Dempster's Sticking Around For 3 More Years

[Bluescale]

i think it's insane to say that dempster didnt have a great season as a closer last year because he walked too many & didnt have enough k's.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that Dempster didn't have a great year as closer. The question, however, is whether or not his performance is repeatable.

[mg420]

i think it's insane to say that dempster didnt have a great season as a closer last year because he walked too many & didnt have enough k's.

 

I don't think anyone is arguing that Dempster didn't have a great year as closer. The question, however, is whether or not his performance is repeatable.

 

that ? is always a risky one. if the cubs didnt jump on getting him signed he most likely would have signed elsewhere leaving them without a closer. he obviously has the talent to do so again but it's a gamble as to weather or not he will. with his stuff & closer mentality, unless he gets injured i'm not worried about him not getting the job done.

[Bluescale]

that ? is always a risky one. if the cubs didnt jump on getting him signed he most likely would have signed elsewhere leaving them without a closer. he obviously has the talent to do so again but it's a gamble as to weather or not he will. with his stuff & closer mentality, unless he gets injured i'm not worried about him not getting the job done.

 

I don't mean to sound glib, but that's exactly how people felt about JoBo. Dempster has more chance of repeating his performance, but JoBo is the perfect example of what looking at only the end result can do.

[goonys evil twin]

that ? is always a risky one. if the cubs didnt jump on getting him signed he most likely would have signed elsewhere leaving them without a closer. he obviously has the talent to do so again but it's a gamble as to weather or not he will. with his stuff & closer mentality, unless he gets injured i'm not worried about him not getting the job done.

 

I don't mean to sound glib, but that's exactly how people felt about JoBo. Dempster has more chance of repeating his performance, but JoBo is the perfect example of what looking at only the end result can do.

 

Actually, JoBo had been a great relief pitcher for two consecutive years.

 

He had a k/9 of 9.13 and 8.69, a k/bb of 3.35 and 3.47, OPS against of 678 and 554, AVG against of .239 and .207, and ERA of 2.73 and 2.63.

 

Ryan was k/9 8.18, k/bb 1.96 and ERA 1.85. I couldn't find his OPS against just as a reliever, but overall it was 663. Opponents hit .218.

 

I think that Joe, coming off two consecutive seasons of great relief performance, had at least as good a chance as Ryan does to "repeat" his performance in 2004. Borowski's numbers were better and he did it longer.

[cubfan75]

Sorry I went away and missed a lot of the discussion on my post. I didn't intend it to mean that his stuff was nasty just that his stat line as a closer was. It seems we are split on the issue, but I definitely fall in the group that thinks Dempster will hold his own next year.

[Magnetic Curses]

I dont know what the fuss is all about. I was angry when we did not sign a closer the past two season, but I'm very happy having Dempster here now. The way I see it is Dempster did an excellent job for us and even if he regresses just a bit, he will still be MUCH MUCH better than Hawkins.

 

I don't know about that. Hawkins had good peripherals, but fell flat in the end. Dempster walks the tight rope in his outings. It would not take much of a downgrade in those peripherals for me to see him falling on his face. I'd still like to see the Cubs sign a dominant reliever like Ryan or Wagner. Let Dempster pitch the bridge role, not entering in the middle of innings, but starting and finishing the 8th every night.

Fell flat? Come on man Hawkins was plain terrible in the closer role. It wasn't even close.

 

I don't deny that, I wasn't trying to sugarcoat.

 

My point though is that Dempster was walking the tightrope. He wasn't a lockdown closer, despite the % (which isn't a great indicator of future success).

 

dempster gets ground balls (a ton of them) and strike outs, two things that hawkins didn't get and hasn't gotten over the course of his career.

 

dempster's nowhere near comparable to hawkins when predicting future success.

[goonys evil twin]

dempster gets ground balls (a ton of them) and strike outs, two things that hawkins didn't get and hasn't gotten over the course of his career.

 

dempster's nowhere near comparable to hawkins when predicting future success.

 

Dempsters career K/9 is 7.40

Hawkins career K/9 is 6.06

 

Dempster's career G/F is 1.26

Hawkins career G/F is 1.16

 

Dempster's career BB/9 is 4.72.

