This is actually very easily accounted for:
Last 20 QBs drafted first
Bryce Young (lol)
Kenny Pickett
Trevor Lawrence
Joe Burrow
Kyler Murray
Baker Mayfield
Mitchell Trubisky (woof)
Jared Goff
Jameis Winston (the best in a bad class)
Blake Bortles 🤷♂️
EJ Manuel (I legitimately have no idea who this is)
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford 🤷♂️
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan (tough competition with Joe Flacco)
JaMarcus Russell (horrible but also there isn't an NFL quality QB in this draft)
Vince Young
Alex Smith (Aaron Rodgers definitely bests Smith here, but Smith isn't a bad consolation prize)
Eli Manning 🤷♂️
Ok - going through the list, I'd say in roughly 10 of these drafts the correct QB was taken first. (There's some argument to be made in some years, like, in 2004, between Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Phillip Rivers, who do I want? Rivers is the best overall passer but am I upset to end up with Manning and 2 Super Bowls? I dunno) ((There are also years where there's no good option, like 2010 - Bradford vs. Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Mike Kafka. Woof.))
I put this out there to say that it's not as much of a crapshoot as it may seem - or at the very least, it's a weighted crapshoot. You give yourself decidedly better odds with the 1st overall.