jersey cubs fan

Flats or pumps?

Like it or not, his batting average is going to have an effect on his production... and in the context of this season, his bad luck on balls in play is resulting in his OPS being about 70 points lower than you'd expect. (30 points of missing batting average in this case translates to about 30 points of missing OBP and 40 points of SLG). And considering that about 32% of his professional PA have come this season, the missing 70 points has a pretty huge effect on his career OPS too. My little back of the napkin calculation would have his career OPS at .788 instead of .765 if he hadn't been so unlucky this season. Would you respond differently if told we have a 22 year old CF having a bit of a down year in AA but with a career OPS near .800, making significant strides on his only real problem and a lot of untapped potential? I don't know what you mean by respond differently, but none of those numbers are impressive to me, so I'd probably think of him fairly close to how I think of him now. Yeah okay, umm where did I pass him off as a bust who has never hit? He's been a poor professional hitter. I don't care about his average, but his overall production has been disappointing. He's done nothing as a pro that suggests to me he's got a great future in front of him. I'm not saying he can't do anything good in the majors, but he's got a heck of a lot of improvement to do before I'd say he's got a great chance of succeeding. I'm still unclear on how line drives are determined. Do they go by the official scorekeeper at each minor league stadium or do they have their own people charting things? I have a hard time believing those things even out over a course of a season. That type of data seems incredibly flawed to me.

For what it's worth, Colvin's BA is certainly lower than it should be right now, given how many line drives he's hit. At minimum, it's about 20 points low. If the "unknown" batted ball types were liners (and they probably were), it's closer to 30 points low. Just for the sake of argument, his best-case adjusted line is around .270/.335/.415. Is that line particularly good? No. But it gels much more closely with what most expectations were from him... and he'd still have some projection left to work with. He'd have some slight value in a trade as a 3rd or 4th piece. Wait, why would they probably be liners? And who determines what a liner is anyway? Colvin has been consistently poor at hitting baseballs as a professional. I have a hard time believing it's about bad luck. Taken from the glossary of the fine folk over at minorleaguesplits.com/ And he's right, it's just 10 points of BA (6 unknown batted ball types all season for him so far). That's why I didn't feel terrible about calling them liners when giving off what I admitted was a best-case adjustment. And I'm not entirely sure why you think he's been "consistently poor at hitting baseballs", he put up BA's of .291 and .306 in Tennessee and Daytona last year and has had solid IsoPs. Before this season, the complaint was never about his bat, it was about his patience (and possibly his defense)... a problem he seems to be making significant strides with. He just appears to need a good consolidation season. Does he not have a career minor league OPS of about 750? That's why I think he's been consistently bad at hitting the ball. I'm not talking about average. I don't care about average. I'm talking about production. Again though, how do balls in play get labeled? Who or what makes the distinction? I mean, I've seen balls labeled as "line outs" that were hardly what I would call a line drive.

Colvin hit .306 at Daytona and .291 at Tennessee last year, and his AVG this year is 30 points lower than he's hit at any professional level. Yeah, don't count me as somebody who cares much about batting average. We're talking about BABIP, it's the whole point. I believe the point was Colvin's value/status as a prospect. Adding 20-30 points to his average doesn't change the fact that overall his production has been quite weak.

Colvin hit .306 at Daytona and .291 at Tennessee last year, and his AVG this year is 30 points lower than he's hit at any professional level. Yeah, don't count me as somebody who cares much about batting average.

For what it's worth, Colvin's BA is certainly lower than it should be right now, given how many line drives he's hit. At minimum, it's about 20 points low. If the "unknown" batted ball types were liners (and they probably were), it's closer to 30 points low. Just for the sake of argument, his best-case adjusted line is around .270/.335/.415. Is that line particularly good? No. But it gels much more closely with what most expectations were from him... and he'd still have some projection left to work with. He'd have some slight value in a trade as a 3rd or 4th piece. Wait, why would they probably be liners? And who determines what a liner is anyway? Colvin has been consistently poor at hitting baseballs as a professional. I have a hard time believing it's about bad luck.

He is on the 40-man and I don't think building endurance would be all that much of an issue. It's not like he's been on the DL and not throwing. He's been throwing quite a bit, I believe.

Teams should draft based on who is the best asset - included in that is future trade value. But best asset is often a moving target depending on who you are trading with. LaPorta right now is a better asset than Vitters because he's hit well at a much higher level. LaPorta is also 23 compared to Vitters being 18. In those five years, Vitters could easily surpass LaPorta and either be a valuable member of the Cubs or traded for someone better than Sabathia. Hindsight is great. Sure, had the Cubs taken LaPorta, then maybe we're the front runner in getting Sabathia. I just don't think that's the best way to handle the draft. I don't understand why you keep insinuating people think that should be the only way they handle the draft. Evaluating a draftable asset entails many things, among them should be the likely value in a trade. Nobody, as far as I can tell, is suggesting drafting guys solely on who will be the best trade bait next year.