Hawkins' career BB/9 is 2.72.

 

You don't have to make a comparison to Hawkins to describe Dempster as somebody who walks the tight rope. The guy walks too many people, and that didn't change when he went to the bullpen.

 

I was probably the biggest advocate of Dempster becoming the closer last offseason. I started the Dempster/Isringhausen comparison, and I think it still holds up. But there is nothing wrong with being concerned about his ability to close successfully 4 straight years. I think the Cubs still need to look into acquiring a more dominant bullpen arm, whether that guy is a closer like Wagner or Ryan, or a middle innings guy.

[CuseCubFan69]

dempster gets ground balls (a ton of them) and strike outs, two things that hawkins didn't get and hasn't gotten over the course of his career.

 

dempster's nowhere near comparable to hawkins when predicting future success.

 

Dempsters career K/9 is 7.40

Hawkins career K/9 is 6.06

 

Dempster's career G/F is 1.26

Hawkins career G/F is 1.16

 

Dempster's career BB/9 is 4.72.

Hawkins' career BB/9 is 2.72.

 

You don't have to make a comparison to Hawkins to describe Dempster as somebody who walks the tight rope. The guy walks too many people, and that didn't change when he went to the bullpen.

 

I was probably the biggest advocate of Dempster becoming the closer last offseason. I started the Dempster/Isringhausen comparison, and I think it still holds up. But there is nothing wrong with being concerned about his ability to close successfully 4 straight years. I think the Cubs still need to look into acquiring a more dominant bullpen arm, whether that guy is a closer like Wagner or Ryan, or a middle innings guy.

 

Let's see what Dempster has to offer now that he knows he is going to be a closer. He was getting ready to be a starter throughout the spring and the first third of the season so maybe this will help him in his development in throwing strikes. It may not but maybe it will help.

[Magnetic Curses]

dempster gets ground balls (a ton of them) and strike outs, two things that hawkins didn't get and hasn't gotten over the course of his career.

 

dempster's nowhere near comparable to hawkins when predicting future success.

 

Dempsters career K/9 is 7.40

Hawkins career K/9 is 6.06

 

Dempster's career G/F is 1.26

Hawkins career G/F is 1.16

 

Dempster's career BB/9 is 4.72.

Hawkins' career BB/9 is 2.72.

 

You don't have to make a comparison to Hawkins to describe Dempster as somebody who walks the tight rope. The guy walks too many people, and that didn't change when he went to the bullpen.

 

hawkins has primarily been used in the bullpen over the course of his career whereas dempster has been used as a starter, so your comparison should be weighted somehow.

 

last season, when used primarily out of the bullpen, dempster got around 2.5 times more groundballs than hawkins, and struck out around 2 more hitters per 9 innings. dempster's numbers make me more than comfortable with him as the closer.

[mg420]

dempster gets ground balls (a ton of them) and strike outs, two things that hawkins didn't get and hasn't gotten over the course of his career.

 

dempster's nowhere near comparable to hawkins when predicting future success.

 

Dempsters career K/9 is 7.40

Hawkins career K/9 is 6.06

 

Dempster's career G/F is 1.26

Hawkins career G/F is 1.16

 

Dempster's career BB/9 is 4.72.

Hawkins' career BB/9 is 2.72.

 

You don't have to make a comparison to Hawkins to describe Dempster as somebody who walks the tight rope. The guy walks too many people, and that didn't change when he went to the bullpen.

 

I was probably the biggest advocate of Dempster becoming the closer last offseason. I started the Dempster/Isringhausen comparison, and I think it still holds up. But there is nothing wrong with being concerned about his ability to close successfully 4 straight years. I think the Cubs still need to look into acquiring a more dominant bullpen arm, whether that guy is a closer like Wagner or Ryan, or a middle innings guy.

 

i dont see hendry giving dempster 15 mil for 3 years & not have him close. unless he is injured or does a horrible job, he is the closer in 06 and beyond. they will most likely try to snag a set up guy like howry & another lefty arm but i think they are high on ohman, wuretz & novoa for the other spots. personally i hope to see jvb get a real shot next year too.

[goonys evil twin]

dempster gets ground balls (a ton of them) and strike outs, two things that hawkins didn't get and hasn't gotten over the course of his career.

