Top 10 Players Most Likely to be Traded (per Jayson Stark)

[Derwood]

Sorry if this is a repost....search is disabled.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2245437

 

Among the Cub tidbits:

 

- Cubs not listed in teams acquiring Zito (Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Mets)

 

- Phillies would want a front line starter for Abreu:

 

So the matches are minimal. But get ready for rumors about the Cardinals (for Jason Marquis), Orioles (for Erik Bedard), Yankees (for Chien-Ming Wang), Giants (for Jason Schmidt), Astros (for Chad Qualls and Brandon Backe), Diamondbacks (if Javier Vazquez would agree to go to Philadelphia) and A's (for Zito, if there was a way to even out the money). One of them just might come true.

 

Notice who isn't listed :(

 

- Juan Pierre:

 

The Marlins have 10 teams chasing the lovable Pierre. But they might sit back awhile and let the offers flood in (and, with any luck, position Pierre as a lower-budget alternative to Johnny Damon, assuming Damon signs before Groundhog's Day).

 

- Devil Ray players:

 

And it's astounding how many people predict Lugo will land in Atlanta if the Braves lose Rafael Furcal (or possibly with the Dodgers if they lose out).

 

Huff, whose OPS has dropped from .922 to .853 to .749 the last three years, is being marketed to all the teams that lost out on Brian Giles.

 

- Kevin Mench

 

The Blue Jays, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Royals and Pirates are all drooling over Mench, who has hit exactly as many home runs (51) over the last two years as Chipper Jones, Vernon Wells, Jose Guillen and Aubrey Huff.

 

- Alfonso Soriano

 

 

But Soriano also figures to make 10 million bucks this year, thanks to the miracle of arbitration. So the Twins and Cubs -- who both chased him at the trading deadline -- have backed off.

 

- Austin Kearns

 

GM Dan O'Brien has been telling teams he doesn't want to go to spring training with both Kearns and Wily Mo Pena. But even though clubs like the Royals, Cardinals, Cubs and Astros (among others) have massive interest in Kearns, the Reds keep scaring them away by pasting Nieman Marcus price tags on the forehead of a guy who has hit .237, with a .329 on-base percentage, the last two years, and played himself back to triple-A in June.

 

One team that expressed interest this winter said the Reds wanted four players in return -- a starting position player, two of its best young pitchers and a prospect. So either O'Brien prefers to move Pena, or he'll find himself with the same overcrowded outfield next year that he had this year.

 

- Milton Bradley

 

he will be traded -- and probably sooner than later. The Dodgers have had nibbles from the Yankees, Astros and Cubs. But the team most interested is (surprise) Oakland, which has never met a talented bargain it didn't like.

[wilk]

....search is disabled.

 

Speaking of... Why, and is it ever coming back?

[CubsWin22]

Since WHEN is Marquis a "Frontline starter"????

[Derwood]

Since WHEN is Marquis a "Frontline starter"????

 

Or Erik Bedard

[CoolHandLuke]

Since WHEN is Marquis a "Frontline starter"????

 

Same with Bedard, Backe, Wang, Vazquez....

[goonys evil twin]

Stark has a very strange definition of front line starter if some of those names are accurate. Zito and Schmidt fit the description, but I think Jason's front-line status was revoked a couple years ago. Not many of those guys are any better than Jerome Williams.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Since WHEN is Marquis a "Frontline starter"????

 

Same with Bedard, Backe, Wang, Vazquez....

 

If that's all it takes for the Phils to bite, we should get him for not much more than Mitre and Welly.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Williams is every bit as front-line as Wang, Marquis, Backe, and Bedard.

[TheDude]

I'm a little miffed at the Marlins at right now. I don't understand why Castillo and La Duca can go for a cheaper price than Pierre.

 

I also don't understand why the Mets (in the same division) get a cheaper price than the most of the rest of the league.

 

It really stinks that out of the Marlins break-up the only guy the Cubs pursue is going to be the only guy the Marlins get more in return than the players are worth.

[mg420]

I'm a little miffed at the Marlins at right now. I don't understand why Castillo and La Duca can go for a cheaper price than Pierre.

 

I also don't understand why the Mets (in the same division) get a cheaper price than the most of the rest of the league.

 

It really stinks that out of the Marlins break-up the only guy the Cubs pursue is going to be the only guy the Marlins get more in return than the players are worth.

 

how do you know what they will get for pierre? so far there are only rumors as to what he will cost and the rumors this year have been totally bogus to this point.

