Conceivably, you'd save a little bit for each of his next 2 seasons. Maybe he only gets 4 and 7.5 on the new deal, while through arb he may have gotten 5 and 8 or something like that. Then, you get him for 2 more years after that, hopefully at or slightly below his market value as a free agent. If he continues at his present rate, I'd guess he'd be a 12 mill a year type guy on the open market. The hope would be to get for around 10 or so. But, the main thing here, would be you'd only have him for 2 years outside of his arb clock. If you wait on him, you may get stuck paying him for 4-5 years outside of arb, instead of just the 2 and maybe not able to get the discount at that point either on money per year either. In the end, it all depends on how much Marmol values security as to whether or not he'd even be willing to lock himself down like this. he would be crazy not to sign the deal and the Cubs would be crazy to offer it.