CubinNY

Correct me if I'm wrong, but what Meph is not attempting to say is that PECOTA doesn't have enough data to make an accurate projection on The Shark. The model is much less accurate for minor leagues and guys with not a lot of PT in the bigs, It's the preverbal "sample size" issue (That's what she said).

If you disregard the Dusty factor, these seem like two no-risk signings for the Reds. I think quite a lot of teams will have a couple of MLB vets as NRI's in spring training; it seems to be part of everyone's annual "you never know..." routine. Yeah, I don't think either is a bad signing on the face of it. The problems start when you consider Dusty is the manager. Ward will start every Sunday when Dusty sports his forefit lineup. Gawd that use to piss me off.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner. It's a pox on baseball that will live forever. No one in baseball (or many of its fans judging by this thread) will really give a damn though, because chix dig the long ball.

I'm not a huge fan of PECOTA projections for players, but historically it seems to be a good approximation model for teams. Last year, just eyeballing things in the NL it seems to have been well within the margin of error for most teams and got the standing almost exactly correct with a few exceptions in relation to order of teams. Last year it had the Giants in last in the West and the Reds, Cardinals, and Astros were off in both order and wins by a good margin. If the projection holds this bodes very well for the Cubs. At least it gives me some hope for my glass half-empty Cubs outlook.

All I know is that the cubs had him working on core training, something that was non-existant in his workout when he played in japan/last year. That's about all I've heard. What's core training?

I don't need to explain it to you. You already know. I'm not interested in a pissing contest here. UZR is not reliable and doesn't account for throwing and throwing is at least half the equation. It's not a measure of performance when it can show that player X is better than league average when a sinkerballer is on the mound and worse than league average when a fly ball pitcher is on the mound. The simple fact that variables other than defense are going into the metric is enough to invalidate it. It's probably useful a gross measure but to use it to see who sucks worse seems a little overblown to me. Explain these UZR numbers for Omar Vizquel: -8.4 2002 2.8 2003 -.2 2004 10.1 2005 6.7 2006 19.9 2007 5.3 2008 Nobody plays that inconsistently from year to year. And that is just one example.

It's awful because it is not a reliable tool. Why should a player's defensive ability fluctuate with whomever is on the mound, or in a different ballpark, or vary wildly from year to year? I know you don't think I know anything about UZR, but I do. I'm just skeptical of judgment aids that are so unreliable. If you do know, then explain it. It's awful because it is not a reliable tool. See above. Reliability and validity are the defining quality indicators of any measurement device. If you don't have one or the other the tool is not useful.

It's awful because it is not a reliable tool. Why should a player's defensive ability fluctuate with whomever is on the mound, or in a different ballpark, or vary wildly from year to year? I know you don't think I know anything about UZR, but I do. I'm just skeptical of judgment aids that are so unreliable.

I don't need to when you can look it up.

Those "stats" are horrible. They are especially horrible for OF. If you've got better ones, feel free to volunteer them. *crickets* the fact that you don't have anything better than a magic rock to keep tigers away doesn't mean you should use the rock (and yes, i realize i've completely changed the context of the reference; i have no idea why this scenario came to mind, but it did) But along the spectrum of magic rock to measuring tape, UZR falls closer to measuring tape than magic rock. No one is saying its perfect, but horrible is a wee bit extreme. Just look at fielding % (catching) or OF assists (throwing). Simply because something is new and shiny doesn't make it useful. It's not like either Duncan or Dunn are super good route runners that get errors on plays others guys wouldn't get to. In addition, UZR and the rest of the fielding stats that try to quantify defensive prowess aren't reliable enough to even cite at this point in time, using them as a judgment aid is about as useful as a magic rock.

Lance Dixson is going to COME UP HUGE for the Cobs this year

http://body.builder.hu/imagebank/starprofile/Tom_Prince.jpg Justin will be useful one day. That guy has an iPod Shuffle.

C'mon Miguel. You're kidding yourself here. First of all, we'd be worse if we didn't make a single move, if only for the fact that we will be expected regress in quite a few areas next season. We weren't a 97 win team heading into the offseason and we certainly aren't one heading out of the offseason. Let's look branch by branch. 1.) Kevin Gregg to Kerry Wood This is a pretty poor downgrade. We go from one of the top ten relievers in the game, who's a good health guy at this point (shove it naysayers you're wrong) and go from a guy, who if we stretched it, would barely qualify among that top fifty relievers in the game. You could make a case for him being outside the top 100 if you wanted to. In the greater scheme of things, it probably costs a few runs in high leverage situations, thanks to Gregg being in the game in the seventh and eighth with a tough jam instead of Carlos Marmol. 2.) DeRosa and Edmonds to Miles and Bradley Well if you throw defense out the window, I'm not sure how you come to the conclusion that we're any better. Mark DeRosa was very very very very very productive last season and Aaron Miles is Neifi Perez without the defense. Sure Bradley's better than Edmonds, except for the fact that Bradley's probably going to get hurt and Edmonds (and the Cubs CFers in general) produced top five centerfield numbers for the Cubs last season. We got a TON of production out of center field last year. The way I see it, Fukudome goes to center, and we still get Fukudome. So we're replacing our CF production with Milton Bradley, and giving Bradley just 500 PAs instead of 650 is a wash. Signing Bradley only let's us keep the offensive production we got in center last year - not improve on it. Our overall team defense might improve in the outfield, as Edmonds was a tree in center, but so is Bradley. I am really seeing these moves as lateral at best and more expensive. I think any improvement we're going to get is going to be from resurgent Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome campaigns, as both players (especially KF) played well below their potential in 2008. 3.) Marquis to Heilman There's no improvement here. We're the same. Marquis and Heilman are interchangeable and this is another lateral move, albeit a cheaper-ish one cash wise. Heilman may end up with a slightly better RA, but the difference is made up in Marquis' elite SP bat, similar to Fat Z. 4.) Harden It's Harden, not Hardin. He's already hurt, to expect more than we got last year is foolish. 5.) Gaudin blows. Shark is good unless he remembers that he doesn't get whiffs. Guzman's an unknown at this point. I do think there's a chance he's the number five by May in the current setup. 1.) Kevin Gregg to Kerry Wood This is a pretty poor downgrade. We go from one of the top ten relievers in the game, who's a good health guy at this point (shove it naysayers you're wrong) Hmmm, something tells me the month-long sabbatical Wood took last year was closer to resting shoulder tendinitis than healing a blister. Don't get me wrong, if that's what Wood has to do each year, I'd still be in favor of him, but that's hardly a good health guy. You also mention the natural regression that will occur from 2008 but you cite the 2008 numbers when countering the 2009 additions. Seems contradicting. Wood was decent last year...good god stop overrating like we gave up Dennis Eckersley at his prime. He was not that good last year and it's not going to hurt us that much I think you got me confused with someone else. I'm of the opinion that the difference between Gregg and Wood is minor at best. They go about different ways of getting nearly the same results.What? Unless you are talking about ERA (which is a piss-poor way to judge a relief pitcher) Gregg is in no way like Wood. http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=304&playerid2=1793&playerid3=&position=P&page=3&type=full

CT was absolutely hilarious after Pujols said he wanted Manny on the Cards. Dozens and dozens and dozens of "SINE MANNY NOW! ! ! HERES HOW!" posts. There are a large number of internet-savvy Cardinals fans who've banned themselves from that painfully obnoxious forum. Always good for a laugh, though. One interesting point that sounded so different, to me, in this thread versus Cardinals fans at home, is what someone mentioned earlier about winning vs. beating the I-55 rival. In St Louis, I'd say most Cards fans would tell you that Cubs fans care more about beating the Cards than they do about winning overall. And I've heard several of my Cubs buddies say the same about Cards fans. Funny. It's not like the Yankees/Red Sox. I think many Cub fans are jealous of the Cardinals success as of late. We still have people that talk about Cardinal pixy dust and don't want to admit what a great GM Jokkerty is/was or a pitching coach that Duncan is. I think LaRussa is really overrated. However, I think Cub fans hate Cardinal fans more than the team. I know I can't stand the self-proclaimed "best fans in baseball" crap b/c they give a standing O to So Taguchi or whatever. It is a much more friendly rivalry than most IMO.

