a) intuitively realize 900 MLE ops the last 2 seasons (as well as 900 in 73 mlb AB or whatever) shows him as a really good bet to be productive with the bat In 2008, Micah's third year at AAA, his batting line translates to a .286 EQA. While that's actually really close to Lee's PECOTA projection for 2009, I don't think Hoffpauir's odds of repeating his big season are very good. Furthermore, while advanced fielding metrics haven't really been very kind to Lee, I would still take his defense over Micah's. Plus/Minus has Lee's 2008 at +4, while Micah is at -2 in admittedly very few innings. we're talking about different things here. i agree with you that Lee would likely be the more productive player of the two in full time duty, but i think the notion of "only 73 AB he hasn't proven anything" is junk. what he did the last two years at both levels proves he's a safe bet to be good with the bat. which is the most you can say about any player, because even "proven" guys at the mlb level like victor martinez can have unforeseen crappy years.