I think the Big East and Big 12 can(and probably will) implode, but we don't end up at 4x16. If the ACC is pillaging the Big East to get to 16 and the Pac-12 takes the public Big 12 South schools to get to 16, I just don't see many attractive options to justify the Big 10 and SEC going to 16. I think you're more likely to see Conference USA and the Mountain West grow their numbers, and the Mountain West may even get to AQ status in the wake of the Big 12 and Big East. That said, I'd think the teams at most risk are ISU, Baylor, TCU, South Florida, and maybe Cincy and Louisville. Well, here's what I think will happen next: - UConn and Rutgers/Louisville to ACC (Rutgers wants in, but I think Louisville would fit better) so ACC is at 16 - A&M and, let's say, West Virginia to SEC to get to 14 in SEC - Texas, Oklahoma, OSU, and BYU/Texas Tech(?) to Pac to get them to 16 - ND/Big Ten makes too much sense not to happen at this point, so the Big Ten adds them and Cincy/Louisville/Rutgers/Missouri to get to 14. That leaves an absence of 4 spots (2 each in SEC/Big Ten) for the 4x16 layout, and leaves Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, South Florida, TCU, one of BYU/Texas Tech, and two of Cincy/Louisville/Rutgers/Missouri out. Maybe those 8 teams can form another conference from the ashes along with Boise State and a couple other high-profile MWC teams?