It's really a 3 team dogfight for that 5th spot. If they're lucky, and none of the 3 have bad losses, the Big Ten might be able to steal a 6th bid, but that's gotta be the max. Northwestern has the easiest road (1 game against the top 4), with only 1 game they should lose, and one toss up. On the downside they have the worst current record at 4-6, and don't have a lot of opportunities for statement wins. (With only Purdue as a win over a tourney team) They are 1-2 against their competition (1-1 vs. UI, 0-1 vs MN) Minnesota has an easy road, with only 2 games against the top 4, but is without Al Nolen for the rest of the year and are sitting with a below 500 record at 4-5. They have a win against Butler to support their win vs OSU. They also have a bad loss to IU. MN and NU play each other a week from Sunday, and if MN wins that they should slot ahead of them barring a collapse. Illinois has a brutal road, playing the top 4 teams 6 times (3 home, 3 road) They've got good wins at Clemson and against Vandy, but have bad losses to Utah, Bradley, and a not good loss at GA. They have the best record of the 3 at 6-3, but that was built up by beating the dregs. They are 1-1 against their competition with a home game vs MN left at the end of February. Their remaining schedule is a double-edged sword in that they are favored in 2 games the rest of the way (according to Pomeroy), but it also gives them a lot of opportunity for marquee wins to separate them from the other 2, and no real chance for bad losses (after tonight) I'll say UI and NU make it, MN to NIT.