 

dempster's nowhere near comparable to hawkins when predicting future success.

 

Dempsters career K/9 is 7.40

Hawkins career K/9 is 6.06

 

Dempster's career G/F is 1.26

Hawkins career G/F is 1.16

 

Dempster's career BB/9 is 4.72.

Hawkins' career BB/9 is 2.72.

 

You don't have to make a comparison to Hawkins to describe Dempster as somebody who walks the tight rope. The guy walks too many people, and that didn't change when he went to the bullpen.

 

hawkins has primarily been used in the bullpen over the course of his career whereas dempster has been used as a starter, so your comparison should be weighted somehow.

 

last season, when used primarily out of the bullpen, dempster got around 2.5 times more groundballs than hawkins, and struck out around 2 more hitters per 9 innings. dempster's numbers make me more than comfortable with him as the closer.

 

I don't think you want to do that. Hawkins numbers were much better as a reliever than as a starter. I kept in his starting numbers, which were more than half his career stats, when comparing the two. Take out his starting time and Hawkin's K/9 goes up to about 7.5+ and his K/BB is about 4.5. I didn't want to unfairly disparage Dempster anymore than need be. Besides, it all counts.

[goonys evil twin]

i dont see hendry giving dempster 15 mil for 3 years & not have him close. unless he is injured or does a horrible job, he is the closer in 06 and beyond. they will most likely try to snag a set up guy like howry & another lefty arm but i think they are high on ohman, wuretz & novoa for the other spots. personally i hope to see jvb get a real shot next year too.

 

Unfortunately I think you're right. But Hendry could easily afford a 3/30 deal with one of the studs, and still have plenty of money to spend on improving the woeful OF offense.

[XZero771679666304]

dempster gets ground balls (a ton of them) and strike outs, two things that hawkins didn't get and hasn't gotten over the course of his career.

 

dempster's nowhere near comparable to hawkins when predicting future success.

 

Dempsters career K/9 is 7.40

Hawkins career K/9 is 6.06

 

Dempster's career G/F is 1.26

Hawkins career G/F is 1.16

 

Dempster's career BB/9 is 4.72.

Hawkins' career BB/9 is 2.72.

 

You don't have to make a comparison to Hawkins to describe Dempster as somebody who walks the tight rope. The guy walks too many people, and that didn't change when he went to the bullpen.

 

hawkins has primarily been used in the bullpen over the course of his career whereas dempster has been used as a starter, so your comparison should be weighted somehow.

 

last season, when used primarily out of the bullpen, dempster got around 2.5 times more groundballs than hawkins, and struck out around 2 more hitters per 9 innings. dempster's numbers make me more than comfortable with him as the closer.

 

I don't think you want to do that. Hawkins numbers were much better as a reliever than as a starter. I kept in his starting numbers, which were more than half his career stats, when comparing the two. Take out his starting time and Hawkin's K/9 goes up to about 7.5+ and his K/BB is about 4.5. I didn't want to unfairly disparage Dempster anymore than need be. Besides, it all counts.

 

Their career numbers are quite similar.

 

And Dempster's numbers were better as a reliever as well. His OPS and BAA went way down, and his k/9 and k/bb went up. Take out both pitcher's career starting numbers and you can see that Dempster has been better than Hawkins as a reliever, and much better as a closer.

 

For all his control problems, Dempster has a slightly lower career whip than Hawkins, even though Hawkins has had a much longer stint as a reliever. As relievers, they are almost dead even. When it is all said and done, it is the total number of baserunners you allow, not how you allow them. And Dempster has an advantage in that he can pitch to contact because his stuff doesn't get hit as hard as Hawkins.

 

And there is the fact that in multiple opportunities, Hawkins has failed to produce nearly the results that Dempster did in his first try. LaTroy has has more than enough opportunities for the law of averages to work out, yet his career save percentage is abysmal. Hawkins can't close, and he has repeatedly proven that. Dempster, hin his first chance, was top notch as a closer.

