CubinNY

He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done? Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes? I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless. Yes, and it's obvious by your previous disagreement of his point and your overuse of the word "guess" that your point is to discredit what he's saying. Everything talking about next year is a guess of some magnitude, to belabor that is beside the point. How would you go about making that evaluation of Gathright '09 v. Abreu '09? One way to NOT do is to pass off wild-ass speculation as some sort of a "method". Just take PECOTA or CHONE and be done with it. The value of their respective contracts makes little difference on the field. However, I wouldn't want to pay Abreu $15 mill. at this point in his career and Gathright is a pinch/runner defensive replacement/25th man. I'm guessing Abreu is looking to start.

I'm not a big fan of trading Vitters for anything short of a perennial allstar. Vitters is probably the most overrated Cub prospect since Bobby Hill. It's comments like these that lead me to believe that the Cubs prospects stand at best half the chance of other team's prospects to succeed. If they don't immediately perform they're "garbage" and people want to chase them away. Nowhere did I say he was garbage.

I'm not a big fan of trading Vitters for anything short of a perennial allstar. Vitters is probably the most overrated Cub prospect since Bobby Hill.

Not making an out is getting the job done. Welcome to the forum. If all things are equal I would much rather have the guy who puts the ball in play. All things are not equal, ever. There is no need to go into detail, not making an out is the #1 goal of a batter.

They could win 95 games and still finish in 3rd place.

You lose, I win. I called Bradford and you said no. Take it like a man.

Not making an out is getting the job done. Welcome to the forum.

I don't really understand how misplays by CF and SS matter more than misplays by LF and RF. They don't, but the frequency of chances and the ground to cover are substantially different. With Pie in CF it would be easier to take Dunn and Soriano at the corners. I'm not sure about Fukudome/hitting partner.

The when healthy part. I don't know if a team can even get insurance on a guy like Sheets. I'm all for going after Lowe. A ground ball pitcher in Wrigley makes me tingle.

Kahrl has to be the first transvestite admitted into the BWAA. GLBT, at least wins one!

I don't get this? Who cares what the circumstances are here? Peavy has a lot of value and his value doesn't suddenly disappear just because Towers is only dealing with the Cubs. The players (that were rumored) that Towers was asking for aren't significant enough to worry about outside of DeRosa. The current makeup of this team suggests to me that time is of the essence in terms of being a legitimate WS contender. Not getting Peavy for what was rumored is really bad. My guess is that Hendry couldn't find a taker for Marquis (at his salary) so he couldn't afford Peavy's salary. If true, whose fault is that?

I agree. Although it can be almost impossible to quantify the number of runs saved by a good defensive player, it should be considered when evaluating the overall impact brought to the team (as TT has done). IMO guys like Dunn and Alou are/were so HORRENDOUS in the field that it negated much of the impact they brought at the plate. I estimate that Alou was good for -5 runs just in persistant stupidity in overthrowing the cutoff man and allowing runners to advance. That's also probably quite generous (to Alou). Defense is overrated in baseball by many, especially in the the corner outfield positions. A guy like Soriano gets a lot of assists because he's a bad defender. A guy like Dunn looks stupid sometimes, but most of the time his error has no game impact whatsoever. A CFer or SS that can't handle his position is another matter though. However, those guys get moved from CF and SS. I'll take Dunn and his errors and you can have most anyone else.

Chasing what won the last WS is exactly Hendry's MO. Unfortunately, what wins every year changes. Staying competitive within the division is also a mantra of the Cubs. Your post exhibits both of those well. It's brought the Cubs nothing. It's one thing if the Cubs had to give up useful players for Peavy, players that can't be easily replaced. Aside from DeRosa none of the players mentioned fit that designation. Unfortunately, we don't really know all the particulars so most of this is speculation but whatever happened, it's apparent that Hendry didn't have all the leverage people assumed he had, or the deal would have gotten done.

If they aren't giving up DeRosa for Peavey why would they give him up for anyone else? It's mindbottling It's mind boggling. And it's not that they were giving up DeRosa, it's that they were going to give up DeRosa and everyone in the organization with more than one vowel in their last name. Mindbottling is from Blades of Glory. Peavey> spare parts. Peavy Him too.

