Rob

Which is more likely? 1. The Cubs recent stretch is essentially a self-correction for our impossibly bad record in one-run games from earlier in the season. 2. The two or three passed balls our new catchers have saved has been enough to more than make up for the fact that they have two or three hits over the last month. Not only that, but it's enough of a significant improvement that its helping carry this team to new heights?

I'd trade Izturis plus his whole salary just for the roster spot.

First off, I'll post what I damn well want to. If you've got a problem with being shown up, get smarter. Secondly, for somebody talking about not knowing how to use stats, you sure as hell don't know when to use WARP1 vs. WARP3. If we were comparing Ichiro to Enos Slaughter... sure. Comparing him to contemporaries, he's posted WARP1s of 9.0, 7.2, 6.8, 8.6, 6.9, and 7.0. He's at 5.8 so far this year, but based on his average of about 7.5 WARP, I doubt he keeps up the pace. Finally, aren't you the one who started bitching about my grasp of the word "superstar"? You started the damn semantic argument. Don't like em? Stop starting them.

Yeah, you're probably right. But Ichiro's production doesn't have to fall off more rapidly to make him less of an asset more quickly. Let's face it, Ichiro is valuable, but he's not a superstar. If he falls off much at all, he's Juan Pierre with a cannon arm instead of Ichiro... and there's a huge difference. While Ichiro is the posterboy for all BA yet no good OBP, he's still a superstar player. Not because of his bat as much as his defense. He's a tremendous defensive player at CF and RF. BP's "Stars & Scrubs" chart for Ichiro... posting his calculated chance to perform at certain level for the next few years. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/suzukic01_004.gif Edit: Granted, that is just for his bat... but his defense, while great, isn't enough to drag that whole graph up to the point where he's a no-doubt superstar. Edit2: Just for comparison's sake. Pujols http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/pujolal01_004.gif ARod http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/rodrial01_004.gif Vlad http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/guerrvl01_004.gif Aramis http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/ramirar01_004.gif Pie http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/PIE19850208A_004.gif

I'd sure be curious to hear which 2 or 3 seasons you're tossing out as less than good. His worst season was still worth over 8 wins. That's very good. 2003: .312/.352/.436/.788, 110 OPS+, 80% SB 2005: .303/.350/.436/.786, 109 OPS+, 80% SB 2006: .322/.370/.416/.786, 109 OPS+, 95% SB Now he did add a significant amount of production in 2006 with his stolen bases, but overall those years aren't terribly impressive. You're missing a whole lot by focusing on OPS+. Above average hitting + outstanding baserunning + gold glove defense adds up to a very productive, well above average player. As I pointed out, at his worst Ichiro's been worth 8+ wins. That's nothing short of very good production. For some perspective, ARod's off year in 2006 was good for "just" 7.3 wins, even with a terrific OPS+ (140). But in 2004 ARod was good for 10 wins despite an OPS+ of "just" 133. Using WARP3 is a bit dishonest, isn't it? Using a stat meant to compare current players to past players instead of the basic WARP which just compares players to each other that year when his yearly score would drop below 7 on the low end... it's a little fishy.

Yeah, you're probably right. But Ichiro's production doesn't have to fall off more rapidly to make him less of an asset more quickly. Let's face it, Ichiro is valuable, but he's not a superstar. If he falls off much at all, he's Juan Pierre with a cannon arm instead of Ichiro... and there's a huge difference.

Thank God. Ichiro is exactly the sort of player Lou and Hendry nut themselves over... I was very worried we'd trade Pie and try to sign Ichiro to make up for it.

CERA is mostly worthless even when used to compare catchers on the same team since so many factors change from game to game (opponent, lineup, weather conditions, etc.) CERA is completely worthless when comparing catchers that don't play for the same team. As for the list of defensive catchers above, I'd say their team's success probably had more to do with the pitching staff they were catching rather than their ability to cause a call a good game. I know what CERA is and it's worth. Don't lecture to me. Then I'm praying you were doing your damndest to be sarcastic before.

