He doesn't strike people out, he's extremely hittable, and he's not all that great at preventing walks either. Couple that with what I thought was a considerable amount of luck on a few warning track drives that came up just short. I expected him to get worse from those early results, and so far he has. He's got marginal stuff and I just think it's very likely he's more like his 2011 numbers indicate than his early success. The difference in Wells '09-'10 and Wells '11 was that his HR rate nearly doubled and his GB rate tanked (likely a correlation) Pitch f/x is still unreliable going backwards regarding pitch type, but he threw the sinker ~5% less in 2011 vs 2010, I have no idea why, but I have a hard time just saying he was lucky to throw so many more groundballs and so many fewer home runs in '09 and '10. I understand the numbers aren't completely in my favor. But he's got mediocre stuff and his regression was expected (by me and others) so I'm not holding out much hope that the earlier success is going to be repeated.