bukie
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Everything posted by bukie
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Also, still compiling a list of single-bid league winners and projected winners.
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Tweaked my value formula a bit for reasons explained soon (incorporating both EM and KP Pythag rating). Went through Missouri on KP's ratings (71), since they were the last team to be included in a bubble list somewhere. Here was the top 16 in tier value (i.e. would be protected top 4 seeds): http://i.imgur.com/R7BLBSd.png Here was the next 16 in tier value (i.e. seeds 5-8): http://i.imgur.com/uvWmN40.png And here are the "bubble"-level teams: http://i.imgur.com/nMjARZv.png Note, if we go strictly by tier value, the last 4 teams in are Kansas St., Providence, Southern Miss and Nebraska, meaning Tennessee, Arkansas, Minnesota, Cal and St. John's would be out. I added in effiency margin and KP rating to the value calculation because before that, Tennessee was coming in behind Illinois (who comes in 4 behind this list, actually, ahead of Minnesota...). This is hardly concrete, but here's a place to open it up for discussion. Tennessee is another one of those teams who comes in really good efficiency-wise, but mostly because they run it up against bad teams.
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Based on the information, to me it looks like there's a clear top 3 of Villanova, Arizona and Florida, with the 4th top seed being up for grabs between Wisconsin, Syracuse, and Wichita State. Wichita State didn't get a lot of good wins, but they had a good EM in their good wins, and comparable EM to both Syracuse and Wisconsin in other tiers. Granted, Syracuse and Wisconsin still have opportunities to pick up more good wins (and bad losses), so things are still a bit up in the air.
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Loaded the KP top 32 into the script, and set up a value based on the tier system, where T1 wins counted double, T3 wins counted half, T1 losses counted half, and T3 losses counted double. Here is the top 16 based on that value: http://i.imgur.com/R8L2dhR.png Continuing to add every possible at-large consideration to the script, and getting the rest of the auto bids in there also. One auto bid is in that list already, another fell just outside the list for now.
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No lists last night, so I'll set things up differently. I have to compile some information, and then I'll update the thread.
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Derek Jeter farewell tour goes through Australia.
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Gonzaga holds on to win the WCC.
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North Dakota State comes back to beat IPFW to win the Summit.
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One of the 16 seed play-in teams is set, as Mount St. Mary's wins the NEC at 16-16. Milwaukee wins the Horizon as the 5 seed.
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More proof that conference realignment ruined college sports! Realignment has not been kind to the CAA, CUSA, old Big East, MVC, or Southland.
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No team is going to benefit from their RPI more than UMass this year. 17 right now.
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Delaware wins the CAA. Man, the CAA is bad now.
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Manhattan victorious in MAAC-achusetts (their words, not mine). Wofford wins SoCon.
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Southland is another weird conference this year. 12 of the 14 teams played 18 conference games, while the other two played 14 conference games. Incarnate Word, which finished 21-6 and 9-5 in conference, played 12 OOC games against D2 and D3 teams, possibly the weakest OOC scheduling in D1 history. And are inelgible for the conference tourney. Southland is so weird, in fact, that Oral Roberts, who just joined last year, is going back to their previous conference, since the Southland is so bad that Incarnate Word could finish 3rd despite playing the above mentioned non-con schedule.
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When compiling the data for the auto bid champions thus far, I feel like there needs to be a Tier 4 somewhere.
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MSU has had all their players back since the Illinois game, just in time for what is their only "bad" loss of the year. Question is can they get it into gear by the start of the tournament. Biggest injury question going into the tourney, IMO, is Kansas' Joel Embiid.
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I've found it really strange the NCAA is allowing that. If APR is really supposed to be as important as the NCAA says, they should tell the SWAC "tough [expletive], you're having a six-team tournament if you don't get your teams to at least not completely suck in the classroom". Don't you have to have a tournament with at least 8 (presumably eligible) teams to even be granted an automatic bid? I'm guessing they got an exception for a temporary situation like this. Conference must have at least 8 teams to get an auto bid. There's one extra auto bid this year (AAC), so one fewer at large spot (so "only" 36)
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SWAC is being odd this year, and letting the 4 teams that are ineligible for the NCAA tournament play in the SWAC tourney. Thus, if an ineligible team wins it, the team that got the next farthest will go to the NCAA tourney. Ineligible seeds are 1/4/9/10.
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Yeah, I think the exercise had Wichita State come out better than I expected. Their T1 sample size is small (as expected, since this year there are no other top 100 teams in the MVC), but they beat all 3 tournament teams, one at home (Tennessee), one on the road (St. Louis), and one in a neutral location (BYU). If I had to pick the 1 seeds right now, I'd have to go with Florida-Wichita State-Arizona-Nova. Also, Louisville looks really good at KP, but they really did most of their damage against the crap of their schedule.
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Got my script working. Here's the current top 16 in KenPom, broken down by records vs. each "tier" of opponent. Tier 1: Home games vs top 25, neutral games vs top 50, road games vs top 75 (i.e. tournament level games) Tier 2: Home games vs 26-60, neutral games vs 51-100, road games vs 76-175 (i.e. losable games) Tier 3: All other games (i.e. embarrassing to lose, otherwise meaningless to win) What the rest means (taken from JohnGasaway.com): PPP - Points per possession, a way to normalize offensive efficiency on a per-possession basis. Average is around 1, generally. OPP - Opponents points per possession, normalize defensive efficiency on a per-possession basis. Average is around 1, generally. EM - Average efficiency margin (basically PPP - OPP), showing essentially how effective a team is against each tier of opponent. http://i.imgur.com/nbCrfd4.png That is a lot of data...not much of a better way to display it on the forum. EDIT: Screw code, I just quick uploaded a screenshot of the excel formatted a bit better, should make things easier to read.
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Davidson, 15-1 in the SoCon, lost in the semis today to Western Carolina. Wofford vs Western Carolina in the SoCon final. Vermont, 15-1 in the America East, lost in the semis today at Albany (tournament host). Albany vs Stony Brook in the AE final.
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BTT matchups are settled then. Thursday: 8 Indiana vs 9 Illinois 5 Ohio State vs 12 Purdue 7 Minnesota vs 10 Penn State 6 Iowa vs 11 Northwestern Friday: 1 Michigan vs 8/9 winner 4 Nebraska vs 5/12 winner 2 Wisconsin vs 7/10 winner 3 Michigan State vs 6/11 winner
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Mercer wins the Atlantic Sun.
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Wichita State wins the MVC, as bubble teams everywhere rejoice and exhale.
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All depends on the outcome of the PSU-Minnesota game. EDIT: According to KP FanMatch, there's a 70% chance that it'll be Indiana and Illinois on Thursday.
