KaiserCesar

The Twins did a pretty good job in squeezing a half season out of Jon Rauch, but he and Guerrier have been struggling of late, so they probably really needed this move.

When did this reputation for KW start? The earliest trades I can remember were back when he got Carl Everett and Robbie Alomar in 2003 and a lot of rumors that never came to be. I want to say Soriano was a pretty big target in the 2006 season, too, and people were saying that he 'always gets his guy'

Pretty terrible here. I don't know if they'll be able to nail down a case for 'fraud' right here but it definitely reflects terribly on Loria. Definitely the case of powerful interests getting the best of government, which happens more often than not.

I don't think its fair to say that a short-term trend of more profitability means they are going to create more value for their investors in the long-run. With the support from the city and fans drying up and the rather large dividends paid out to owners, one could easily call this 'looting'. The one reassuring part is the investment in player development, but they could be getting to the point where if they ever win, no one will really give enough of a damn to make it all worth it. PNC is a nice enough place to sit and watch a game even if the team sucks -- I guess longer-term when the place is outdated you'd run into problems, but otherwise their gate receipts are almost as low as they're going to get, right? They're going to get a bunch of "free" revenue from TV and MLB revenue-sharing regardless. That's part of their disincentive to spend. I'm thinking the major risk is the impact on revenue the day they actually get a successful team. While revenue sharing currently creates a floor and almost ensures that you'll be in the black with a bunch of league minimum players, it's probably not the best way to go about maxing out the value of the franchise and assumes no changes in the rules pertaining to payroll.

I don't think its fair to say that a short-term trend of more profitability means they are going to create more value for their investors in the long-run. With the support from the city and fans drying up and the rather large dividends paid out to owners, one could easily call this 'looting'. The one reassuring part is the investment in player development, but they could be getting to the point where if they ever win, no one will really give enough of a damn to make it all worth it.

The age and cost difference is actually pretty huge. I believe when Theriot was Dewitt's age he was still in Daytona.

The only real timeframe you can call 'terrible' for Colvin is his August OPS by month (PA's in parentheses) April/March - .965 (53) May - 1.033 (30) June - .780 (75) July - .857 (106) August - .555 (60) His K rate has been pretty steady in the high 20's and May actually featured his highest rate. So, basically, the success fluctuates with the number of home runs he hits, for now. While his HR/FB ratio is high, I don't know if the idea that his home runs are covering up the fact that he's bad properly puts him in proper perspective. It'll be interesting to see how the last month plays out for him and if he can show improvement in his K/BB and maintain his power. I think there's a good case to be optimistic about a .800 ops rookie who won't be arb eligible until 2013.

We can't forget about how much Blake Dewitt has added over Theriot in the 2nd half. With the Cubs so far he's got a .308/.384/.431 line. Also, guys like Fukudome and Castro have had a good 2nd half and the only really bad position has been catcher in Soto's absence. I think the offense is 1 bat away, but as mentioned in this thread, the bullpen needs some work and the rotation would only improve with a top tier starter who is a significant upgrade over the big group of guys who can give an ERA of 3.5-4.5.

I don't think that makes much sense. LF is as big of an offensive position as 1B, so if Soriano has value in LF then he should have value at 1B. Besides, it eases the logjam in the OF, which is worthwhile. 1B has a lower replacement value than LF (-12.5 to -7.5). Factor in that Soriano is an above-average LF and would likely be a below-average 1B and you see that he loses almost all of his current value, making him a replacement level player. Soriano currently is not a great LF, but "not great" and "replacement level" are very, very different things. He would be a near replacement-level 1B. And what would we gain out of it? Colvin is having a career year with numbers that seem completely unsustainable and his wOBA is nearly identical to that of Soriano. It's not worth it at all. You're better off signing an average 1B and letting one of those guys sit. so, sign a replacement level first baseman even though soriano would likely be replacement level, neglect pitching and continue to be stupid with money? oh yeah, and i forgot that you should also bench your cheap rookie who just most probably put up a +.800 OPS in his first year, either that or the guy who's making 20 million. yeah, great plan! The bolded words are not the same. I'd prefer making a move for a bigger time 1B, but I agree that Colvin and Soriano should both play. It's not the end of the world if you have Colvin, Fuk, Byrd and Soriano as 4 outfielders again.

Indeed, among other things that K rate looks astounding. I think his power will break out around his age 26 season in a couple of years, but I was trying to express some uncertainty there. Also consider that Tyler Colvin is worth about .2 wins less this year according to the fangraphs metric while playing much less.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html

I think Lee is going to be far closer to Gonzalez money than Dunn money, but it brings up an interesting point. What if you paid up for Lee and then overwhelmed a team for someone like Billy Butler? You think Moore would turn down Colvin, J Jackson, and Vitters with Hosmer getting close? Use the Nady-of-the-year to platoon with Kosuke until Jackson is ready? Castro Kosuke/Byrd Soto Butler Soriano Ramirez Byrd/Nady DeWitt(or Fontenot or Baker) with Lee/Dempster/Wells/Gorzelanny/Zambrano/Cashner and Marshall/Marmol at the back of the pen? That looks a lot more 2008 than 2006. How sure are you Butler is going to be worth that investment? So far he's shown he can be a strong .850 OPS guy with some pretty good pop, but if you aren't guaranteed a big slugger it may not be worth the price.

