My thought process on Bellinger over Chapman is kind of 2 pronged. First, the offensive downturn from Chapman last year is a bit scary and while Belli may not have great projections (I'll be surprised if he's not closer to 3.5 assuming health in 2024) and some concern with the hard hit rate etc., he's still likely to get more of his total WAR from offense than defense and offense is really where the team is deficient at the moment. I think the other piece is that the offensive gap between what the Cubs may get from the current 3B options vs Chapman held up against Belli vs PCA is much smaller as well.