i, personally, couldn't care less about home/road splits. arrieta, lester, hendricks, lackey is how i'd go. i could probably be talked into hendricks #2 but it wouldn't be because of home/road. Looking at his home/ road splits http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=hendrky01&year=&t=p these things jumped out at me. He's given up twice as many HRs (9) on the road as he has at home (4). Home ops. is .512 vs .664 on the road. His era is a full 2 runs higher. Not sure if these numbers are important enough of a difference to matter but from a Home/ road splits perspective Lester, Hendricks and Arrieta makes the most sense.