with the caveat that there's still FA to go, and the 82 game grind, injuries, playoff hotstreaks and matchups that leads to a mid Knicks team waking up and being unbeatable, etc
its really hard to find a team in the spurs/okc tier, which is funny to say considering neither one of them won last year.
In the east
Pistons won 60 games with a flawed roster, so they won't repeat that, but they're dealing with the bigger issue of either having to pay Duren $50m a year to be bad in the playoffs or getting 25 cents on the dollar for him in trade. They're out
Celtics won 56 games without Tatum by playing top 5 defense and letting Brown put up 30 shots a game. Now the bill comes due because Tatum is back and better than Brown, who is currently going insane after not winning MVP, losing in the first round while working Tatum back in, and then being floated in failed trade talks for giannis. They're out.
Knicks - repeating is impossible. Out.
Cavs - James Harden is on their team. Out.
Raptors, Hawks, Sixers - good rosters with age, health or atlanta concers. Out
Orland - Best player sucks. Out
Hornets - played so well last year they decided they couldn't have lamelo in charge of their future. Out
Heat - Giannis, Bam and some of your favorite g league stars of yesterday. Out.
Bucks, Bulls, Nets, Wizards - I actually think the bulls and wizards have some fun parts but obviously out. Bucks and Nets are going to be god-tier ass.
Pacers - Playoff risers two years ago, i could see them making some noise in the east if Haliburton is healthy at the end of the year, but Ivica Zubac is your third star. Our
In the west
Nuggets - roster is cooked. You have an all-time great in Jokic, but they havent gotten out of the second round in 3 years, everyone is older, murray and gordon (who i love) are injury prone and they've had to play Roster Tetris for three years in a row. Out.
Lakers - Luka still has to prove he can A.) stay healthy and B.) make a team better. It's LA so Silver might say horsefeathers it and let them have 10 max contracts. But otherwise I fail to see how a team with Luka and AR as its two best players will ever defend enough to win a title. Out.
Rockets - Lmao. Out.
Wolves - team has a covid test, a paternity test and a driving test as its 3 best players. Hell no. Could not be more out on them. Same problem Denver has, they've gotten close 3 straight years, but 3 offseasons of "we can recreate him in the aggregate" is too much in the nba. All the way out.
Blazers - lol. Out.
Suns - Fun season last year where they really overperformed. Now they're jettisoning the culture guys who made it work in exchange for the nba's worst citizens. basketball gods will not approve. Out.
Clippers - just traded kawhi lol. OKC owns their pick next year FYI. Out.
Olden State Warriors - lol out
Pelicans, Mavs, Grizzlies, Kings - lmao helllllll no
Utah - like their coach and their roster but obviously not.