jersey cubs fan

Reminds me of the classic and underrated, "Real Genius": "Ok, lets just take a step fwd. Now take a step back. Now take a step fwd., and back....and now we cha-cha!!" Real Genius is awesome!!! Did you know the singer is the lead singer from the band Survivor? How did you transition from talking about a great movie, Real Genius, to the real men of genius commercials?

embarrassing that I'm pointing out how stupid it is to get riled up over calling a 19 year old 19? Or pointing out that saying he was 19 last year in no way shape or form insinuates that he will be 20 in spring training? no, not at all

Agreed. A whole lot of offseason maneuvering to be worse than they were last year. Way to work them phones, Jim! I find it funny that people are agreeing with that. I guess if you think negative stuff first, it does seem not as good. I could easily say the bench can be just as good as last year, with adding another bench player. The rotation had even more question marks a year ago, and almost every teams rotation has question marks. Plus you only factor in, possible regression, without considering possible improvement. Having Soriano for another 30-40 plus games also offsets alot of the extra AB's Fontenot got last year. But hey if it makes people feel better thinking things are more likely to go wrong then work out. I'm sure last season people were saying even worse things about the team, and most were dead wrong. Odds are the Cubs will have at least 3 starters who make 30 plus starts, and even if some guys regress, other guys will have better years then last season. When you have a team as talented as this team, things tend to even out. Rarely do good teams have everything just go wrong due to injuries and major player regession. This team has four good starters, with good depth, that most teams would love to have. Alot of teams would be happy with Gaudin/Heilman or Marshall as their number 5, and would be fine with one of those other guys filling in. It also has 7 hitters who could have 350 plus OBP guys, and 5 hitters who could be 850-900 plus OPS guys, and a bunch of very talented hard throwers in the bullpen. How many teams have what we have? Especially in the NL, so we can try to compare the current roster to last year, and whatever but it doesn't really work out that way. If people would just stop comparing to last year or whatever and just look at the roster, it's pretty damn good. Seriously, can you read? How is summing them up as probably the best team in the division a whole bunch of negative stuff? The Cubs had a hell of a lot of things go their way last year. There's not a lot of room for improvement from within, so I was hoping they'd use this offseason, and offseason when they appear to be one of very few teams actually increasing payroll, to improve the team. To me, it doesn't look like they've improved the team, instead, I think they are a little worse than they were last year. I still expect them to win the division, maybe even more easily than last year. And since it doesn't make any sense to me to just assume they are going to add better players from what they got, I'm basing this off of what they look like right now.

remember when Hendry signed Neifi after San Fran cut him? Does Uribe have a free agent clause if he's not called up by a certain date?

That's it? That's the requirement?

I'm not so sure it's scenery that will fix Hill, as much as it may be time. It's virtually assured that he won't do it with the Cubs because of the way contracts work. If he ever does figure it out, it will be somewhere else a year or so from now, and change of scenery will be the accepted reason.

No it doesn't. It implies that he'll be 20 by July, instead of when he actually turns 20, in August. you are intentionally missing the entire point of this conversation I don't think you know what you're talking about.

Heilman isn't a young player, nor is he an unpredictable prospect. He's been in the league for several years and has shown what he's capable of.

I don't really think its Lou prefering "proven veterans" as much as it is Lou choosing his favorites and stubbornly sticking with his first impression. When the Cubs won the division in 2008, Lou was lauded for winning with players from the farm system who weren't exactly regarded highly. Theriot, Soto, Fontenot, Marmol, Samardzija, even Gallagher all played key roles. He just traded his .860+ OPS second baseman to make more ABs for Fontenot. However, the other side of the coin is players that he seems to not favor from the start for whatever reason. Players like Pie, Hill and Murton for whatever reason were out of favor from the start and Lou just never gave them the chance they deserved. Lou gave Hill every shot possible, including letting him start in the playoffs. For some reason or another Hill just completely lost it. I seem to recall Lou liking Pie very much his first year, but you are right his leash was very short and eventually Pie got into Lou's doghouse. Gallagher had a couple of rough outings, but Lou continued to give him chances. Overall, Lou plays whoever is producing. He wasn't shy about giving Hill the start over Marquis in the playoffs, simply because Marquis was a "proven veteran." He wasn't shy about benching Kendall for Soto. He wasn't shy about benching Izturis for Theriot. He wasn't shy about benching Fukudome at the end of last year. Lou is nowhere near as bad as Dusty used to be in regard to veterans. I agree, for the most part. But it's much more about first impressions with Lou than proven veteran. Also, yes, he was shy, and almost apologetic about starting Soto over Kendall. He had every intention of sticking with Kendall down the stretch until Soto made that option virtually impossible with a huge breakout. It's troubling that people have to be great from the outset in order to unseat such mediocre players as Kendall. I guess to hurt my first point, starting Tracshel over Marshall down the stretch in 2007 was pretty inexcusable, but then again so was even have Steve Trachsel to begin with. But he won a game.

