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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Nolan Ryan in 1987 threw 211.2 innings with a 2.76 ERA. That ERA was the best in the entire league among qualified hurlers, yet he went 8-16. Anybody paying the slightest bit of attention 20 years ago would have realized then exactly how useless a stat wins is to evaluate a pitcher.
  2. Rob
    1. John Schuerholz 2. Billy Beane 3. Mark Shapiro 4. Terry Ryan 5. Dave Dombrowski 6. Larry Beinfest 7. Theo Epstein 8. Kevin Towers 9. Brian Cashman 10. Doug Melvin Narrowly missing the cut: Walt Jocketty, Omar Minaya, and Bill Stoneman Honestly though, I see there as being a huge divide after the top four.
  3. Rob
    Meh.
  4. Rob
    Dollars to dimes says that we send Soto down instead of just DFAing Hill.
  5. Rob
    Most of the players disliked Barrett. Barrett was a bad defensive catcher, couldn't hit well, and Z nearly killed him. The Cubs have been great since he left. It was a good move. Everything I've ever heard suggests that Kendall is a tool that nobody likes. He also is a bad defensive catcher, and has on OPS over 150 points lower than Barrett. Seriously, Kendall has hurt his team more than any other player in the league outside of Dioner Navarro. Kendall quite simply is an offensive and defensive liability, and there have been rumors of him being an clubhouse cancer. So how on earth can you defend the Barrett trade, and think this is a good one for us? It's ridiculous. Edit: This hasn't been brought up yet, but Kendall has a FULL NO-TRADE CLAUSE.
  6. Rob
    So wait... We get an old catcher who is terrible offensively and defensively, and takes up a huge chunk of the payroll. In exchange, we give up a better young catcher under club control for a few more years, plus a prospect. How much are the Brewers paying Hendry to do this?
  7. Rob
    As of this morning, BP's playoff odds report suggests that the Cards have a .97090% chance of making the playoffs. If you look at the PECOTA-adjusted report, that number falls to .82385%. and all of baseball journalism is reporting them as ready to pounce. These are the same people who thought Howard was the NL MVP and Morneau was the AL MVP last year... when he was only the third best player on his own team. Bruce Miles and a few choice others aside, baseball journalists know less than the people they're reporting to.
  8. Rob
    If he gets 3-4 more years of padding stats at his current level, or just slightly below, there's no way he shouldn't get in.
  9. Rob
    As of this morning, BP's playoff odds report suggests that the Cards have a .97090% chance of making the playoffs. If you look at the PECOTA-adjusted report, that number falls to .82385%.
  10. Rob
    Which is more likely? 1. The Cubs recent stretch is essentially a self-correction for our impossibly bad record in one-run games from earlier in the season. 2. The two or three passed balls our new catchers have saved has been enough to more than make up for the fact that they have two or three hits over the last month. Not only that, but it's enough of a significant improvement that its helping carry this team to new heights?
  11. Rob
    I'd trade Izturis plus his whole salary just for the roster spot.
  12. Rob
    First off, I'll post what I damn well want to. If you've got a problem with being shown up, get smarter. Secondly, for somebody talking about not knowing how to use stats, you sure as hell don't know when to use WARP1 vs. WARP3. If we were comparing Ichiro to Enos Slaughter... sure. Comparing him to contemporaries, he's posted WARP1s of 9.0, 7.2, 6.8, 8.6, 6.9, and 7.0. He's at 5.8 so far this year, but based on his average of about 7.5 WARP, I doubt he keeps up the pace. Finally, aren't you the one who started bitching about my grasp of the word "superstar"? You started the damn semantic argument. Don't like em? Stop starting them.