Yeah, but not by a ton. Marmol and Marshall both have an xFIP of 2.60 and 2.57, respectively. Ohman's xFIP is 4.37 and then Russell's is 4.64 and Cashner's is 4.97. in other words, our bullpen is terrible. Yep, though Cashner was pitching better until he got slapped around a few days ago. Russell was also doing much better earlier in the year (when, I believe, Tim was promoting him). I want to say Cashner's xFIP was still in the 4's even when his ERA was in the 2.25 range. His k/bb ratio was never really that great this year but was getting a lot of outs in play.

My guess would be the Twin Cities would get their AAA affiliate, yeesh that would be such a raw deal. I just read something that the Twin City metro area has in all certainty surpassed Detroit metro in GDP making it the 2nd largest economy in the Midwest. On top of that, the Twins are clearly a top flight organization and have a strong mid-market payroll.

The most frustrating was the Theriot-Lee-Ramirez because it gave a ton more at bats to the 3 worst hitters on the team (aside from the every other day K. Hill was playing). Despite Colvin not being a leadoff guy by any means, the one thing I like about the current construction is that Colvin/Castro max out their plate appearances.

It seems an offseason deal would be preferable to a midseason deal since more teams can get involved and there aren't as many financial constraints. Plus, a team might be willing to pay more knowing they would have a lot more time to try to sign Gonzalez long-term.

It might seem contradictory, but I think the greater the offensive catcher, the more you want to limit his starts. Catching takes a serious toll, and I think the point of diminishing returns, in terms of playing time, is much lower for that position. Would 135 really be pushing it? That's still almost 30 starts off plus off days. I don't know if there's a magic number, I'm just saying I have less of a problem with a strong hitting catcher having more rests. 135 starts would probably be fine, but now we're talking about the difference of a start every 2 weeks. 15 starts for a player of Soto's caliber would come out to something like half a win above replacement level, which Koyie HIll isn't even at.

well yeah, that's because lou has caught up and been playing him consistently for a month. he wasn't on pace for 120 starts when he was practically platooning with koyie [expletive] hill So you're upset because Soto's getting the appropriate playing time in the wrong order? Comparing his starts by month, we're talking about the difference in less than 1 game a week here. is 120 really average for a good young C? I'd think you'd want at least 130 or even 140. While 150+ isn't probably a good idea, esp given the number of day games the Cubs play, 120 is way too few, imo. I don't want to ruin him, but why waste his prime with just 120 starts and put him at the back of the lineup, which only further limits his PAs? A day off every 6th game would give you 1-2 days off a week and 135 starts. This is pretty ideal IMO and covers most day games after night games, long extra innings, minor injuries, etc. Also to be considered is the fact that K. Hill is terrible and Soto is the best hitter on the team at the moment.

I would say roughly 15 games off

That corner infield production has got to be amongst the worst in baseball. There's also been pretty minimal production outside of the starters, except Fukudome who hasn't been great himself. Theriot and Hill got a lot of ABs, Nady, Tracy, Baker were bad all year.

Can anyone say batting title? He's not eligible right now, but would need something like 200 PAs over the last 54 games, which is pretty likely if he hits 2nd the rest of the way. Votto is leading it at .324 with a bunch of guys in the .310-.320 range, Castro at .318 and guys like Byrd, Furcal, Prado, CarGo in the mix.

Given the circumstances it's about the best we could have hoped for. I wouldn't undersell Dewitt. He's got a league average OPS at the moment, turning 25 this month and could start showing power at any point. To get that for under 500k a year until he hits arbitration in 2012 is a pretty darn good haul. If Wallach/Smit add anything, it looks even sweeter.

As CCP said, our 1st round pick is protected so we'd only lose a second rounder for signing Dunn. Also, the Nats reportedly wanted Gordon Beckham for Dunn, I don't think they're going to take a lesser deal from the Cubs. We'd be looking, probably, at one of Vitters/Castro/B Jackson/Cashner being the key in a trade, I'd think. I'd rather give the second round pick. but in free agency, the Cubs will have to bid for Dunn against every other team that wants/needs him. If they can get him via a waiver claim, they and they only will have the opportunity to work out a deal with the Nats. If they want him that bad, that sounds like a more ideal situation to acquire him. In addition, he is more valued by American league teams who don't have to deal as much with his negative defense, meaning you are going to overpay relative to his value, unless Dunn is against DHing a majority of the time (which I think I've heard before, but I'm not sure). I'd rather trade for Gonzalez who is 2 1/2 years younger, a comparable hitter and better defender (although Dunn's metrics this year are actually near average, how reliable is that for a long-term deal?).

I would just let anyone who claims him take him and his remaining salary. I certainly want him out of the picture by September.

MLBTR just tackled the issue http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/08/the-cubs-offseason.html Despite all the innings to young relievers this year, who actually has performed well enough to stick around in 2011? I get the feeling a FA signing or two for the bullpen is pretty much guaranteed. Aside from that, a big 1B acquisition needs to be made and some depth additions that can't be fulfilled from within. We really have no idea who will come back in a dump of Fukudome or Zambrano, but there will probably be some high paid bench player(s)/bullpen arms next year.