[TheDude]

Williams is every bit as front-line as Wang, Marquis, Backe, and Bedard.

 

Williams is probably a tier below all of those guys right now, except Wang. And none of them is a 1-2 starter in the MLB right now, though Bedard and Backe have the best chances eventually IMO.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm a little miffed at the Marlins at right now. I don't understand why Castillo and La Duca can go for a cheaper price than Pierre.

 

Paul I kind of understand. He's really not that good. He starts out hot every year, and routinely fades in the 2nd half. I don't think there is a big market for him.

 

The Castillo/Pierre difference, however, is the supply/demand issue. There are several teams looking for a CF. The Cubs showed their hand by expressing how desperate they were for a stereotypical leadoff hitter. The Yankees have been openly searching for CF help for 3 years. Boston has a CF question of their own. Aside from Minnesota, however, there aren't a ton of teams desperate for 2B help, especially not big market spenders looking for help. And everybody knows the Cubs are going to sell Walker for less than he's worth, and Texas has been rumored to want to get rid of Soriano for a while, so they didn't have much of a position to build up Castillo's value. They took the first reasonable offer they could find. Now that they have shed all this payroll, they no longer "have" to trade Pierre. So, they can get a bidding war going with the Cubs, Yankees and possibly others (White Sox?), and always hold the stance that even at a reduced payroll, they can afford to keep Pierre if nothing comes up that entices them.

[goonys evil twin]

Williams is every bit as front-line as Wang, Marquis, Backe, and Bedard.

 

Williams is probably a tier below all of those guys right now, except Wang. And none of them is a 1-2 starter in the MLB right now, though Bedard and Backe have the best chances eventually IMO.

 

I'm not Williams fan, but I'd put him up against Marquis any day.

[TheDude]

I'm a little miffed at the Marlins at right now. I don't understand why Castillo and La Duca can go for a cheaper price than Pierre.

 

I also don't understand why the Mets (in the same division) get a cheaper price than the most of the rest of the league.

 

It really stinks that out of the Marlins break-up the only guy the Cubs pursue is going to be the only guy the Marlins get more in return than the players are worth.

 

how do you know what they will get for pierre? so far there are only rumors as to what he will cost and the rumors this year have been totally bogus to this point.

 

Because of market perception and supply and demand. A whole lot of folks need a CF and there are only a few names really being tossed around (Damon, Pierre, Lofton, Bradley, Finley). Of the names being tossed around, Pierre probably is perceived as the best alternative behind Damon (except of course the by the Beananites).

 

Therefore, like Stark mentions, it is entirely possible the Marlins will sit back and let teams outbid each other and overpay in the end, which they did not do with Delgado, Castillo, La Duca, etc.

 

[edit - Goony I wasn't trying to repeat your observations or steal your thunder. Your post wasn't there when I started my reply.]

[goonys evil twin]

[edit - Goony I wasn't trying to repeat your observations or steal your thunder. Your post wasn't there when I started my reply.]

 

Don't worry about that. I'm not possessive of any ideas on this board (except for the daily farm report that rawaction stole from me :wink: ), and I don't really think anything I write is all that original either.

[mg420]

I'm a little miffed at the Marlins at right now. I don't understand why Castillo and La Duca can go for a cheaper price than Pierre.

 

I also don't understand why the Mets (in the same division) get a cheaper price than the most of the rest of the league.

 

It really stinks that out of the Marlins break-up the only guy the Cubs pursue is going to be the only guy the Marlins get more in return than the players are worth.

 

how do you know what they will get for pierre? so far there are only rumors as to what he will cost and the rumors this year have been totally bogus to this point.

 

Because of market perception and supply and demand. A whole lot of folks need a CF and there are only a few names really being tossed around (Damon, Pierre, Lofton, Bradley, Finley). Of the names being tossed around, Pierre probably is perceived as the best alternative behind Damon (except of course the by the Beananites).

 

Therefore, like Stark mentions, it is entirely possible the Marlins will sit back and let teams outbid each other and overpay in the end, which they did not do with Delgado, Castillo, La Duca, etc.

 

[edit - Goony I wasn't trying to repeat your observations or steal your thunder. Your post wasn't there when I started my reply.]

 

until something happens its all conjecture. if someone would have posted what the marlins would get for castillo or the mets for delgado 2 weeks ago they would have been laughed off the board. its a nice theory but trade theories tend to often wrong.