  13. Rob
    Yeah, you're probably right. But Ichiro's production doesn't have to fall off more rapidly to make him less of an asset more quickly. Let's face it, Ichiro is valuable, but he's not a superstar. If he falls off much at all, he's Juan Pierre with a cannon arm instead of Ichiro... and there's a huge difference. While Ichiro is the posterboy for all BA yet no good OBP, he's still a superstar player. Not because of his bat as much as his defense. He's a tremendous defensive player at CF and RF. BP's "Stars & Scrubs" chart for Ichiro... posting his calculated chance to perform at certain level for the next few years. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/suzukic01_004.gif Edit: Granted, that is just for his bat... but his defense, while great, isn't enough to drag that whole graph up to the point where he's a no-doubt superstar. Edit2: Just for comparison's sake. Pujols http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/pujolal01_004.gif ARod http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/rodrial01_004.gif Vlad http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/guerrvl01_004.gif Aramis http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/ramirar01_004.gif Pie http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/PIE19850208A_004.gif
  14. Rob
    I'd sure be curious to hear which 2 or 3 seasons you're tossing out as less than good. His worst season was still worth over 8 wins. That's very good. 2003: .312/.352/.436/.788, 110 OPS+, 80% SB 2005: .303/.350/.436/.786, 109 OPS+, 80% SB 2006: .322/.370/.416/.786, 109 OPS+, 95% SB Now he did add a significant amount of production in 2006 with his stolen bases, but overall those years aren't terribly impressive. You're missing a whole lot by focusing on OPS+. Above average hitting + outstanding baserunning + gold glove defense adds up to a very productive, well above average player. As I pointed out, at his worst Ichiro's been worth 8+ wins. That's nothing short of very good production. For some perspective, ARod's off year in 2006 was good for "just" 7.3 wins, even with a terrific OPS+ (140). But in 2004 ARod was good for 10 wins despite an OPS+ of "just" 133. Using WARP3 is a bit dishonest, isn't it? Using a stat meant to compare current players to past players instead of the basic WARP which just compares players to each other that year when his yearly score would drop below 7 on the low end... it's a little fishy.
  15. Rob
    Yeah, you're probably right. But Ichiro's production doesn't have to fall off more rapidly to make him less of an asset more quickly. Let's face it, Ichiro is valuable, but he's not a superstar. If he falls off much at all, he's Juan Pierre with a cannon arm instead of Ichiro... and there's a huge difference.
  16. Rob
    Thank God. Ichiro is exactly the sort of player Lou and Hendry nut themselves over... I was very worried we'd trade Pie and try to sign Ichiro to make up for it.
  17. Rob
    CERA is mostly worthless even when used to compare catchers on the same team since so many factors change from game to game (opponent, lineup, weather conditions, etc.) CERA is completely worthless when comparing catchers that don't play for the same team. As for the list of defensive catchers above, I'd say their team's success probably had more to do with the pitching staff they were catching rather than their ability to cause a call a good game. I know what CERA is and it's worth. Don't lecture to me. Then I'm praying you were doing your damndest to be sarcastic before.
  18. Rob
    It absolutely is horrible. It's a horribly inefficient use of available resources. Why on earth would we ever want to bat a man with a .330 OBP in the 2 hole? You move Theriot to 7th or 8th and move everybody else up one slot, and we'd be much better for it. I think that would be the definitition of "most improvement with the money that you actually have." If memory serves, tangotiger's numbers implied a team could gain about 2 games in the standings with an optimized lineup. If we tacked that whole total on Theriot's shoulders, it'd be effectively turning him into JJ Hardy or Jimmy Rollins this season (based on Win Shares). Just for shedding preconceived notions about lineup construction... pretty good deal if you ask me.
  19. Rob
    Pass
  20. Rob
    I wish. I'd have a 30 HR lead over my opponent thanks to Vlad and Pujols.
  21. Rob
    Sweet. Since Vlad (and Pujols) are on my fantasy team, I think I should get credit for all their dingers tonight in the league. I'd feel pretty confident about my chances.
  22. Rob
    I got sick and tired of listening to this thing. How many did Vlad hit in the final round?
  23. Rob
    Steve Stone could be there with them, talking about how the pitcher should throw a slider low and away. (Note: I like Stoney... but that's all he friggin talks about.)
  24. Rob
    This is disgusting. If they don't just let Kenny Mayne call the whole thing from the kayak, I think I'm gonna have to go to hospital for jackass poisoning.
  25. Rob
    QFT ARod has easily been the best player in the AL. The only other player that even has a case is Magglio, but that's it.
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