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CubinNY

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Everything posted by CubinNY

  1. CubinNY
    Yes, I think it's important to keep an eye on the big picture during times like yesterday. The Cubs are a good team even when they aren't playing their best baseball. There are no great teams this year during the regular season. The playoffs are an entirely different season, so getting in is all that matters. We all know that they refuse to exploit the advantages they have over the divisional competition. It doesn't change the calculus even when Plancia is doing his best, Zambrano.
  2. CubinNY
    Oh my
  3. CubinNY
    It’s measurement error. It’s baked into the process. These data aren’t precise indicators, they are general tendencies based on measurement of central tendency, which masks variability. Any time you are talking about what “should” happen and start factoring important things out, like defense and park factors. You are going to create measurement error. It doesn’t mean the data are bad or useless, it means that people should not use the data as an absolute measure. Because defense and park factors always matter because they are real things that effect the outcome of an AB.
  4. CubinNY
    No way back would be complete without Steve “the human rain delay” Trachsel.
  5. CubinNY
    I keep forgetting about the A's, yes, I would agree with that.
  6. CubinNY
    I saw Colorado passed the 100-game loss mark. What a shame. Denver is a great baseball city. They deserve so much better. Outside of Pittsburgh, I can't think of a worse owner in baseball.
  7. CubinNY
    There are no great teams this year, for whatever reason. Right now, if I were a betting man, I would put my money on the Phillies in the NL and the Tigers in the AL.
  8. CubinNY
    They will go as far as the pitching will take them. I like the starters, I do not like the pen. It's time for PCA to decide he's not going to be Javy Baez with more contact skills. Warts and all, they have a shot once they get in the playoffs.
  9. CubinNY
    Without doing any research whatsoever, I'd be willing to bet a small token that all the playoff teams have a similar record against the field. Baseball is just that way. The good teams beat up the bad teams and break even with the other good teams, most of the time.
  10. CubinNY
    1984 was magical (I still have the Ch Tribune newspaper from when they clinched the division), because it was the first time in our lives that the Cubs made the playoffs. We had the equipment managers listening to the radio during football practice to give us updates. Even if the Cubs beat the Padres, I don't think anyone was beating the Tigers that year. For one year, they were one of the best teams in a long, long time.
  11. CubinNY
    Joey Wentz has NBA length wingspan.
  12. CubinNY
    You two and most everyone on either side of this are having two different conversations about the same events. the “meatballs” are saying Happ didn’t perform well. And the “statballs” say, no he actually performed at expectations. The difference is one argument is based on outcome and the other is based on process. One side is basing their attribution on performance and the other side on fundamentals and the future. But if you can’t predict with any certainty when the process and the product will come in closer alignment, the prediction may be true, but has little value. It could be that Happer is two different people at the plate. The left handed version on him is an above average hitter who can do damage. The right handed version is a slightly below average hitter with not much SLG. potential. I don’t know. can a guy slump from one side of the plate? Or have the best version of the weak side not be able to make up for a slumping strong side? All players go cold and hot, this year they seemed to all be on the same schedule.
  13. CubinNY
    I understand the point you are making, but you are making it badly. How many plate appearances has Ian had this season? Unless we really want to go down the reality is wrong well, don't you think his luck would normalize at some point closer to the start of the season than the last 30 or so games? If not, I'm not sure anything means anything.
  14. CubinNY
    lol
  15. CubinNY
    One could make a prediction that player x will be better or worse based on it, but that prediction is uncertain to a degree that Ian Happ has been unlucky for 5 of the six months of a baseball season.
  16. CubinNY
    It's not a predictive stat. What is it predicting? Something that didn't happen? Or what would happen in a perfect world of lolly pops and sugar mountains? It describes the most likely outcome given exit velocity and launch angle, excluding defense and park factors.
  17. CubinNY
    Yes, I'm not saying that either. This entire tanget started when the dude jumped saying I said Happ sucked. I was not commenting on Happ. I was commenting on the absurd notion that Happ has been unlucky all year. Luck, if you want to call it that, is fleeting. By its nature, it is not reproducible or a skill. So if you want to say Happ has been unlucky all year, that's one helluva a skillset.
  18. CubinNY
    xwOBA measures the quality of contact, taking out defense and ballparks. Because he's not at the exact point doesn't mean he was unlucky, it means 1) there is measurement error (there is always measurement error), and/or 2) there are other factors not accounted for in the statistic that account for the discrepancy. Once again, and for the last time, reality is never wrong. It's reality. When a measurement model does not reflect reality, it's the model that is off (not necessarily wrong, but inaccurate), not reality. People underperform and overperform their xwOBA year after year. Does that mean their entire career is unlucky or lucky. IT DOESN'T MEAN IAN IS UNLUCKY. Ian Happ isn't Charlie Brown, and life doesn't work that way.
  19. CubinNY
    Are you making the claim that Happ has had bad luck all year?
  20. CubinNY
    I’m not the one claiming Happ has bad luck all year. Saddle up, I guess, he might need backup
  21. CubinNY
    can't wait to catch Grambling at OSU.
  22. CubinNY
    No, you're merely going to be an ass thread cop, that is your want. Enjoy yourself.
  23. CubinNY
    Take it easy. It’s not remotely viable he’s had bad luck all year. It’s the kind of argument that doesn’t hold water. We’ve had long conversations on luck here. I’m not going to rehash. I’m fine with Happ, so lol again.
  24. CubinNY
    lol
  25. CubinNY
    Braves, not Brewers.
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