B.J. Ryan to Blue Jays

Drew Doughty · November 26, 2005

Well...maybe not...

http://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article.jsp?content=20051125_194301_4524

RockTheIvy · November 26, 2005

Sometimes overpaying is okay. I think BJ Ryan is a player a team can overspend for. He is just awesome. However I think the Jays have a few other spots that they should have addressed before going after a closer.

MeatampPotatoesMan · November 26, 2005

^^^^^^^^^^ why?

To have all your eggs in one basket for ONE pitcher, is suicidal.

Over 1/2 of their roster is making close to the league minimum. They actually use younger players to fill roster spots. With that kind of base, you can afford to take risks like this.

Eyre and Howry have both had significant medical injuries. Ryan hasn't to my knowledge. Spreading the risk between two relievers for a similar amount of cash per year may be smart considering their troubles keeping healthy.

Having all their eggs in one basket? The Jays are increasing payroll significantly and have quite a bit of young talent to lean on. The Cubs aren't in the same position. We're going to have to spend big time to keep the talent we have (Lee, Prior, Z).

TrueBlueCubFan · November 26, 2005

This makes the Dempster signing look like a steal. 3 yr. 15.5 mil

Yup.

Here's Ryan v. Dempster, and remember that Demp began 2005 in the rotation:

http://www.baseballreference.com/r/ryanb.01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dempsry01.shtml

Anyone have Dempster's closer-only stats?

Dempster as a reliever in 05':

4-0

57 G

1.85 ERA

33/35 sv/svo

58.1 IP

46 H

12 ER

1 HR

3 HBP

27 BB/ 53 SO

Fred Hornkohl · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?

          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0

MeatampPotatoesMan · November 26, 2005

We all figured it would take 9 or 10 a year to get him. It's a lot of money, but not that surprising, I guess. (Other than the years)

That's what shook me - 3 years made more sense. The spending is over the top so far this year, and it ain't just Hendry.

Well, Wagner was offered 4 years, and Ryan is younger (with far less mileage on his arm), so I guess thats not too surprising either.

It's free agency and there are a ton of teams with money to spend and fans to please by bringing in the bigger names.

So its okay to spend if you bring in a "bigger name". Just clarifying. If Hendry had done this deal instead of the Eyre and Howry deals, you would have been okay with it b/c Ryan is the "bigger name"?

No, it's ok to overspend on pen arms that have a reasonable chance of putting up similar numbers throughout the life of their contracts. You honestly think Eyre and Howry are going to put up similar numbers to 2005 for 3 years? Ryan has a greater chance to keep his 2005 numbers for 5. Look at how their stats trend:

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=168&position=P&page=3&playerid2=237&playerid3=1300

Eyre and Howry are very likely to take significant downturns in the next 3 years. Ryan might be in trouble come the last year of his contract.

imb · November 26, 2005

This makes the Dempster signing look like a steal. 3 yr. 15.5 mil

Yup.

Here's Ryan v. Dempster, and remember that Demp began 2005 in the rotation:

http://www.baseballreference.com/r/ryanb.01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dempsry01.shtml

Anyone have Dempster's closer-only stats?

Dempster as a reliever in 05':
4-0
57 G
1.85 ERA
33/35 sv/svo
58.1 IP
46 H
12 ER
1 HR
3 HBP
27 BB/ 53 SO

Yeah, those are really good. I just hope he either a.) lowers the walk rate or b.) keeps that HR/A rate, otherwise his numbers could get ugly

MeatampPotatoesMan · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0

What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.

TrueBlueCubFan · November 26, 2005

This makes the Dempster signing look like a steal. 3 yr. 15.5 mil

Yup.

Here's Ryan v. Dempster, and remember that Demp began 2005 in the rotation:

http://www.baseballreference.com/r/ryanb.01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dempsry01.shtml

Anyone have Dempster's closer-only stats?

