yes, his "one lousy year" is also the most recent. as a player ages, his most recent season is a pretty significant factor in projecting his future. cliff floyd today is not the same player he was in 2005. he's injury prone and on the decline, which leaves his upside at about the level of production murton can be expected to have. the problem with playing floyd is that murton has the potential to produce more than that - floyd doesn't. just for reference, murton's 50th percentile PECOTA projects a WARP of about 3.6. floyd? 2.8. if floyd wasn't so old, i could understand a "down year." at age 34? nope.