jersey cubs fan

He's got 3/81 remaining. If he opts out and signs a 5/125 he makes $2m less per year for the next 3, but guarantees himself $44m that wasn't guaranteed before. Not to mention he gets to avoid being blamed for everything bad that happens to the Yankees. He'd really be an idiot to not consider the option. It's not like he'll be forced to sign for the minimum if he opts out. Dipping from $27M/yr to $25M/yr is one thing. But what if he's looking at offers in the $20M range? IMO that's much more realistic. Maybe even lower. $20M is a tough nut to crack these days. 3/81 looks pretty good next to 5/100 or 6/120. Soriano making $18m as a player who couldn't hold ARod's jock makes me think $20m won't be that hard to crack for ARod. 3-4 years ago the $20m barrier didn't look like an easy target, but we're back now. Even still, I think 6/120 looks significantly better than 3/81 for a 30 something player who takes the kind of BS ARod has to take in NY.

Whose payroll? I think his current salary would work nicely into the Cubs' payroll. But I think his next contract would fit in much better with an AL team.

Or make the playoffs and have ARod struggle in a division series sweep loss.

The anti-HR league isn't stopping others from hitting HR.

The whole point of the thread is about young talent on the Cubs. When talking about players you have to factor in where they will play. If Colvin is going to play for the Cubs, it's like in RF. Describing him as a weak hitting corner OF is perfectly legit. Just because he can play CF doesn't mean jack squat if he doesn't play CF, unless he's traded, in which case we're no longer talking about young talent for the Cubs. If he forces Pie to RF, that just weakens Pie's value, as he's unlikely to be corner OF type hitter, although he could be a very good hitter for CF. Having 2 guys in the system who project to above average in CF before nothing special in the corners leaves you with nothing special in the corners, no matter how you cut it. As for your propped up comparison with David Ortiz, um, that makes no sense. Obviously Ortiz's SLG is based heavily on HR totals. That's power. Colvin's is based mostly on his ability to hit .300 right now. Seeing how frequently he strikes out and walks, and his lack of power, I don't see him being much of a threat to hit .300 or have an IsoD of .055.

Well, I definitely think that's reason enough to not resign him, but I'm not convinced he's already been surpassed by DeRosa. If he's been outperforming him so far in June, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

Minus avg. Barrett's numbers dominate this month over DeRosa. Given the small sample of it compared to 2 months, I'd still trust DeRosa higher up in the order compared to Barrett. But isn't 2 months a small sample size compared to, say, 3 years?

I'd add 5) More power. :) Although, I didn't include it in the list. You will probably be able to add a 6th) Murton won't be around if/when Colvin makes the big team.

I'm not taking away points. Where are the points that can be taken away. The problem is he can't hit, not all that well at least. Who cares? Um, I would think Cubs fans. A light hitter can still hit .300. A light hitter refers to power, not average. His SLG is okay, but it's propped up by average as he's had very little HR power, even compared to others in his league. It makes perfect sense to call such a hitter a light hitter. Wasn't Mark Grace a light hitter? I care because a prospect with okay numbers that are heavily dependent on AVG with no power or patience doesn't exactly scream top notch offensive talent to me. And that's the point of this whole discussion. At this point Colvin is nothing more than another guy who might contribute a bit to the team, but he's nobody to get overly giddy about when talking about the potential for big things on the Cubs by their current group of young hitters.

Corner OF? His CF defense is great - good range, instincts and arm. Light-hitting? He has a .491 SLG in the FSL, a pitching-dominated league. But yes, his patience is crap and plate discipline issues are going to catch up to him in AA or higher. I still like Colvin. I think he could be a nice player. Nothing special probably at this point, but could be a .285/.340/.500 player for a while. I think Pie can eventually produce like a corner OF, putting less pressure on Colvin to be a big time producer. Either player as a corner OF would take away a big chunk of their value for the team. An IsoD of .055 might be a bit to ask for Colvin, not to mention an IsoP of .215. He's at .030/.185 right now in A ball. I could see him being a nice player, as in a guy who outperforms his salary for 4-5 years. But I'm not all that positive he'll outperform Jacque Jones when all is said and done. A few seasons around a 780-800 OPS, but ultimately a disappointment due to the really ugly k/bb.

Corner OF? His CF defense is great - good range, insticts and arm. Light-hitting? He has a .491 SLG in the FSL, a pitching-dominated league. But yes, his patience is crap and it's going to catch up to him in AA or higher. He won't be a CF, unless Pie is dealt. For the purposes of judging offensive talent on the Cubs, he's a RF. And that SLG is good for 10th in the league, but propped up by his average. He's still way down the list in HR. Light hitting corner OF who can't take a walk is dead on.

Totally agree. Tell me, IF A-Rod opts out - isn't he losing $27 mil a year? He'd really be an idiot to do that. He's got 3/81 remaining. If he opts out and signs a 5/125 he makes $2m less per year for the next 3, but guarantees himself $44m that wasn't guaranteed before. Not to mention he gets to avoid being blamed for everything bad that happens to the Yankees. He'd really be an idiot to not consider the option. It's not like he'll be forced to sign for the minimum if he opts out.

Yes, and a little bit of Floyd. Cliff went public with expectations of playing more, although I don't think he's being a real complainer. Jacque has whined since day 1 about how he's been treated, regardless of the fact that he hasn't produced, 27 HR last year or not. last year he produced fine.... this year he's been a complete joke. But he whined from day 1, when he wasn't producing. When you combine his .334 OBP, awful baserunning and non-existent throwing arm, his 27 HR stop looking so fine.

Yes, and a little bit of Floyd. Cliff went public with expectations of playing more, although I don't think he's being a real complainer. Jacque has whined since day 1 about how he's been treated, regardless of the fact that he hasn't produced, 27 HR last year or not.

