If they make no improvements I'd take the under on 790 without question. You aren't taking into account things like underperformance, injury, and substitutions by inept players. You paint a very rosy pitcher where nobody gets hurt or underperforms. That's how Jim Hendry puts together teams and why he's always so confused when they don't live up to his expectations. The Cubs haven't been an inept offensive ballclub for years by accident. But Jacque Jones underperformed last year, Lee's power was way down, and the entire catching position was below what Geo should provide this year... Claiming potential injuries is such an easy argument... as easy as it is unnecessary to make. We could go get A-rod, Bonds, and Cabrera, and we'd still have "underperformances, injuries, and substitutions by inept players" to worry about. Meph's making a rough estimation about how these players would do -- that's all it is.