I don't really think its Lou prefering "proven veterans" as much as it is Lou choosing his favorites and stubbornly sticking with his first impression. When the Cubs won the division in 2008, Lou was lauded for winning with players from the farm system who weren't exactly regarded highly. Theriot, Soto, Fontenot, Marmol, Samardzija, even Gallagher all played key roles. He just traded his .860+ OPS second baseman to make more ABs for Fontenot. However, the other side of the coin is players that he seems to not favor from the start for whatever reason. Players like Pie, Hill and Murton for whatever reason were out of favor from the start and Lou just never gave them the chance they deserved. Lou gave Hill every shot possible, including letting him start in the playoffs. For some reason or another Hill just completely lost it. I seem to recall Lou liking Pie very much his first year, but you are right his leash was very short and eventually Pie got into Lou's doghouse. Gallagher had a couple of rough outings, but Lou continued to give him chances. Overall, Lou plays whoever is producing. He wasn't shy about giving Hill the start over Marquis in the playoffs, simply because Marquis was a "proven veteran." He wasn't shy about benching Kendall for Soto. He wasn't shy about benching Izturis for Theriot. He wasn't shy about benching Fukudome at the end of last year. Lou is nowhere near as bad as Dusty used to be in regard to veterans. I agree, for the most part. But it's much more about first impressions with Lou than proven veteran. Also, yes, he was shy, and almost apologetic about starting Soto over Kendall. He had every intention of sticking with Kendall down the stretch until Soto made that option virtually impossible with a huge breakout. It's troubling that people have to be great from the outset in order to unseat such mediocre players as Kendall.

What do you do if you have to replace Ramirez and a 2B in the same game? Lou makes a heck of a lot of switches, but he, like most managers, waits to use the backup catcher so he's not potentially stuck with nobody to back him up. I cannot see Lou being comfortable with only one guy who can backup 3B, SS and 2B in any one game, let alone starting on opening day, when cold weather can lead to a lot of muscle tweaks. It really doesn't make any sense to have Johnson, Gathwright and Hoffpauir on the same bench.

How is he more than adequate? He was pretty disappointing for the Cubs last year, his career has been underwhelming. He's had a 6.5k/9 and 4.1bb/9 in his career, with a 1.52 WHIP. He did alright last year in a handful of starts. But to suggesting he's anything more than adequate is unnecessarily praising mediocrity. He's probably going to be adequate if he has to start a couple games. Hopefully they don't have to go with Heilman, Marshall and Gaudin starting in the same rotation though.

That's been said before. If he's going to have any sort of impact in the big leagues, it's probably going to be as a reliever. He can't be counted on to throw 5 innings in a row, and he can't be counted on to make multiple starts in a row. If he pitches twice a week and throws 50 big league innings, that would be a huge win. But even that is a reach.

i also think there should be an exception for guys traded within the last year - the brewers should not get compensation for losing sabathia IMO. I disagree. That allows small market teams the opportunity to contend now, while rebuilding for the future as well. It's a fairly large incentive for those teams to make the "go for it" trades that can excite the team and keep fan interest high in what is otherwise a non-entity. It needs to be adjusted, but taking away such an important thing for teams like Oakland, Milwaukee, Minnesota etc, that can't justify spending $100m on individual players, or trading away prospects for superstars, would be a big mistake.

I think it's a huge reach. The guy is 27, he's been horrible in limited major league innings and his health means there's no way you can count on him for more than 50 innings. Hes been horrible while being used out of the bullpen. Hes never been in a 5 man rotation at the ML level that I can think of. Also like I said durability is his biggest issue, but if healthy Guzman has good stuff. But that's a huge reach.