Dempster as a reliever in 05':
4-0
57 G
1.85 ERA
33/35 sv/svo
58.1 IP
46 H
12 ER
1 HR
3 HBP
27 BB/ 53 SO

Yeah, those are really good. I just hope he either a.) lowers the walk rate or b.) keeps that HR/A rate, otherwise his numbers could get ugly

His H/IP rate is also very impressive. If he does improve on his BB/SO rate he could turn into a dominant type closer.

SouthSideRyan · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays haven't been close to the playoffs in awhile. Tougher division or not, they do not have the appeal of a winning club over the Cubs.

Pretty bad move by Ricciardi.

NorthsideAvenger · November 26, 2005

First: :shock: :roll: :shock:

Second: As much as people are hating on Hendry for overspending, the BJ Ryan is simply mindboggling stupid. BJ Ryan is a good closer (not great, yet) but considering his numbers aren't significantly better then Dempters (as a reliever) in 2005, the Blue Jays should be hanged upside down by their toes on the flap pole. To pay twice as much as the Cubs did for Dempster is simply reeks of desparation. I rather have Howry and Eyre at a combine $7.7 then BJ Ryan at over $9 mill, simply because Eyre and Howry's contracts would/will be easier to move (if nec.) then BJ Ryan. Because the difference between Howry/Eyre and Ryan, is that in two yrs, if the Cubs would pick up a portion of the contract those two could be move to any team (hoping we won't need to move them, because here's hoping that are very good for the Cubs), whereas with Ryan, in 3 yrs....the Blue Jays will be begging Boston, Baltimore, LA, somebody to take him off their hands.

Third: This messes up what the Mets are trying to do with Wagner. There is no way Wagner signs for 3 for $30 mill or 4 for $40 mill. But hey.... ](*,) to any team willing to pay $10 mill per for a 34 yr old closer. And :-s for the Canadian to give a pitcher who just complete his first season as closer to a slightly less then $10 mill per.

Fourth: I know Dempster loves Chicago, but somewhere in the back of his mind he must be...... :shock: at the fact he could had gotten more.

:oops: and FIXED.

Edited November 26, 2005 by NorthsideAvenger

RynoRules · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0

My point was only to refute Meat's argument; I certainly realize the differences between the two franchises. My point is only that the notion that they have to overpay b/c they haven't won a WS since 1993 is as silly as saying the Cubs have to do the same b/c they have not won since 08'.

RynoRules · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0
What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.

I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.

MeatampPotatoesMan · November 26, 2005

2005 Stats as relievers:

IP BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP K/BB

Ryan Dempster 55.3 4.07 7.97 0.16 1.19 1.96

BJ Ryan 70.1 3.33 12.80 0.51 1.14 3.85

Blueheart05 · November 26, 2005

First: :shock: :roll: :shock:

Second: As much as people are hating on Hendry for overspending, the BJ Ryan is simply mindboggling stupid. BJ is a good closer (not great, yet) but considering his numbers aren't significantly better then Dempters (as a reliever) in 2005, the Blue Jays should be hanged upside down by their toes on the flap pole. To pay twice as much as the Cubs did for Dempster is simply reeks of desparation. I rather have Howry and Eyre at a combine $7.7 then BJ Ryan at over $9 mill, simply because Eyre and Howry's contracts would/will be easier to move (if nec.) then BJ Ryan.

Third: This messes up what the Mets are trying to do with Wagner. There is now way Wagner signs for 3 for $30 mill or 4 for $40 mill. But hey.... ](*,) to any team willing to pay $10 mill per for a 34 yr old closer. And :-s for the Canadian to give a pitcher who just complete his first season as closer to a slightly less then $10 mill per.

Fourth: I know Dempster loves Chicago, but somewhere in the back of his mind he must be...... :shock: at the fact he could had gotten more.

FIXED :D

Anyway, I guess this means we can all cut Hendry so slack about his bullpen signings. It seems this offseason is record breaking as it relates to the money and time given to relievers.

Edited November 26, 2005 by Blueheart05

MeatampPotatoesMan · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0
What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.
I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.