Or the myth of his defensive prowess.

I don't see the the steaming pile of crap. The Cubs have some young offensive players, but they are still lacking in studs. Theriot and Fontenot are nice utility bats, the type of cheap bats you should fill out your bench with, instead of going after guys like Macias and Neifi. But neither is likely to be anything worth writing home about as a starter. I think the future looks okay, but it still needs a good GM making great moves to make this an elite team, which is all I'll be satisfied with. As others have said, there is no stud offensive player in the system, unless Vitters changes that. Colvin is an okay prospect who probably projects better as a nice hitting CF as opposed to a great corner OF. I think that between Fontenot, Theriot, Patterson and Cedeno they can hold their own in the middle infield. But I'd like to see a really good one brought in to truly round out the lineup. Ramirez and Lee are good enough and young enough for the team to win with them here. Soriano can hopefully be an overall net positive for the next few years, because it's almost inevitable he'll be a drag sometime down the line. I think a guy like Soto can be a solid backup C for a few years at minimal cost, but with Blanco still signed and Barrett likely leaving via free agency, the position remains in question. Even if the new draftee comes on fast and strong, 2008 and 2009 are going to be iffy years behind the plate. Pie has looked good in spurts and had some great AAA numbers this year. But his overall body of work still leaves some doubt as to his ability to truly make a great impact in center. The young pitchers are doing well, but they need to keep producing guys because they go through arms rather quickly. Overall this team has some depth, what it lacks is true star potential. And they are still enduring black hole type production from SS (last place in NL for OPS - and no hope on the horizon) and RF (13th in the NL in OPS and no stars in the making).

He screwed the pooch when he signed him in the first place. And the year before when he settled into a Hollandsworth/Dubois, Patterson, Burnitz OF which was destined to fail and force him into overpaying for a hack like Jones in 2006.

I agree with your line of thinking (although I'm not even considering that last part). I'd like to see him stay at 3b regardless if he's gold glove or a little shaky. But it was a common concern that I read about him leading up to and after the draft "if he can stick at 3b". Part of me is just worried about the fate of many Cubs prospects who were forced to move positions, Kelton to OF, Montanez to 2B then LF, Harvey to pitcher (oh wait), etc.

Okay, so now we have all the picks up, anybody have any post-op breakdown of the draft? Any stories out there with expectations for these guys? I'm getting a little excited about the possibility of a real catcher coming up through the system. Obviously most of the talk is going to revolve around Vitters for now. I hope like heck he can stick at 3B and not be like most Cubs high school draftees.

I don't have a problem with no hitting anybody else. You have to win the game and need your arms. I just don't get why they didn't argue. It appeared to me he was out by a long margin, and he hit Fontenot. The ump made a delayed indecisive safe call. Lou should have been out there if only to complain about the out/safe call, but also to complain about the slide itself.

I doubt he's available. He's signed through next year and having a great season on a 1st place team. But no, I'm not much of a fan. This year is clearly a fluke. He's 32 and putting up an OPS+ 45.3% above his career average of 86. He has a career .321 OBP, which is weak, but tolerable. Howeve, he's been at .306 and .309 in 2 of of the previous 3 seasons. He turns 33 this November. I'm guessing maybe the Angels would trade him in his walk year, but how much would you have to give up for the right to pay him $9m and hope he doesn't regress? I'm not a fan either, to be honest. Just think he is an interesting name especially considering he has been a target in the past. He is an interesting name. If LAA wanted to trade him this year and took back Izturis + Jones, that would be nice. Cabrera certainly stands a better shot of not being a black hole. But once you make the trade, I fear they give him something like 4/40 which his numbers don't seem to justify.

Yeah I believe it, it's obvious. He started the season banged up. He missed at least one start, and probably two this weekend, which would have vaulted him over Murton easily. There was talk of a back issue with Murton, but no evidence, and he said he was fine. Floyd has been injured most of his career and moves around like Bonds nowadays. He's clearly incapable of starting everyday and being held back due to health. You need evidence of Murton's back injury? I like Murton and feel he should be playing 80% of the time but Floyd has clearly outplayed him this year. A Floyd/Murton platoon makes so much sense right now. I don't understand why management is being so patient with Jones. If you can't trade him just bench him. He's clearly the inferior player to Murton and Floyd. It's so frusterating. What I mean is that Floyd has clearly been held back more to injury than Murton. There was talk by Lou that he was sitting Murton for health reasons, but it seems pretty clear that was mostly talk, even if Murton was dinged up. Floyd is a walking injury. The only reason Murton has more ABs than Floyd is because of the health of Floyd (and his father).

the reds fans i know hate dunn, and pretty much blame their team's struggles on dunn's bad defense and strikeouts. From the few times I've heard their radio team on XM, I think the announcers blame him as well.

I doubt he's available. He's signed through next year and having a great season on a 1st place team. But no, I'm not much of a fan. This year is clearly a fluke. He's 32 and putting up an OPS+ 45.3% above his career average of 86. He has a career .321 OBP, which is weak, but tolerable. Howeve, he's been at .306 and .309 in 2 of of the previous 3 seasons. He turns 33 this November. I'm guessing maybe the Angels would trade him in his walk year, but how much would you have to give up for the right to pay him $9m and hope he doesn't regress?

Yeah I believe it, it's obvious. He started the season banged up. He missed at least one start, and probably two this weekend, which would have vaulted him over Murton easily. There was talk of a back issue with Murton, but no evidence, and he said he was fine. Floyd has been injured most of his career and moves around like Bonds nowadays. He's clearly incapable of starting everyday and being held back due to health.