[NoDak]

Williams is every bit as front-line as Wang, Marquis, Backe, and Bedard.

 

Williams is probably a tier below all of those guys right now, except Wang. And none of them is a 1-2 starter in the MLB right now, though Bedard and Backe have the best chances eventually IMO.

 

I don't know that I would value Willams lower than them right now. I like using ERA+ to evaluate pitchers (quick, easy to get, relatively levels playing field, etc.).

 

Here are their numbers:

Williams: 100 (league average)

Wang: 111

Backe: 87

Bedard: 104

Marquis: 103

 

I personally think that HOU ERA+ was somewhat artificially low because of having a very good pitching staff and a rather poor offense. If I look at the list I would be inclined to agree with you, but then let's throw their AGES in there (in 2005):

Williams (23), Marquis (26), Bedard (26), Backe (27), Wang (25).

 

I am not saying that Williams is particularly "better" than those players listed, but that given that Williams is as likely to improve as any of them I would not put him "a tier below" them right now.

 

While K/BB ratio does bode decently for Bedard in particular, those are the kind of numbers that I think improve with age.

 

If I am Philly right now I am saying, "Look, JH, you have plenty of starting pitching. I would be willing to deal you Abreu straight up for Zambrano" and hope JH bites.

[CuseCubFan69]

Williams is every bit as front-line as Wang, Marquis, Backe, and Bedard.

 

Williams is probably a tier below all of those guys right now, except Wang. And none of them is a 1-2 starter in the MLB right now, though Bedard and Backe have the best chances eventually IMO.

 

I don't know that I would value Willams lower than them right now. I like using ERA+ to evaluate pitchers (quick, easy to get, relatively levels playing field, etc.).

 

Here are their numbers:

Williams: 100 (league average)

Wang: 111

Backe: 87

Bedard: 104

Marquis: 103

 

I personally think that HOU ERA+ was somewhat artificially low because of having a very good pitching staff and a rather poor offense. If I look at the list I would be inclined to agree with you, but then let's throw their AGES in there (in 2005):

Williams (23), Marquis (26), Bedard (26), Backe (27), Wang (25).

 

I am not saying that Williams is particularly "better" than those players listed, but that given that Williams is as likely to improve as any of them I would not put him "a tier below" them right now.

 

While K/BB ratio does bode decently for Bedard in particular, those are the kind of numbers that I think improve with age.

 

If I am Philly right now I am saying, "Look, JH, you have plenty of starting pitching. I would be willing to deal you Abreu straight up for Zambrano" and hope JH bites.

 

I wonder if they could expand that and trade Z and Patterson for Abreu and Michaels?

[cubbyvirus00]

Dont trade Z plz.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I wouldn't trade Zambrano for Abreu straight up unless, Philly eats considerable salary and/or throws a prospect back, such as Floyd or Hamels.

 

I would trade Zambrano and Wellemeyer for Abreu, Floyd, and Padilla.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Williams is every bit as front-line as Wang, Marquis, Backe, and Bedard.

 

Williams is probably a tier below all of those guys right now, except Wang. And none of them is a 1-2 starter in the MLB right now, though Bedard and Backe have the best chances eventually IMO.

 

I don't know that I would value Willams lower than them right now. I like using ERA+ to evaluate pitchers (quick, easy to get, relatively levels playing field, etc.).

 

Here are their numbers:

Williams: 100 (league average)

Wang: 111

Backe: 87

Bedard: 104

Marquis: 103

 

I personally think that HOU ERA+ was somewhat artificially low because of having a very good pitching staff and a rather poor offense. If I look at the list I would be inclined to agree with you, but then let's throw their AGES in there (in 2005):

Williams (23), Marquis (26), Bedard (26), Backe (27), Wang (25).

 

I am not saying that Williams is particularly "better" than those players listed, but that given that Williams is as likely to improve as any of them I would not put him "a tier below" them right now.

 

While K/BB ratio does bode decently for Bedard in particular, those are the kind of numbers that I think improve with age.

 

If I am Philly right now I am saying, "Look, JH, you have plenty of starting pitching. I would be willing to deal you Abreu straight up for Zambrano" and hope JH bites.

 

It's worth pointing out that Williams was significantly better as a Cub.

 

As a Giant: 64 ERA+

As a Cub: 109 ERA+

Total: 100 ERA+

 

As a Cub he was better than everyone except Wang, with not much difference between them.