My point isn't that the coin toss winner doesn't have any advantage at all. My point is that no overtime system is going to create the perfect 50/50 split of outcomes people seem to want out of this. And college football overtime, the system many people are pointing to as, at minimum, a terrific starting point for an NFL system, has a win rate by the coin toss winner that's pretty damn close to the same as the NFL overtime system. And that's because the team that goes on offense 2nd has the advantage of knowing what's needed to win/tie. A lot like baseball teams batting last have an advantage. But again, you are cherry-picking for your argument. That "similar gap" (which is still only 8%) only exists for DECISIVE overtime college periods. The team that wins the initial coin toss in college games only goes on to win the game 50.94% of the time. College rules are much more fair, and it isn't even close.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/frai.2020.00061/full Well, well-put. I concede I did not realize those stats only applied to decisive overtime periods, as where I'd read that didn't mention it. I still think there's more cyber-ink spilled on the issue than it deserves, but your point is taken.