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CubinNY

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  1. You two and most everyone on either side of this are having two different conversations about the same events. the “meatballs” are saying Happ didn’t perform well. And the “statballs” say, no he actually performed at expectations. The difference is one argument is based on outcome and the other is based on process. One side is basing their attribution on performance and the other side on fundamentals and the future. But if you can’t predict with any certainty when the process and the product will come in closer alignment, the prediction may be true, but has little value. It could be that Happer is two different people at the plate. The left handed version on him is an above average hitter who can do damage. The right handed version is a slightly below average hitter with not much SLG. potential. I don’t know. can a guy slump from one side of the plate? Or have the best version of the weak side not be able to make up for a slumping strong side? All players go cold and hot, this year they seemed to all be on the same schedule.
  2. I understand the point you are making, but you are making it badly. How many plate appearances has Ian had this season? Unless we really want to go down the reality is wrong well, don't you think his luck would normalize at some point closer to the start of the season than the last 30 or so games? If not, I'm not sure anything means anything.
  3. One could make a prediction that player x will be better or worse based on it, but that prediction is uncertain to a degree that Ian Happ has been unlucky for 5 of the six months of a baseball season.
  4. It's not a predictive stat. What is it predicting? Something that didn't happen? Or what would happen in a perfect world of lolly pops and sugar mountains? It describes the most likely outcome given exit velocity and launch angle, excluding defense and park factors.
  5. Yes, I'm not saying that either. This entire tanget started when the dude jumped saying I said Happ sucked. I was not commenting on Happ. I was commenting on the absurd notion that Happ has been unlucky all year. Luck, if you want to call it that, is fleeting. By its nature, it is not reproducible or a skill. So if you want to say Happ has been unlucky all year, that's one helluva a skillset.
  6. xwOBA measures the quality of contact, taking out defense and ballparks. Because he's not at the exact point doesn't mean he was unlucky, it means 1) there is measurement error (there is always measurement error), and/or 2) there are other factors not accounted for in the statistic that account for the discrepancy. Once again, and for the last time, reality is never wrong. It's reality. When a measurement model does not reflect reality, it's the model that is off (not necessarily wrong, but inaccurate), not reality. People underperform and overperform their xwOBA year after year. Does that mean their entire career is unlucky or lucky. IT DOESN'T MEAN IAN IS UNLUCKY. Ian Happ isn't Charlie Brown, and life doesn't work that way.
  7. Are you making the claim that Happ has had bad luck all year?
  8. I’m not the one claiming Happ has bad luck all year. Saddle up, I guess, he might need backup
  9. can't wait to catch Grambling at OSU.
  10. No, you're merely going to be an ass thread cop, that is your want. Enjoy yourself.
  11. Take it easy. It’s not remotely viable he’s had bad luck all year. It’s the kind of argument that doesn’t hold water. We’ve had long conversations on luck here. I’m not going to rehash. I’m fine with Happ, so lol again.
  12. Measurement error. None of those defensive evaluations should be held tightly. They are only useful in the aggregate and perhaps at the tails. Shaw is playing solid defense. The best thing is he can play either 2nd or 3rd. With his hitting profile he’s a perennial all star 2nd baseman and a solidly above average 3rd baseman.
  13. I'd love if they could keep him in the states and put him on a Schwaber nutrition program with a trainer all offseason. He has a rare talent that bodes well for his success in MLB. He could be a batting champion with an .800ish SLG .400+ OBP in a good year. The picture is from Schwaber's rookie season. The body is similar. The 2nd is just for comparison sake.
  14. Ok, I didn’t pay any attention to preseason football. Is Williams a work in progress or a never will be? How many games is it going to take this year to find out?
  15. Bernstein was/is a legend in his own mind; that's his main problem. I liked Boers and Bernstein because Terry could steer them a bit. To me, he was always auditioning for an ESPN radio gig where big personality matters more than anything else.
  16. we got our mojo back
  17. This is a reminder that the best version of this team is a contender. The worst version is a playoff team. All they need in the playoffs is a few hot starters, the best Palencia, and some SLG.
  18. Why does this game feel like it’s going to be a heartbreaker?
  19. Dodged a bullet in Suarez. When he's hot and when he's not.
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