If they aren't giving up DeRosa for Peavey why would they give him up for anyone else? It's mindbottling It's mind boggling. And it's not that they were giving up DeRosa, it's that they were going to give up DeRosa and everyone in the organization with more than one vowel in their last name. Mindbottling is from Blades of Glory. Peavey> spare parts.

If they aren't giving up DeRosa for Peavey why would they give him up for anyone else? It's mindbottling

Is the NFL network not in HD?

Gee, I wonder why you are picking out the worst guys of the proposed package as your example? Could it be because you have a crap argument? Hart is what our 8th starter? You are absolutely correct, losing him would not hurt this team. However, unfortunately for the validity of your point, and for the Cubs, the Padres are asking for more than just Kevin Hart. Losing DeRosa would be a big blow to the team. He was exceptionally good offensively last year, and very good the two prior years. Additionally, his versatility gives the Cubs a lot of options. We don't need to get a guy who can play 3B, incase ARam goes down. We can sign Bradley and not have to worry about him getting injured because DeRo could replace him. Fontenot had a great year last year, but it was in limited time and when he was put in situations to succeed. I like him, but to think he'd be a lock to approach DeRos #s is foolish. Additionally, moving him from the bench to starting 2b takes away one of your better pinch hitters and your middle infield depth, so you'd have to replace that too. Losing Marshall would be a big blow to the depth of the pitching. He has shown that he can be successful out of the pen or in the rotation. With an injury risk like Harden in the rotation, losing our 6th starter would mean instead of going from a top 5 starter in Harden to an average starter in Marshall, we'd (skipping over Hart and Guzman because they were traded too) have to rely on Gaudin, Shark and God knows who after him. Pie and Cedeno I don't mind losing one bit. I don't think they'll be big contributors to the major league team (even if there are injuries) and have long lost their prospect luster. You can sign a back up SS for a mil or so that can replicate Cedeno's production and we already have Johnson to back up CF. Vitters I also don't mind losing. He obviously has a lot of value and is a great prospect, but his value to the Cubs is really as a trading chip, and thats what he'd be used for here. Not long ago we were talking about this deal without DeRosa and things sounded like they were progressing pretty well, even to the point where the "general framework" of the deal was in place. Frankly, that means to me that its not DeRosa as a player that is the issue, its DeRosa's paycheck that is. In that case, I'd much rather trade Kevin Gregg and retain DeRosa (or go back in time and never have traded for Gregg in the first place). Losing Marshall hurts, but I think its palatable, however losing DeRosa isn't. So your hang up is Mark DeRosa ? Do you know how crazy that is? DeRosa and Marshall for Peavey, forget the rest since they don't matter. That's a crap argument.

Are you kidding me? Nope. Not at all. Marshall and Pie would be a nice package for Hermida. Maybe even Marshall and Vitters. Maybe it's not enough. If so, look elsewhere. I'm just baffled that anyone would think you just keep throwing more and more names at someone in hopes that it will be enough when it is obviously clear that the other team has zero leverage. Nobody I know has said anything of the sort. Your' the one who suggested that. The players the Cubs were giving up for Peavey are spare parts. Spare parts are not something that should have held up this deal. I love the idea that making the team better comes down to some sort of pissing contest between Hendry and Towers. I'm really sick of the word leverage. It's pretty obvious that Hendry didn't have the leverage he thought he had or else this deal would have been done. Just trying to stay competitive in the division is not good enough.

Yea I read that too. What a great story though.

The Reds feel they owe us for Josh Hamilton...... Does he have to stick all year ?

When you have the "talent" of the Cubs prospects, it is as close to one as you can get. Just trying to compete within the division thinking at it's finest.

It is frustrating. My guess is that Hendry doesn't want to give up too many spare parts in case something bad happens. I don't think the Cubs are going to get him, I think some other team will though. I hope when this is all over Bruce Miles can give us the inside dope.

Yep. I also see CC turning into a Mo Vaughn situation. Kevin Brown? Mo Vaughn? When the Mets got Vaughn he was 33 years old and was going to miss the entire next season due to injury. Sabathia is nothing like Vaughn. Lowe is nothing like Kevin Brown either. Nothing. Kevin Brown was a washed up 38 year old with a history of arm trouble. Depending on the contract Lowe could be the best "deal" out there. I wish the Cubs would have gone after him.

the public matters not to anyone involved