 2 since one of them will lose). Can you allow one of those teams to jump Michigan? FSU did just jump ahead of Louisville even though Louisville destroyed them this year so their is precedent to ignore H2H results. Then you factor in: will the committee really select 2 teams from the same conference for the first time, and have neither of those teams win their conference division much less title? Wisconsin and PSU would be 2-2 against Top 25 teams (UW: wins over #21 LSU and ~top 10 PSU, PSU: wins over #2 OSU and ~Top 10 Wisc). That doesn't beat Michigan's resume which is 3-1 against Top 10 teams. Can either really jump Michigan? If the committee wants to go a different route, which way do they go? Colorado with their 2 Top 25 wins and loss to Michigan? Oklahoma/OSU winner? OU would have that same 2-2 mark against Top 25 teams and the same overall record as UM. OSU would be 3-0 against Top 25 (thanks to Pitt sneaking in at #25) but 2 terrible losses to Central Michigan and Baylor. So you are looking at UM, Big Ten Winner, Colorado, OSU/OK winner (assuming UW would be out with a loss since committee already sees them as virtually even with Michigan). Michigan trumps 2 of those theoretically and the OSU/OK winner probably doesn't have a strong enough resume to jump from 9/10 to 4th in one week. All that said, I think the committee in that scenario would have the BTT winner jump UM and make it. Too much controversy to select Michigan there. Someone said Michigan is cemented at #5 and I think they are right, it would be really hard to move them up or down. Also I don't see Clemson dropping out of the top 4 if they lost. I think their resume is fairly solid with wins over 13-14-15 ranked teams (2 on the road) and the 2 losses being to top 25 teams.