I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close.

How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay.

So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?

RynoRules · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0
What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.
I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.
I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close.

How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay.

So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?

I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do......

Roast · November 26, 2005

Wow.

MeatampPotatoesMan · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0
What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.
I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.
I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close.

How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay.

So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?
I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do......

The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close.

Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7

ChiSox Payroll (highest in division $75M) to Twin's Payroll ($57M): 1.3

Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6

Edited November 26, 2005 by Meat&PotatoesMan

RynoRules · November 26, 2005

Wow.

Your location says it all...

RynoRules · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0
What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.
I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.
I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close.

How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay.

So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?
I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do......
The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close.

Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7

Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6

OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc...

mhuber92211 · November 26, 2005

Isn't Black Friday the day for Bargains? Then again, many people spend a lot of money today too :D

I Bought a new TV! Yeah Me!

YearofDaCubs · November 26, 2005

I can understand giving 8mil for a Ryan or Wagner but come on 10mil is just ridiculous.

MeatampPotatoesMan · November 26, 2005

The Blue Jays have won a ton more than the Cubs, so I don't think that "he has to overpay to bring in talent" argument holds water. Hendry isn't exactly pitching a winning tradition to FAs.

RR, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, as I realize that the Blue Jays have had a much better go of it over the last, say, 15 years. But, come on, Toronto hasn't had a franchise long enough to even talk about a winning tradition. After another 7,500 wins or so, then we can talk, eh?
          1876 thru 2005                            World Series
team                        W       L     pct    PA     W     L

Chicago Cubs             9835    9291   0.514    14     2     8
Toronto Blue Jays        2258    2304   0.495     5     2     0
What division are the Jays in again? It takes more than a so-so team to make it to the playoffs in the AL East.
I'd submit that the NL Central will be the second toughest in the game this year.
I submit that we match up well against the Cards and Astros, while the Jays don't against the Sox/Yankees. The Jays are also further away from their competition than we are (2005's nose dive nonwithstanding). Their budgets aren't even comparably close.

How are the Jays supposed to close the gap? Trade prospects? That doesn't benefit a smaller market team (small compared to the Yankees and Sox). Free Agency has to be the difference maker. Who isn't overpaid in free agency. The question is how much you are going to over pay.

So how doesn't Riccardi have to "overpay to bring in talent?" Tell me how he gets his team into the playoffs without free agency?
I just want to make sure I have this right: Its ok to overspend b/c you exist in a div. with overspenders. This of course can be contrasted with the Twins and A's, who are low-budget teams that rarely overspend but still win b/c they make intelligent baseball moves on a budget...and coexist in part with teams that spend more...like the Jays do......
The A's do compete with higher payroll teams, but we're talking about the biggest spenders in the game in the Yankees and the BoSox. It isn't even proportionally close.

Angels Payroll (highest in division $95M) to A's Payroll ($56M): 1.7

Yankees Payroll (highest in division $206M) to Jay's Payroll ($45M): 4.6
OK, so if the A's played in the AL East, it would be okay to overspend...no matter their budget...or the "true" value of the players...etc...

The difference between the competition for the A's and the Jay's is substantially different (twice as much $ wise). The A's can compete in their division, but not dominate. That should tell you something. Money does matter. It places limitations on what you can acquire. When the teams in your division are spending 4 TIMES AS MUCH AS YOU (not 1.5 times as much like the A's) you have to take risks to be competitive. You can't wait for your farm system to produce 2-3 studs at the same time.

Seriously, tell me what the Jays are supposed to do. You have all sorts of criticisms right now, but you won't back anything up. I at least qualify and quantify my criticisms of Hendry.

frostwyrm · November 26, 2005

This is more proof that closers are grossly overvalued. It's insane to pay $9.4M for 5 seasons for a guy who will pitch maybe 70 innings, many of them against the bottom of the opposing order with a multi-run lead and nobody on base.

B.J. Ryan to Blue Jays

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