CubinNY

I think I have an idea. They are preparing for the future. They turned one good pitcher who will be making a lot of money soon into two good pitchers who won't be making a lot of money as soon. IMO, KW is a very good GM and the Sox seem to have a long term plan based on financial wearwithall and baseball acumen. I really like the move, both strategically and tacticly. I wish the Cubs had some long term thinkers running things.

If Grace played in a different era he might have a chance. Don Mattingly and Grace are similar players and neither will make the HOF.

Floyd is an incredibly streaky hitter. I could see Lou sticking with him through the cold streaks. I have hope that Lou will know how to use Floyd correctly.

I believe they're generated based on the Bill James projections for next year. If James projects DeRosa keeping up last year's stats based on his switch from the AL to the mighty NLC, I guess I can understand that. I still don't want him hitting 3rd. Bill James' DeRosa line: 444 AB, 10 HR, .273/.333./.408 I'd take than line any day from DeRosa. However, Lee, Soriano and Aramis must come close to career averages.

In the immortal words of Nacny Kerrigan, "Why? Why? Why?"

I doubt it. His defensive reputation will probably be enough to make most fans accept his crappiness, especially if he keeps the K totals low and doesn't bitch about the fans being better in LA. Not counting Jones, the early favorite has to be Dempster. Although a slow start by either Ramirez or Soriano could give them a shot. I'd have to go with Marquis, if he starts slow, they'll give him hell. That contract and season last year will be a poor mix to start slowly. Good point. I forgot he was on the team. Denial is not a river in Africa.:-# I fully expect the same consitently inconsistent pitcher. Hopefully Lou has a quick hook.

Not a bad line. I like the WHIP.

Quality?

My guess is that Miller won't last the full season. In addition other pitchers will miss starts. I think there is enough room for everyone. After Z it's the quality I worry about, not the quantity. I think Guzman has a chance to take a spot, but I am going to assume that at least one of Marshall/Guzman/Marmol/Hill/Mateo will be traded. If I had to place a bet on it I would bet Guzman gets traded. He has the highest potential of the group. I hope this isn't the case though.

Wouldn't "sample size" issues be a problem for any projection though? I mean, if they are going to throw them out when comapring projections to actual performance what validity do they have (Unless the projection was for PA)? Because of DeRosa's lack of PAs/season over the corse of his career I think it would be hard to make an accurate projection. I think It would be far safer to look at his career numbers without the fancy math.

enlighten me.

And the Cubs already had 8 candidates for the back of the rotation with similar ZIPS projections: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/cubs_signed_marquis/ Do we have any figures that ZiPS is an accurate predictor? THIS might be of interest to you. If those are correlation coeficients they aren't particularly strong for pitchers. For hitters, they are pretty good. Anything over .5 is considered strong. I think this is the most interesting quote of the article For example, I wouldn't put much stock in a projection on a player like DeRosa who's only reach 500 PAs once.

I have no problem saying that Hendry and Baker did not to help in his development. The way they utilized him was asinine. I'd go so far as to say that they treated him unfairly. Maybe they were trying to teach him a lesson or something. Rookies should be seen and not heard. It's in the Joe Morgan edition of Baseball for Dummies Is that on the shelf next to CubinNY's Entitlements for Rookies? There is nothing at all wrong with making a person earn his spot on the team. Its just unfortunate the Cub's don't apply it to every player on the roster. Entitlements to rookies? Give me a break. In 2005 Hill went from low A to the majors. In his rise to the majors he posted some of the best numbers in all of baseball. By the end of 2005 he pitched 23.6 innings in the bigs. In 2006 he again posted incredibe numbers in Iowa. Then he was up for awhile used sparingly and then demoted. Then he was up again and demoted. Then after the season was well over for the Cubs, he still wasn't called up and the Cubs used Rusch and some others. Then he finally got a chance to work consistently and he pitched pretty well. We still don't know what the Cubs will get out of Hill in 2007, but I have to ask, how does one earn a spot on the team when they aren't given a fair chance? Take a look at Hill's minor league numbers and tell me he didn't deserve a better shot last year. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Rich-Hill.shtml Only one of the worst run teams in baseball would have used Hill they way they did.

Thankfully I never pretended that luck doesn't play a role. I just don't see how any of this is a strong indication that any of these guys is likely to get better next year. I'm not saying that any given player is going to be luckier. It seems like a lot of the departed players were pretty unlucky last year, so the offense was a little worse than it "should have been." So, one can assume that if the 2007 Cubs have more neutral luck rather than bad luck, that they'll get a bump over last year from that as well. Unless seasonal luck doesn't carry over to the next season. Then they will have a 50/50 chance of being unlucky again this season. I'm not convinced that over the course of 162 games chance doesn't even out. I could see chance playing a bigger role in part time player's numbers though. In addition, I would hope that younger players like Cedeno and Izturis can improve.

