Yeah, but their 3rd order winning percentage places them behind the Mets, Braves, and Dodgers. What's the difference between the two? Essentially, you substitute predicted runs based on how everybody is hitting, ballpark, pitching staffs faced, etc... instead of actual runs and runs allowed. It pretty much takes Aramis's .325/.438/.600/1.038 line with 2 outs and RISP and adjusts it down to his normal line and sees what we would have hit against a neutral staff in a neutral park... and then does the same for pitchers that have been unlucky or lucky based on their numbers with 2 outs.