Quick Analysis of the Cincinnati Reds

[HoopsCubs]

Everyone figures the Reds will be active this offseason, and believe they will be looking to trade hitting for pitching.

 

Here's a quick analysis of their numbers:

 

(1) $60M payroll in 2005; haven't heard anything yet to suggest that the number will be drastically higher or lower in 2006

 

(2) 6 guys under contract for 2006 at $36M

Griffey-12.5 (some deferred-call it 2.5M)

Casey-8.5

Milton-8.5

Wilson-3.75

Weathers-1.5

Mercker-1.35

 

(3) 8 guys who appear to be arbitration eligible

Dunn-4.6

Ortiz-3.55

LaRue-3.0

Kearns-0.9

Valentin-0.4

Harang-0.4

Pena-0.4

Lopez-0.4

 

That $13.5M from 2005 could easily be $20M in 2006.

 

(4) Assuming for a minute that none of the arbys are non-tendered or dealt, there would only be $4M ($6.5M if you include Griffey's deferred dough) left to fill 11 positions.

 

My conclusion: As it stands now, there does not seem to be adequate cash to address pitching, so the analysts are right, and we'll see 1 or 2 guys dealt.

 

Just a guess: If Anaheim steers clear of Manny Ramirez, could you see them trading some of their good prospects for Adam Dunn and Jason LaRue. That move would then give the Reds some payroll relief to go after starting pitching.

 

What are your insights on the Reds?

 

 

Hoops

[USSoccer]

If Anaheim asked for Dunn, the Reds would probably hold out for Erwin Santana and that SS prospect they have.

 

If I were O'Brein, I would look to deal both Pena and Dunn.

[rocket]

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Kearns is traded to the Cubs.

[USSoccer]

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Kearns is traded to the Cubs.

 

I would be a little. It would make more sense for Cincinatti to trade the guys who have the most value. That team needs a lot of help. They aren't close to contending in this division. If they could sell Dunn and Pena off for a combined 6 players, 2 or 3 of them being near ML ready arms, they'd be much better off than trading Kearns, who's value is much lower, to us for maybe a couple bulk rule 5 arms.

 

Plus, why would we want Kearns? To play RF? I'd be dissapointed in that. LF? I'd be bloody angry at that. Can he play CF?

[fromthestretch]

Everyone figures the Reds will be active this offseason, and believe they will be looking to trade hitting for pitching.

 

Here's a quick analysis of their numbers:

 

(1) $60M payroll in 2005; haven't heard anything yet to suggest that the number will be drastically higher or lower in 2006

 

(2) 6 guys under contract for 2006 at $36M

Griffey-12.5 (some deferred-call it 2.5M)

Casey-8.5

Milton-8.5

Wilson-3.75

Weathers-1.5

Mercker-1.35

 

(3) 8 guys who appear to be arbitration eligible

Dunn-4.6

Ortiz-3.55

LaRue-3.0

Kearns-0.9

Valentin-0.4

Harang-0.4

Pena-0.4

Lopez-0.4

 

That $13.5M from 2005 could easily be $20M in 2006.

 

(4) Assuming for a minute that none of the arbys are non-tendered or dealt, there would only be $4M ($6.5M if you include Griffey's deferred dough) left to fill 11 positions.

 

My conclusion: As it stands now, there does not seem to be adequate cash to address pitching, so the analysts are right, and we'll see 1 or 2 guys dealt.

 

Just a guess: If Anaheim steers clear of Manny Ramirez, could you see them trading some of their good prospects for Adam Dunn and Jason LaRue. That move would then give the Reds some payroll relief to go after starting pitching.

 

What are your insights on the Reds?

 

 

Hoops

 

This could be an opportunity for the Angels to sell high with Brandon Wood.

[Outshined_One]

Apparently the Reds are going to be sold to new owners by the end of the year.

 

Link 1

 

Link 2

 

One wonders what effects this will have on everything.

[Jazz]

I also wouldnt be suprised to see if Griffey's contract would be shopped around to teams like the yankees, and angels, without expecting much in return.

 

If the cardinals get into negotiations with the Reds about Dunn, the cubs have to top every offer, even if it means getting both Dunn AND Giles :), just out of blocking the cardinals from acquiring them.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Anyone willing to take a chance on a Griffey trade? Maybe something along the lines of Mitre + Fontenot + B-level prospect?

[YearofDaCubs]

Anyone willing to take a chance on a Griffey trade? Maybe something along the lines of Mitre + Fontenot + B-level prospect?

Sure, if they add Dunn.

[USSoccer]

Anyone willing to take a chance on a Griffey trade? Maybe something along the lines of Mitre + Fontenot + B-level prospect?

 

I don't know that Griffey would waive his NTC to come here.

[CuseCubFan69]

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Kearns is traded to the Cubs.

 

He seems to be a Hendry favorite IMO....I see him going to the Cubs too if they don't get Giles.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm not sure about Griffey. How many years does he have left on that deal?

[RynoRules]

Wow. Mid-mkt team with 36 mill tied up in a half-dozen players. They have no choice but to dump salary.

 

I don't see JH taking Griffey's K. I think its more likely he winds up with one of the NY teams. The Mets have more to trade, IMO.

 

Would Griffey accept a move to LF? Mets have an OF of Griff-Beltran-Floyd (if he isn't dealt). Not bad, when healthy.

[radarluv1]

i've heard griffey come up more than once on local STL sports radio. he'd have to move to another OF spot, but at this stage of his career why not. i think he'd waive his NTC to go to the league favorite. the reds would have to eat some of it, but if hes going to fall apart i hope its in the new busch

[Backtobanks]

Anyone willing to take a chance on a Griffey trade? Maybe something along the lines of Mitre + Fontenot + B-level prospect?

 

I think Griffey might be an interesting option if the Reds pick up a lot of his contract and they don't ask for too much in return. Griffey for 2/3 of a season still outproduces most OF. Of course, the Cubs had better have a decent reserve OF. Also, we couldn't have Griffey and Nomar on the same team (especially with Wood).

[TheDude]

I wouldn't at all be surprised if Kearns is traded to the Cubs.

I would be very surprised. Dealing Kearns gives them no salary relief and does nothing to help mitigate the financial crunch that forces them to deal in the first place.