Dead on. The risk isn't worth the reward. I'd also add that the Cubs need to add some starpower to be a serious contender, and if they have to do so in the trade market, Marmol could be an extremely valuable piece in that pursuit. I don't necessarily disagree with what you just said, but let me ask this: If Marmol stays healthy for the next 2 seasons and continues to basically do what he's done to date, do you re-sign him or let him walk and take the picks? And keep in mind that we may not have a closer in waiting, especially if Cashner winds up starting between now and then. To me, if we can lock down an elite closer now for a slight bargain(especially at the ages of where he'd have him, although I do acknowledge the injury risk), it takes us out of having to overpay for one on the free agent market You never have to pay for one. You should save money at closer long before you ever consider going cheap at 1B. There's been 1 consistently elite closer this past decade. Everybody else has come and gone. What happened to Francisco Rodriguez? Eric Gagne, Keith Foulk? It's just not worth it. The Yankees could afford to do it because they can afford anything and everything and they just so happened to have the one guy that was reliable every single year. Closer is not a position. It's just pitchers who pitch at the end of the game. There is no reason to inflate their salary because of the hype.