The Braves as a Trading Partner

[YearofDaCubs]

9-10 mil for Furcal? I like him and all but that is a pretty steep price.

 

I really don't see a $9 million difference between Furcal and Cedeno. I think Cedeno will match Furcal within 2 years. Of course, that's assuming Dusty will play him.

I'm all for having Cedeno start but in order for that to happen we have to strengthen our OF by having Murton and two other players who are currently not on the roster. Giles and someone else would be nice.

[WrigleyinEngland]

I like cedeno but saying he will out peform Furcal in 2 years for me is a stretch, however if you can get me castillo manning 2nd i am all for cedeno instead of furcal. Is anyone else thinking that Hendry is hell bent on getting Furcal and that is why ronnie will play 2nd at winter ball??.

[JeffH]

We need to find a long term leadoff man who plays a position other than CF. Furcal is the guy.

 

The last thing we need is RumDum trying to turn Felix Pie into a leadoff hitter.

[WrigleyinEngland]

JeffH, I think you are bang on with this. I am nervous about giving furcal the money because of his personal history and his inconsistancy however as a lead off hitter he sure would take the pressure of Felix when he gets to the majors. Pie would be able to feel his way in rather than being forced in to a position he is not comfortable.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

We need to find a long term leadoff man who plays a position other than CF. Furcal is the guy.

 

The last thing we need is RumDum trying to turn Felix Pie into a leadoff hitter.

 

Trade for Luis Castillo and pass on Furcal.

[JeffH]

How is Castillo physically? The last thing I want is a hobbled Castillo with less range than Todd Walker.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

How is Castillo physically? The last thing I want is a hobbled Castillo with less range than Todd Walker.

 

I think Castillo would be a very big upgrade defensively over Walker.

[JeffH]

Trade for Luis Castillo and pass on Furcal.

 

Personally, if Castillo's healthy, I'm for getting them both.

 

Trade for Bradley and Tracy or Kearns.

[JeffH]

I think Castillo would be a very big upgrade defensively over Walker.

 

Obviously, unless his legs are shot. A healthy Castillo is probably the NL's best defender at 2B.

[Backtobanks]

I like cedeno but saying he will out peform Furcal in 2 years for me is a stretch, however if you can get me castillo manning 2nd i am all for cedeno instead of furcal. Is anyone else thinking that Hendry is hell bent on getting Furcal and that is why ronnie will play 2nd at winter ball??.

 

Personally, I don't understand all of this man-love for Furcal. He is "okay" as a leadoff man, has speed, and has good defense. To me that's not a $9 million SS. Lugo from Tampa Bay is comparable, but not a free agent. I hope the Braves decide to sign him and we go after the younger Giles or Castillo at 2nd. To me spending $9 million on a guy because he's better than what we had last year makes no sense. $9 million ought to get you a star player at any position.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Castillo's line this year: 301/394/374. He had a 988 F% and an 829 ZR.

 

Walker (who I'd choose over any 2b not named Giles or Castillo):305/355/474 with a 985 and an 802 ZR.

 

They are pretty identical at the plate. Castillo has the advantage in OBP while Walker has a good deal more slugging. Castillo's speed makes him a better lead-off option. While the defensive numbers seem to indicate that they are close, I think the gap is a bit larger than they indicate.

 

I'd love to keep Walker, but if we can get Castillo (and especially along with Bradley and Lowe as the rumor stated) I'd jump all over that.

[nilodnayr]

I forgot how the Hampton deal worked out for the Braves...doe anyone remember the exact deal?

 

Here's the full story:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1118/1462593.html

 

First, the Marlins acquired Hampton, outfielder Juan Pierre and $6.5 million from the Rockies in exchange for Johnson, Wilson, left-handed reliever Vic Darensbourg and second base prospect Pablo Ozuna.

 

 

Florida was anxious to dump the contracts of Johnson ($26 million over the next three years) and Wilson (owed $28 million through 2005). But in order to move Hampton, the Marlins agreed to pay Atlanta $30 million over the next three years.

 

 

The Braves sent the Marlins reliever Tim Spooneybarger, who was 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA and one save in 51 games, and minor league pitcher Ryan Baker. Spooneybarger could become Florida's closer.

 

 

Atlanta is on the hook for only $5.5 million of Hampton's contract over the next three years, then picks up the remainder of what he is owed: $13.5 million in 2006, $14.5 in '07 and $15 million in '08.

 

 

But the first three years were crucial, increasing the possibility of the Braves re-signing Glavine and/or Maddux.

 

Considering the Braves will get insurance $ for because of Hampton's injury I think they did alright.

 

Thanks CFICT! Do the Braves get reimbursed the whole salary? Also, is Hampton done for his career?

 

I've ready anywhere of 66% to 80%. He's out until 07 with Tommy John surgery. I guess this wasn't a good deal for the braves after all.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2167545

 

Have you heard those percentages specifically on the Hampton contract? I've heard that insurance agencies won't insure pitcher's contracts for more than 3 or 4 years, because of the unpredictability of their chance to get hurt with the strain on their arm. I highly doubt any agency is insuring Hampton's contract at this point, and if they are, the premiums are likely ridiculously high (as in over the 1M range). I don't think we know for sure, but the fact that the Braves are worried about money is a pretty good indicator that very little, if any of Hampton's contract will be reimbursed by insurance.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I forgot how the Hampton deal worked out for the Braves...doe anyone remember the exact deal?

 

Here's the full story:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1118/1462593.html

 

First, the Marlins acquired Hampton, outfielder Juan Pierre and $6.5 million from the Rockies in exchange for Johnson, Wilson, left-handed reliever Vic Darensbourg and second base prospect Pablo Ozuna.

 

 

Florida was anxious to dump the contracts of Johnson ($26 million over the next three years) and Wilson (owed $28 million through 2005). But in order to move Hampton, the Marlins agreed to pay Atlanta $30 million over the next three years.

 

 

The Braves sent the Marlins reliever Tim Spooneybarger, who was 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA and one save in 51 games, and minor league pitcher Ryan Baker. Spooneybarger could become Florida's closer.

 

 

Atlanta is on the hook for only $5.5 million of Hampton's contract over the next three years, then picks up the remainder of what he is owed: $13.5 million in 2006, $14.5 in '07 and $15 million in '08.

 

 

But the first three years were crucial, increasing the possibility of the Braves re-signing Glavine and/or Maddux.

 

Considering the Braves will get insurance $ for because of Hampton's injury I think they did alright.

 

Thanks CFICT! Do the Braves get reimbursed the whole salary? Also, is Hampton done for his career?

 

I've ready anywhere of 66% to 80%. He's out until 07 with Tommy John surgery. I guess this wasn't a good deal for the braves after all.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2167545

 

Have you heard those percentages specifically on the Hampton contract? I've heard that insurance agencies won't insure pitcher's contracts for more than 3 or 4 years, because of the unpredictability of their chance to get hurt with the strain on their arm. I highly doubt any agency is insuring Hampton's contract at this point, and if they are, the premiums are likely ridiculously high (as in over the 1M range). I don't think we know for sure, but the fact that the Braves are worried about money is a pretty good indicator that very little, if any of Hampton's contract will be reimbursed by insurance.

 

 

Yes, in fact it's contracts like Hampton's that made insurance companies decide to stop giving out so many years. Great observation though!

[Uber]

Give me Giles. Barrett > Estrada. Jorge and Ramirez both scare me.

[nilodnayr]

I forgot how the Hampton deal worked out for the Braves...doe anyone remember the exact deal?

 

Here's the full story:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2002/1118/1462593.html

 

First, the Marlins acquired Hampton, outfielder Juan Pierre and $6.5 million from the Rockies in exchange for Johnson, Wilson, left-handed reliever Vic Darensbourg and second base prospect Pablo Ozuna.

 

 

Florida was anxious to dump the contracts of Johnson ($26 million over the next three years) and Wilson (owed $28 million through 2005). But in order to move Hampton, the Marlins agreed to pay Atlanta $30 million over the next three years.

 

 

The Braves sent the Marlins reliever Tim Spooneybarger, who was 1-0 with a 2.53 ERA and one save in 51 games, and minor league pitcher Ryan Baker. Spooneybarger could become Florida's closer.

 

 

Atlanta is on the hook for only $5.5 million of Hampton's contract over the next three years, then picks up the remainder of what he is owed: $13.5 million in 2006, $14.5 in '07 and $15 million in '08.

 

 

But the first three years were crucial, increasing the possibility of the Braves re-signing Glavine and/or Maddux.

 

Considering the Braves will get insurance $ for because of Hampton's injury I think they did alright.

 

Thanks CFICT! Do the Braves get reimbursed the whole salary? Also, is Hampton done for his career?

 

I've ready anywhere of 66% to 80%. He's out until 07 with Tommy John surgery. I guess this wasn't a good deal for the braves after all.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2167545

 

Have you heard those percentages specifically on the Hampton contract? I've heard that insurance agencies won't insure pitcher's contracts for more than 3 or 4 years, because of the unpredictability of their chance to get hurt with the strain on their arm. I highly doubt any agency is insuring Hampton's contract at this point, and if they are, the premiums are likely ridiculously high (as in over the 1M range). I don't think we know for sure, but the fact that the Braves are worried about money is a pretty good indicator that very little, if any of Hampton's contract will be reimbursed by insurance.

 

 

Yes, in fact it's contracts like Hampton's that made insurance companies decide to stop giving out so many years. Great observation though!

So you have heard those quotes specifically for Hamptons contract? I heard the 3-4 year limit in about 2002, so about 2 years after Hampton signed his contract and well before his injury. I work with insurance agencies and if theres one thing they know how to do its manage risk, I just dont see anyone underwriting a policy on that contract that pays any significant amount of money without insane premiums. And again if they were collecting anything significantly they wouldnt have a problem resigning Furcal without doing anything else.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

About Hampton's contract,

 

From October 17th Braves Mail bag:

 

We know Mike Hampton will be out for the entire '06 season. However, since it's due to injury, will insurance pay for all or most of his salary and actually free up some money? -- Dan V., Ringgold, Ga.

 

The Braves haven't disclosed exactly how much of Hampton's salary will be covered. They've simply explained that their settlement will be based on the $13.5 million figure that Major League Baseball uses as the southpaw's 2006 salary.

 

Since acquiring Hampton before the 2003 season, the Braves have prorated his salary over the course of a six-year period. When he returns in 2007, he'll have two years remaining on his contract.

 

 

It seems clear that some of the contract is covered under insurance; the only question is how much?

[stitchface]

I would call the phillies about pat burrell if they are looking to shed payroll and an outfielder.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

So you have heard those quotes specifically for Hamptons contract? I heard the 3-4 year limit in about 2002, so about 2 years after Hampton signed his contract and well before his injury. I work with insurance agencies and if theres one thing they know how to do its manage risk, I just dont see anyone underwriting a policy on that contract that pays any significant amount of money without insane premiums. And again if they were collecting anything significantly they wouldnt have a problem resigning Furcal without doing anything else.

 

The insurance was purchased for the entire length of the contract when Hampton signed. However you are right, insurance stop doing this because of "Albert Belle" type of problems. I believe the max they are willing to go now a days is 3 years. BTW, this is a big reason why I'm not so sure Giles will get more than 3 years.

[nilodnayr]

About Hampton's contract,

 

From October 17th Braves Mail bag:

 

We know Mike Hampton will be out for the entire '06 season. However, since it's due to injury, will insurance pay for all or most of his salary and actually free up some money? -- Dan V., Ringgold, Ga.

 

The Braves haven't disclosed exactly how much of Hampton's salary will be covered. They've simply explained that their settlement will be based on the $13.5 million figure that Major League Baseball uses as the southpaw's 2006 salary.

 

Since acquiring Hampton before the 2003 season, the Braves have prorated his salary over the course of a six-year period. When he returns in 2007, he'll have two years remaining on his contract.

 

 

It seems clear that some of the contract is covered under insurance; the only question is how much?

 

 

Nice pull vance!!! This is my guess...

 

01:75% (6M)

02:70% (6M)

03:55% (6M)

04:33% (4M)

05:32% (4M)

06:22% (3M)

07:20% (3M)

08:20% (3M)

09 25% (5M) Option year

 

Thats 40M in covered salary.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

About Hampton's contract,

 

From October 17th Braves Mail bag:

 

We know Mike Hampton will be out for the entire '06 season. However, since it's due to injury, will insurance pay for all or most of his salary and actually free up some money? -- Dan V., Ringgold, Ga.

 

The Braves haven't disclosed exactly how much of Hampton's salary will be covered. They've simply explained that their settlement will be based on the $13.5 million figure that Major League Baseball uses as the southpaw's 2006 salary.

 

Since acquiring Hampton before the 2003 season, the Braves have prorated his salary over the course of a six-year period. When he returns in 2007, he'll have two years remaining on his contract.

 

 

It seems clear that some of the contract is covered under insurance; the only question is how much?

 

 

Nice pull vance!!! This is my guess...

 

01:75% (6M)

02:70% (6M)

03:55% (6M)

04:33% (4M)

05:32% (4M)

06:22% (3M)

07:20% (3M)

08:20% (3M)

09 25% (5M) Option year

 

Thats 40M in covered salary.

 

I don't understand. How did you come to those numbers?

[nilodnayr]

About Hampton's contract,

 

From October 17th Braves Mail bag:

 

We know Mike Hampton will be out for the entire '06 season. However, since it's due to injury, will insurance pay for all or most of his salary and actually free up some money? -- Dan V., Ringgold, Ga.

 

The Braves haven't disclosed exactly how much of Hampton's salary will be covered. They've simply explained that their settlement will be based on the $13.5 million figure that Major League Baseball uses as the southpaw's 2006 salary.

 

Since acquiring Hampton before the 2003 season, the Braves have prorated his salary over the course of a six-year period. When he returns in 2007, he'll have two years remaining on his contract.

 

 

It seems clear that some of the contract is covered under insurance; the only question is how much?

 

 

Nice pull vance!!! This is my guess...

 

01:75% (6M)

02:70% (6M)

03:55% (6M)

04:33% (4M)

05:32% (4M)

06:22% (3M)

07:20% (3M)

08:20% (3M)

09 25% (5M) Option year

 

Thats 40M in covered salary.

 

I don't understand. How did you come to those numbers?

 

The insured volume (my predicted 40M) is only half of the equation. The other part is the premiums the team pays to continue the policy. I'm assuming the premiums are rather normal, nothing obsene. Underwriting is all based on predicting risk. The longer the contract goes on, the less ability you currently have to predict risk, also compound that with the possibility of career ending injuries. Quickly looking at Hamptons previous career, it doesnt look like he missed any significant amount of time. However, he was 28 when he signed the contract and had 6 full years and 1200 IP of starting in the majors of wear and tear on his arm, not to mention over 500 innings in the minors/as a reliever before that. I would obviously need a lot more info such as physicals and MRIs as well as assumptions the underwriters made when developing the policy. It is totally just a guess, but I assumed they would pick up the first 3 years as if they would a normal contract. But as the contract gets more mature, Hampton gets older, his shoulder and elbow have more wear and tear and his injury risk goes up. I consider that in the 6th year of this contract (2006) I am covering a guy who if healthy has well passed 2000 IP and is 33 years old. Am I going to want to take on the risk of insuring a sizable portion of his contract? Especially because IIRC the time his contract was written was at the early stages of TJS.

[HoopsCubs]

We need to find a long term leadoff man who plays a position other than CF. Furcal is the guy.

 

The last thing we need is RumDum trying to turn Felix Pie into a leadoff hitter.

 

Trade for Luis Castillo and pass on Furcal.

 

Good move. Then, the next move should be a trade for Julio Lugo (made $3.25M in 2005).

 

The Devil Rays have 4 choices:

 

(1) Pick up his $4.95M option.

(2) Decline the option, but seeing that he's still arbitration eligible (but under their control for another season), offer him something between $3.25 and $4.95.

(3) Non-tender him.

(4) Trade him.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing his decent glove and .362 OBP wearing Cubbie blue for a season or two or...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lugo's not exactly a .362 OBP guy. He did it this year, but it's 20 points higher than typical for him, and it came when he hit 20 points better than his career norms, and had a BABIP 20 points higher than expected. He'll probably be more around his .275/.340/.400 levels next year.

 

That said, that doesn't make him a bad target, considering his outstanding defense and favorable contract situation with Cedeno in the wings. If the cost wasn't too bad, I would welcome him as an acquisition.

[cjbucks]

We need to find a long term leadoff man who plays a position other than CF. Furcal is the guy.

 

The last thing we need is RumDum trying to turn Felix Pie into a leadoff hitter.

 

Trade for Luis Castillo and pass on Furcal.

 

Good move. Then, the next move should be a trade for Julio Lugo (made $3.25M in 2005).

 

The Devil Rays have 4 choices:

 

(1) Pick up his $4.95M option.

(2) Decline the option, but seeing that he's still arbitration eligible (but under their control for another season), offer him something between $3.25 and $4.95.

(3) Non-tender him.

(4) Trade him.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing his decent glove and .362 OBP wearing Cubbie blue for a season or two or...

 

I'm with you

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Cubs have anywhere from $42MM to $45MM to spend. We have excess minor league pitching. We can trade one of Rich Hill or Jerome Williams, if not both. Roberto Novoa is trade bait. You pick up Walker's option then trade him. Wave goodbye to Rusch, Nomar, Neifi, Macias and Burnitz, and send them off with a year's supply of Rice-A-Roni, the San Francisco treat. Add all those things together, and you can accomplish a LOT if you're a smart GM. Let's shoot higher than Rafael Furcal, who is OK, but not worth $9MM+ per year. No way. Instead...

 

1. Pay whatever is necessary for Brian Giles, outbid everyone. He is such a crucial need for us.

2. Sign Kevin Millwood. 1 + 2 should be roughly $20MM/year.

3. Sign Bobby Howry or Scott Eyre. Estimated cost $2.5MM/year.

4. Use Walker plus perhaps a mid-level prospect to get a QUALITY 8th inning man. Possible candidates: Rafael Betancourt (Cleveland), Jesse Crain (Minnesota), Octavio Dotel or Justin Duscherer (Oakland).

5. Use Hill or Williams, plus Patterson, to get a CF leadoff man in trade: Bradley or Pierre.

6. Put Murton in LF and Cedeno at SS from day one--combined cost $650K.

7. Put together a trade package of young pitching to Atlanta for Marcus Giles at 2B. Whichever of Hill or Williams is still left, plus Renyel Pinto or Ricky Nolasco?

8. Sign a couple veterans with home run pop for the bench--estimated cost $2-3MM.

9. Pick up Scott Williamson's option.

 

You've got a playoff team right there, with money left over.