I have no problem saying that Hendry and Baker did not to help in his development. The way they utilized him was asinine. I'd go so far as to say that they treated him unfairly. Maybe they were trying to teach him a lesson or something. Rookies should be seen and not heard. It's in the Joe Morgan edition of Baseball for Dummies

So do I and all the options are bad except finding a CFer or keeping JJ. Pie isn't ready and if the Cubs put DeRosa in the OF and start Theriot at 2nd it will be another in a long line of long seasons.

That's not true, at least in my case. I'd rather the Cubs didn't pursure Soriano and instead looked to upgrade CF, SS, and 2nd base. I'm glad they've improved (at least on paper) but they still have the same three holes they had at the begining of the off-season. I am hoping they can get something of value for JJ and I have hope for the long term future with Wilken drafting and all the picks they have. However, I don't have much hope for this season.

Agreed.. it doesn't say he failed it, just that maybe the Red Sox are seeking some sort of protection so that the whole thing isn't guaranteed. Smart move on their part. He's not going to succeed in Boston. For one, they're very tough on professional athletes, especially ones who play for the Red Sox. The guys they like most are ones who are perceived as lunchpail guys, like Schilling with his bloody sock, or Damon. Even Manny Ramirez, who'd never be confused for Pete Rose, at least has his particular quirk - he's just sort of goofy and laid back. And consistently putting up lines in the neighborhood of .320/40/120 is certain to win some popularity. Drew, on the other hand, has the type of personality that won't go over well in Boston. He's perceived as a mercenary with no loyalty to any given organization, and he's also perceived as being soft. He's very cool emotionally on the field, but doesn't look like he's really having fun. He's just the type of athlete that Boston doesn't like. I think it'll probably be a disaster within 2-3 years. I tottally agree unless he changes his behaivor. When they were pursuing him I thought to myself that there is no way this can end well. In many ways Red Sox fans are worse than Yankee fans when they don't like a player.

I'm not much into #s myself. If I played and was great or something I'd be honored if someone wanted to wear the same number as me. However, not giving out # is a time honored tradition in sports. Regardless of Sammy's behavior, giving the likes of Jason Marquis #21 says much more about the Cubs than it does Sosa. They built up Sammy, they let Sammy play his boom box, they gave him special treatment. Then when he's no longer useful they destroy him in the media. The Cubs suck and they have no class.

Go Broncos!!!!111!!!1111111 WMU, representin' They should just call this the Pointless Bowl becuase the game is completely pointless.

Please :roll: So, I've looked at this a few hundred times and I still cant figure out what was so disagreeable with the above statement. Wanna help me? I consider the GM's of the past 2 WS champs baseball "guys" They are not going anywhere. Walt Jocketty might be a baseball guy, but the Cardinals definitely have some very smart stat geek type people working for them. Billy Beane is a baseball guy too. Appearently he learned what not to do from his time in the majors.

I agree 100%. Hendry's been in love with Floyd for a while. I fully believe that Hendry will attempt to bring every ex-Marlin whose won a WS to the Cubs. It really is pathetic

he's got moxie, heart, grit. he chews tobacco and slides headfirst into home plate. he doesn't use daggum computers. he can pick the next sammy sosa out of a group of 100 lanky 13 year-old dominicans just by shaking their hands and staring in their eyes. he doesn't write books about himself. That's good. IMO, a baseball guy is someone who played The Game at some level professionally. Someone who's been a coach, a scout, or an instructor in some capacity. Someone who's "payed his dues" and "earned" his way up the latter by sticking with baseball when he wasn't getting paid a lot of money. Knowledge, skill, and ability factor in way down the line.

While there's no true predictive stat, I look for the best overall stat (I prefer XR, but for ease, I'll end up with EqA). Taveras could potentially fill the OBP need at the top as well as a great defensive player in a diff. position to fill, I already mentioned either way he's going to have to improve, which is exactly the same way Pie will have to improve. If he could improve his approach & learn to get out in front and turn on the inside FB, he could become a quality starting CF'er. But Willy's EqA has been .258 .268 .243 Well below .260 (league average) for his career. That's not good.

It's not that bad. If I remember right Bagwell and Biggio had huge backloaded deals. Pettitte, too. The Astros really had a thing for those backloaded contracts. I call it the Enron effect :wink: