He was talking about what to expect out of a player next year, what exactly should he have done? Why do people have such difficulty understanding the context of specific quotes? I made no argument or remark regarding what he should have done. I pointed out the fallacy that the OP had not used guesswork in his point. He, in fact, did use guesswork- regardless of how close to reality those projections tend to be, they are still projections. Hence, they are GUESSES. Educated guesses, sure. But, guesses nonetheless. Yes, and it's obvious by your previous disagreement of his point and your overuse of the word "guess" that your point is to discredit what he's saying. Everything talking about next year is a guess of some magnitude, to belabor that is beside the point. How would you go about making that evaluation of Gathright '09 v. Abreu '09? One way to NOT do is to pass off wild-ass speculation as some sort of a "method". Just take PECOTA or CHONE and be done with it. The value of their respective contracts makes little difference on the field. However, I wouldn't want to pay Abreu $15 mill. at this point in his career and Gathright is a pinch/runner defensive replacement/25th man. I'm guessing Abreu is looking to start.