I think it would be crazy to ignore that part of the valuation.

Teams should draft based on who is the best asset - included in that is future trade value.

you'd have written the same thing about ryan harvey and luis montanez a year after they were drafted. So because Montanez and Harvey were busts, Vitters will be too. God, that's freaking ridiculous. And Vitters is performing much better than Harvey a year after he was drafted and better than Montanez as well. And in time we'll see who was the better pick out of Vitters and Wieters. But trying to use the Sabathia trade to justify your position is asinine. So because he's hit well for a couple weeks criticisms of the pick are invalid? Truffle was against that pick before, during and after the draft. He's held his ground pretty steady and has been very clear about why he was against it. The draft is all about acquiring assets - assets that will be used in a variety of ways. Being against drafting high school bats that high, especially high school bats with the red flags Vitters had, is hardly an indefensible stance.

That's because people misconstrue Beane's moneyball philosophy with being an OBP above all else philosophy. Beane looks for undervalued commodities, not just guys who get on base. OBP is no longer undervalued, or at least not as undervalued as it once was.

Right about now would be a perfect time to have a 1st round selection actually producing like one so the GM could include his name in trade discussions.

If the question was, can he have any success what so ever in short-season A ball, then yes he's answered that question.

Seriously? Watch the replay...he served up one of the meatiest meatballs that ever meated. it's probably more about "good pitcher giving up home run to not good hitter" Durham has a 117 OPS+ this year. And Marmol has been struggling - a common occurence with relievers.

whaaaa??? I think he's probably referring to the shadows created by a late afternoon sun. Not sure how that plays out in sanfran this time of year.

That would have required me having seen the movie. :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: For Shame. gotta agree with badger here I've seen it twice. I think I'd rather have the Kerry Wood dirty sanchez special that Vance speaks of; than to have to sit through that movie again. you are a bad person

Yes there were TT and actually Banedon you were only indirectly related. That's not Marquis and some minor leaguers.

They don't play until tomorrow night in STL. They'll get in very early Friday morning and play probably 12-14 hours later. It's no big deal.

The Cubs didn't stand pat in 03. Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez, and Randall Simon were all added for the stretch run. I was thinking more in terms of pitching. I do recall Lofton & Simon being added late in the year but I'm not sure I would consider them difference makers. when was Ramirez acquired? The only pitching they needed was maybe a set up guy, but Farnsworth was pretty decent most of that year. I guess they could have upgraded at closer, but Borowski didn't do any bad in the playoffs. What pitcher could they have acquired that would have been better than Prior, Wood, Clement, or Zambrano? Also, how do you forget when the freaking best player on the team was acquired? That move put us in the playoffs. Everyone gives Lofton the praise, but Ramirez was the real difference maker. me memory ain't what it used to be :oops: That's only because you forgot how bad it was.

I've never hated Fontenot.

I love Cardinals fans.

Because in a sport like baseball when a guy has all the physical tools to succeed and isn't its something with his brain. Marmol's stuff is just as nasty as before so it's not like he just lost it. It would be like LeBron struggling next year. It wouldn't be because he all of sudden lost all his athletic ability. Except that Marmol hasn't struggled for the whole season. He's in a bad stretch. Look at Kerry Wood. He had a bad stretch, but came out of it. Lebron is a bad example, as he plays the entire game every night. Relief pitching doesn't translate very well to basketball. Try not to take things too literally. LeBron is a good example because he is a freak and has more ability than anyone other than maybe Kobe. Marmol is a freak as a pitcher and has as good of stuff as anyone. It has nothing to do with playing time and has nothing to do with a whole season. It's a simple example of someone else with ridiculous ability. And Pedro is still effective when he is healthy he is just not healthy any more. He tried to pitch in a couple games this year while injured so his ERA is ridiculous but last year came bak from injury and had a 2.57 ERA. Lebron is a horrible example because he is a superstar baseball player. Marmol, like all relievers, is a specialist who does one thing very well. Relievers are inconsistent. They struggle from time to time. Marmol had a ridiculous streak, but he was never going to maintain that unprecedented level of superiority. Relievers simply do not appear in 80+ games with 100+ innings and perform flawlessly.

use him everyday until he learns his lesson.

The Cubs didn't stand pat in 03. Kenny Lofton, Aramis Ramirez, and Randall Simon were all added for the stretch run. Exactamundo. Stretch run acquisitions are grossly overrated. You build the team that decides how far you are going to go in November and December. Midseason deals don't make much of a difference.