It absolutely is horrible. It's a horribly inefficient use of available resources. Why on earth would we ever want to bat a man with a .330 OBP in the 2 hole? You move Theriot to 7th or 8th and move everybody else up one slot, and we'd be much better for it. I think that would be the definitition of "most improvement with the money that you actually have." If memory serves, tangotiger's numbers implied a team could gain about 2 games in the standings with an optimized lineup. If we tacked that whole total on Theriot's shoulders, it'd be effectively turning him into JJ Hardy or Jimmy Rollins this season (based on Win Shares). Just for shedding preconceived notions about lineup construction... pretty good deal if you ask me.

Pass

I wish. I'd have a 30 HR lead over my opponent thanks to Vlad and Pujols.

Sweet. Since Vlad (and Pujols) are on my fantasy team, I think I should get credit for all their dingers tonight in the league. I'd feel pretty confident about my chances.

I got sick and tired of listening to this thing. How many did Vlad hit in the final round?

Steve Stone could be there with them, talking about how the pitcher should throw a slider low and away. (Note: I like Stoney... but that's all he friggin talks about.)

This is disgusting. If they don't just let Kenny Mayne call the whole thing from the kayak, I think I'm gonna have to go to hospital for jackass poisoning.

QFT ARod has easily been the best player in the AL. The only other player that even has a case is Magglio, but that's it.

I had to go with Hanley. He's hitting just about as well as anybody in the league, stealing bases at a decent clip, staying healthy, and playing solid defense at a position on the far left of the fielding spectrum... where that bat looks even more amazing.

Joe Morgan just tried to knock the rock with that chicken.

I'm laughing too hard to come up with a witty comment.

I'm sorry but Hendry deserves more credit than this. Plus its pretty clear they want someone with defensive abilites over offensive. Correction: Jim Hendry wanted somebody with more defensive abilities than offensive. Being as fickle as he is, he's gonna love this plan until we lose 7 of 10 after our new catchers can't capitalize at the plate in close games. Jim Hendry flip flops more often than a Russian gymnist. You really think he'll stick with this plan once the first few signs of failure inevitably start to show? I'll grant, it's much more likely he brings up Soto and cuts bait on Hill. But I see zero chance that Hill/Bowen is our catching tandem for the rest of the year.

Why on earth would the commish have anything to say about it? He only bitches about paying over slot for draft picks... and understandably so, considering the talent we got in the 06 draft without having a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick. At any rate, we have holes at C, SS, and CF right now, plus the potential to upgrade in RF. At C, only Salty and Piazza are really available. Salty wont be much of an impact bat this year, and considering Piazza's defensive woes, we'd probably be better off just bringing up Soto. At SS, there's really nothing available unless the Yankees fall way out of it this month. Even at that, I don't see Jim ponying up for Arod unless he gets him to agree to waive his opt-out. Again, most likely upgrade is just bringing up Cedeno. In CF, Pie could turn it on and be a real impact player, but it seems likely he's a year away from being truly ready. Unfortunately, most teams with trade-candidate CFers are in the races right now. Andruw Jones, Ichiro, Torii Hunter, Eric Byrnes, Mike Cameron... all those guys are in the playoff hunt. And I don't see Jimbo trading for a guy with more than one year left on his contract simply to avoid blocking Pie. In RF, Cliff Floyd is hitting well enough but is severely lacking power. Jermaine Dye, Ken Griffey Jr., and Bobby Abreu have all been made available. And there's always the chance we could play Adam Dunn out of position in RF. I guess the point is that we aren't going to be able to acquire a real impact bat for the positions we currently have black holes at... so if we do manage to get an impact player, it's not gonna be as useful as it could be.

I could see Jim making up for his stupid decision by making a dumber one... like bringing in Piazza (who no longer has a place in Oakland with the emergence of Jack Cust)

Molina isn't a plus defensive or offensive catcher anymore, and he's expensive. Does it sound like something Jim Hendry would do? Yeah... but that's hardly a reason to get behind the idea.

From Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report, the Cubs have a 21.11332% chance to win the NL Central, and a 16.74729% chance to win the Wild Card, which leads to a agreggate playoff chance of 37.86060%

We could fix SS and C just by bringing up Cedeno and Soto. But we wont do that.