Isn't Olsen a pass through and not really a gain or a loss? I suppose he's a gain and a loss too though. I've got the trades color coded there, so it would have thrown off the individual transactions if I hadn't included him. The FA's are in red, all the trades are lined up by time and listed in order by time. I see, I need to up the prescription on my glasses.

Isn't Olsen a pass through and not really a gain or a loss? I suppose he's a gain and a loss too though.

One of my college roommate's is Stewart Schweigert's brother. Before signing day we went up to Saginaw for a roadtrip and he was driving a new Escalade and sporting a Michigan State hat. I though for sure that the fix was in. He wouldn't even tell his brother though. He ended up going to Purdue b/c Tiller told him he'd give him a shot at WR.

Did the Cubs actually pass on Wieters? I don't really blame them for taking Prior though. Yikes, what a dream, Tex at 1st and Wieters on his way.

Two things. 1.) We shouldn't have been in this situation in the first place (ie don't trade Ceda for Gregg). 2.) You keep Guzman. Wuertz is replaceable, fairly easily. So is Guzman if we keep him in a relief role. But with our five spot in the rotation being a combination of Sean Marshall and Aaron Heilman coupled with the fact that we have no starting pitching prospects in our system worth drek it's not completely out of the realm of possibility for Angel Guzman to end up with the most starts of the three. I really hope Angel gets a fair shake at getting the five slot. Lord knows if he's healthy he's the best man for the job. I tend to agree, but I think Guz's days of starting are over.

It's weird, I don't mind this trade as Wuertz wasn't going to be utilized by Lou. Hendry did everyone concerned a favor. We have to hope one of the two prospects nets the Cubs something in the future. Hendry is the perfect example of how a big payroll can make up for a lot of deficiencies.

This is, in general, the sentiment by everyone here about nearly every move. Fukudome was last season universally loved move. Oops. Who was it that said moves need time to be judged? Nope. I didn't love Fukudome and I wasn't alone. Why do you post here because you seem to hate everything about NSBB? Almost every post of yours is some gross judgment of the entire board. NSBB is full of different opinions on every topic, all you have to do is read a little. Bako is a crap sandwich but the Cubs aren't overpaying for him and backup catchers seem to be hard to find.

Excellent post Blizzau - I like how you point is based on experience and knowledge. It's a ridiculously stupid post. This dude sat on a Federal Grand Jury. That doesn't mean that there is no state or local grand jury. Here is a link to the Grand Jury of Glenn County CA. Just as a for instance: http://www.glenncourt.ca.gov/court_info/grand_jury.html Here is a link to the State of NY Grand Jury process: http://campus.udayton.edu/~grandjur/recent/hnygjw.htm America is the only liberal nation that still uses a Grand Jury system and it is so arcane that only some states still use it. However, can we stop this nonsense of pretending like lying to the Feds is any worse than a lie to your local police officer or in traffic court.

Except that job way way way beneath him. Yeah. Better than unemployment, right? Wow, I had no idea no one had picked him up. He works "free-lance" and has started an academy. I think he's too smart for most managers to handle. You do realize that he was the driving force behind the Kazmir for Victor Zambrano trade, right? So what? He didn't like Kazmir's mechanics and thought he was an injury risk and Kazmir wouldn't listen to him. It was a pretty stupid trade but he didn't make it. I'd take Peterson over anyone else every time.

We already did that by depending on a injury prone pitchers like rich harden, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly and trading for Kevin Gregg and Aaron Heilman. Meanwhile the Cards traded for the greatest SS ever. You don't know how close to true you are. Things could go very bad very quickly for the Cubs Harden pulls a Prior Z is a shell of himself after all the Dusty innings pile up Dempster becomes Dempster Lilly stays the same Kevin Gregg couldn't throw strikes last year and Lou hates relief pitchers who cannot throw strikes Marmol had a terrible winter in the Caribbean If Bradley goes down Fukudome moves back to RF and we have The Car Hopper and Facial Hair manning CF It's a worst case but it's not that far outside of the realm of possiblility

No but he allegedly lied to congress and his case is under review by a federal grand jury. If he lies to them too will he be prosecuted?