Yep. This goes to what I've been repeating about pitchers going through a huge adjustment during their mid-late 20's. Here's Felix's average fastball velocity by year: 2007: 96.3 2008: 94.5 2009: 93.8 2010: 94.4 2011: 93.4 2012: 92.4 Disturbing trend for a guy you're handing out a seven year contract to, isn't it? If that's so cut and dry as you're trying so hard to make it seem then why did he actually get better in the middle of that? His strikeout rate has steadily increased, his walk rate has steadily decreased. Are you hinging this on the idea of him suffering a catastrophic injury/breakdown? Almost across the board he's actually improved as his velocity has gone down. xFIP's during that same period: 2007: 96.3 3.27 2008: 94.5 3.83 2009: 93.8 3.37 2010: 94.4 3.14 2011: 93.4 3.15 2012: 92.4 3.20 So, pretty much equally effective. He has been able to adjust to the loss of velocity so far. Will he be able to maintain that level of performance if the velocity drops down to 90? Are you willing to bet $175M on it? What if the velocity loss signals wear and tear that is the precursor of an injury? I'm all for spending money on star players and even overpaying for the right ones. But if I'm going to lock myself into seven year contracts, I'm doing it for hitters. Yes, with a pitcher this talented I'm willing to bet big money that this is more due to a pitcher (and ideally his coaches) realizing he doesn't have to blast past everyone to succeed. Nobody is thinking he's going to maintain the velocity he had when he started, but to present the decreasing top speeds on their own as if that's a slam dunk argument that he's cruising for a breakdown is as disingenuous as that list you posted on the previous page.