I think it's a huge reach. The guy is 27, he's been horrible in limited major league innings and his health means there's no way you can count on him for more than 50 innings.

He only threw 31 innings in MMP. He threw 65 in Petco.

Aaron Heilman is going to be the 5th starter. I don't see what guys like Randy Wolf have to do with anything. All the quotes coming from the Cubs camp sound pretty set on Heilman competing with what is already there for the spot. And given Hendry's longterm love for Heilman, combined with all the discussion of preferring to keep Marshall as the swingman, I'm guessing he's going to be given the first shot, more or less. There might be a slim chance they will trade for Peavy, but at this point, the most likely scenario is that the position filled by Jason Marquis last year, is going to be filled by Heilman. Zambrano, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and Heilman Marshall will take spot starts, potentially piggy back on Harden starts if he only goes 5 Gaudin, Vicaino, Wuertz, Cotts, Gregg and Marmol are the likely remainder of the bullpen. Soto, Bako are the catchers. Lee, Fontenot, Theriot, Ramirez startings infielders. Miles backing them up. Soriano, Fukudome, Bradley makes the the bulk of the outfield. Gathwright and Johnson backing all of them up. There's one spot available on the bench, almost certainly somebody that can backup on the infield. The bench is going to suck. The rotation is a big question, with multiple guys who are going to have a tough time making 30 starts. The one significant addition to the team, Bradley, offsets the biggest loss from last year's team, in Edmonds. But increased PA from Fontenot and Miles is going to have a tough time replacing what the Cubs got from DeRosa and Fontenot last year. They are still probably the best team in their division, although I think they've taken a step back, so far, and haven't positioned themselves any better for the future. If anything, they've limited their longterm options.

A utility man and a relief pitcher, both have limited value.

On that note, keep track of how many times the Cubs make an out on the basepaths. That's also a very good idea. Obviously CS is already a stat, but there's no stat for getting thrown out at a base for being way too aggressive (either trying to take extra bases or trying to take 3rd on a ball hit to the left side). http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=421535 Care to translate? Each stat in the middle corresponds to a different part of baserunning. One deals with stolen base attempts, another one deals with advancing on groundouts, another one deals with advancing on flyouts, another one on advancing on base hits, and finally advancing on things like wild pitches. The value of the extra base is compared to how many outs are recorded and then it's calculated how many runs were created or lost in each category compared to an average runner. Each is factored into the stat on the very right, which is how efficient the player was on the bases overall. Is there a category for outs made on the basepaths? It's not its own separate category, no. But tracking outs by itself is just as worthless as simply seeing how many extra bases a player takes without taking into account the risk. What it does is factor those outs into each of the other categories similar to how outs are factored into stolen base percentage, which based on that percentage and run expectancy charts we can figure out if trying for extra bases was worth it or not. All the outs that a player like Theriot made on the basepaths are counted against him in one of those categories, depending on what type of out it was. But it breaks it down into several different kinds of situations, so it is easier to see if a player is too risky in one area but provides reward in another baserunning area. its factored in there, but it's not explicitly listed there. Well, then it sounds like my man REAL can help me out here.

In my experiences, it's really difficult to overslide a bag in softball. this dude is extremely fast, always takes the extra base and always slides headfirst.

Dumb play, mistake, flaw in judgment, like I said its all a matter of the adjective you want to use. I think the people that could best gauge his aptitude would be the people that he spent the most time with, mainly Lou, Hendry, other coaches, his teammates, beat writers, etc. Bruce is pretty reserved in his criticism of players, so I would tend to think that if Bruce was insinuating that Cedeno was viewed as not very bright, that would be closer to the truth than any of us posters on a message board. Where did I say anything about Cedeno and his intelligence or lack of? To try and insinuate that a player oversliding a base is somehow part of a mental flaw, I doubt that person has really spent much running the bases in a live game but if they don't overslide it while playing The show then it must not occur in real life. We have a guy on our softball team who routinely overslides the bag, and he's definitely an idiot.

80 wins? Sure, by the middle of September. You don't think they can do it?

He may have okay stuff, but it's nothing special, and his numbers after many years, games and innings pitched are unimpressive. And no, people don't think it's the worst move ever.