the problem is there's no scenario where the offense improves outside of trades/FA acquisitions that's ok if everyone matches their 2018 production, but if Bryant and Contreras don't bounce back you really HAVE to have Baez maintain his numbers because you can't count on Zobrist to play a full season at the same level. All of a sudden a top-5 ish offense becomes a top 10-ish offense. We good defensed (and good Hamelsed) our way into a solid rotation, but Lester was lucky all year and Hamels is just as likely to be a 4.50 ERA guy as he is to do what he did last year. With Darvish a total question mark and Quintana unreliable, it's reasonable to expect the rotation to be a real mess. You want to project Lester to be better this year than last year? Good luck to you. Hendricks is one of the best Cubs pitchers of my lifetime but we have always been waiting on the other shoe to drop with him. Any loss of movement or control and who knows what he looks like. And he's the only one in the rotation we can remotely count on! The bullpen is Carl (last seen looking like 50 Cent throwing the opening pitch,) Stop (who has outlived the use by date of 99.9 percent of middle relievers,) Monty (might have to be in the rotation) and ????? Any reliever who can get an out without dying is going to be out of gas by June. there are scenarios where everyone is healthy and unbroken and we win our division There are many more scenarios where some combination of unhealth and regression happens and the results are really ugly. Knowing what we know about our roster given the age and regression and injury history of the keystone guys, are we more likely to be first-half cubs, or second-half cubs (OPS below .700 in Aug/Sept)