bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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24 hours later, all I feel for sure is that the 4 seeds are unusually strong this year. Looking at Pomeroy ratings, here are the matchups where the lower seed is higher rated: - Marquette over Xavier - Illinois over UNLV - Florida State over Texas A&M - Old Dominion over Butler - Utah State over Kansas State - Gonzaga over St. John's - Michigan State over UCLA Here are other matchups where the ratings are a lot closer than the seed matchups: - Wisconsin-Belmont - Georgetown-USC - Vanderbilt-Richmond - Temple-Penn State - Cincy-Missouri - West Virginia-Clemson Here are matchups where the seed matchups are a lot closer than the ratings: - Clemson over UAB - Kentucky over Princeton - Washington over Georgia - Arizona over Memphis - Texas over Oakland - Louisville over Morehead State - USC over VCU - Michigan over Tennessee
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John Gasaway just posted an article (Insider) on his 3 good draws and 3 bad draws of the tournament: Good draws: - Florida - Overseeded in a friendly pod location in a half of the bracket full of overseeded teams (UCLA, MSU, BYU, St. John's). - USC - Not only made the field, but play-in game against a VCU team that nearly finished the season 0-7, for the right to play a Georgetown team that finished the year 0-3 and may struggle to integrate a key player back into the lineup. - Cincinnati - Drew an 11 seed that hasn't looked good in a month, and after that could get a UConn team that not only just finished up a 5-games-in-5-nights gauntlet, but that they also outplayed during the conference season. Bad draws: - St. John's - Playing a Gonzaga team in Denver that scored an efficiency margin of 0.17 in conference, while the Red Storm was just +.02 in conference. - Wisconsin - Playing a Belmont team that is grossly underseeded, coming off 4 years of tournament losses to Cornell, Xavier, Davidson and UNLV. - North Carolina - Possible second round game against the best team in the Pac-10, then a possible third round game against Syracuse in Newark.
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Kevin Love's double-double streak ended last night at 53 just as everyone suspected it would: not scoring enough points against Golden State.
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I'm pretty sure St. Mary's was in the top 100. I'm not so convinced it is a flaw in Pomeroy's ratings, as Sagarin is also a lot higher on Belmont/Utah State than RPI and seeding suggests. It's a factor of including scoring margin in the analysis, which is often more valuable than just looking at wins and losses. Sometimes a team just can't schedule quality competition, so you're left with how they do against the competition they do face.
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I'm going to go ahead and doubt the committee planned that one.
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Champ: OSU Runner-up: Notre Dame Final Four: Wisconsin, Duke Elite Eight: Washington, SDSU, Louisville, Gonzaga Sweet 16: Kentucky, Syracuse, Texas, Cincy, Illinois, Purdue, Pitt, Michigan State First round upsets: Bucknell, Marquette, Utah State, VCU
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My big first round upset is "The Bucknells" over UConn.
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I'm very conflicted on Wisconsin. On one hand, they drew the one team that I was sure I'd take against anyone. On the other hand, should they get past that game, every other team in the region is overseeded or the weakest of their seed, IMO.
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Could you imagine sulley if that happened to Illinois in back to back years? Not going to lie, if Illinois had missed the tournament this year again, I'd have pretty much sworn off college basketball for a while.
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According to Pomeroy, the 2 seed and the 13 seed in the Southeast are dead even.
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Milwaukee has held Boston to 60 points through 3 quarters...and trail by 22.
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The Big East had the following seeds: 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6, 9, 11. I mean, it's pretty much a nightmare keeping them out of the same pods, even if you fudge their seeds to try to prevent it. There was plenty of room in the 2-7-10-15 pods for teams. Easy enough to bump, say, UConn to a 2 and Cincy to a 7, swap Marquette back to the other pod, and boom, no conflicts.
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Or Utah State in 2010 *bitter*.
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BCS conference nothing. Saint Mary's got absolutely boned. Virginia Tech had an argument, but it was borderline. Colorado had a terrible RPI profile.
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Another thing, I think the committee seriously screwed up in putting Syracuse and Marquette and Connecticut/Cincinnati in the same pod. I thought they were supposed to at least attempt to prevent conference foes from meeting until the sweet 16.
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I think Illinois got screwed in that they drew an 8 seed that could've been a 6 seed, and yet it's still an 8-9 game, so the second round is murder even if they do win. I'd much have preferred them to get a 6-11 game against UNLV in that BYU-Florida bracket (that I might just pick Michigan State to the elite 8).
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Looks like the best online bracket was Jerry Palm's bracket, which actually had VCU in, so he only missed 2.
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Well, turns out UAB beat an at-large tournament team after all.
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No, they had a valid profile, really.
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Milwaukee may not break 50 in this game.
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Colorado had a terrible RPI profile. Complain about the use of RPI, sure, but they weren't even borderline with that profile.
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The only thing worse than VCU and USC getting at-large bids is all the experts complaining that it means Alabama got snubbed.
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In hindsight, Colorado's RPI profile was absolutely terrible, should've been a tipoff that they weren't on the at-large list. RPI of 76 with an RPI SOS of 73. Really, Saint Mary's was the screwed team from all this.
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There's three Big 10 teams better than Florida. Then again, there are 11 Big Ten teams better than VCU, so maybe they're the most overseeded. Saint Mary's got screwed, because if anything, you can't compare those two profiles in any way and call VCU's better.
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Most overseeded team (by far): Florida. There are 2 teams in their region alone that should've been seeded higher. Heck, I'd almost understand the seeding had they won the SEC tournament, but they got blown the hell out. And the SEC was horridly weak this year.