 

Could he revert? Sure he could. But so could Eric Gagne, who was every bit as bad as Dempster was as a starter. Some pitchers abilities just translate well into closing, and IMO Dempster falls into that category. His peripherals were above career norm last year coming off injury, and they got better this year. And whether you choose to admit it or not, there is clearly something intangible about a successful closer. But Ryan has the numbers to go with it as a closer, and has earned his chance, IMO.

 

If he can't do it, you can get someone else, and at 5 mil, he would make a good setup man. But I tend to believe he will.

[XZero771679666304]

i dont see hendry giving dempster 15 mil for 3 years & not have him close. unless he is injured or does a horrible job, he is the closer in 06 and beyond. they will most likely try to snag a set up guy like howry & another lefty arm but i think they are high on ohman, wuretz & novoa for the other spots. personally i hope to see jvb get a real shot next year too.

 

Unfortunately I think you're right. But Hendry could easily afford a 3/30 deal with one of the studs, and still have plenty of money to spend on improving the woeful OF offense.

 

True. It's only 3 mil more than Dempster earned this year, and there is still plenty of money left to spend.

[goonys evil twin]

If he can't do it, you can get someone else, and at 5 mil, he would make a good setup man. But I tend to believe he will.

 

I'm not sure how this turned into a debate between Dempster and Hawkins.

 

I don't get the "you can get someone else" theory. The Cubs have pretty much proven they aren't good at just getting somebody else. They spent a year and a half trying to get somebody else, and that was just a year removed from spending a decade trying to find somebody else. $2m on Jobo was a managable risk. At $5m, they don't have the luxury of living through failure. This isn't a "if he fails, no big deal" sort of thing. They are tied into Dempster now, and he must deliver. He had good numbers as a reliever this year. But those numbers are not guaranteed in the future, given his history.

[XZero771679666304]

If he can't do it, you can get someone else, and at 5 mil, he would make a good setup man. But I tend to believe he will.

 

I'm not sure how this turned into a debate between Dempster and Hawkins.

 

I don't get the "you can get someone else" theory. The Cubs have pretty much proven they aren't good at just getting somebody else. They spent a year and a half trying to get somebody else, and that was just a year removed from spending a decade trying to find somebody else. $2m on Jobo was a managable risk. At $5m, they don't have the luxury of living through failure. This isn't a "if he fails, no big deal" sort of thing. They are tied into Dempster now, and he must deliver. He had good numbers as a reliever this year. But those numbers are not guaranteed in the future, given his history.

 

To be honest, I just don't see Dempster as having "walked the tightrope". At least not any more than Borowski or Hawkins did. He gives up his walks, but he gives up few hits and very few XBH, and his peripherals as a closer are good.

 

And I really would rather have Dempster at 5 million than Wagner at 10. Obviously Ryan isn't as good as Billy, but I don't think that difference is woth 5 million. Unless your have Rivera, Wagner or Gagne (Maybe not even Gagne, with his injuries), you have a gamble.

 

Like I said earlier, if Dempster had a 1.40 ERA and .280 BAA, I would be a bit leery. But his number as a closer range from good - excellent, and I feel as comfortable with him as closer as I have with anyone the Cubs have run out there in the past 10 years, for what that's worth.

 

I just think giving an effective in house option a contract for less than he would have gotten on the open market and using the rest of your offseason resources to plug other holes makes a lot more sense than paying another guy twice as much to do a job that probably would have been done anyway.

 

Having an effective closer locked up before the offseason even begins is a luxury, and Hendry has bigger fish to fry than the possibility of Dempster regressing, IMO.

[Lefty]

you still havent given any cheaper & better options that the cubs had prior to signing dempster. who would you have rather seen them sign than dempster?

 

Tht's kinda' the point. You oughta be able to get someone for $2 million. That's what Dempster made last year. That's about what Hermanson made last year. There is no reason to pay premium money for a commodity. But the Cubs don't really understand this.

 

The assumption is that Dempster will not convert 94% of his save opportunities again. And the truth is, he shouldn't get any credit for "saving" three run leads in the ninth. I'm pretty sure Hawkins never blew any of those. Anyway, Dempster will probably convert 65%-70% of his one-run leads next year. You can get that for a lot less and sign a non-commodity player.

 

Okay, tell us the guy you want for 2M then, and come back next season if that guy turns into nothing. There's something to be said for a degree of certainty.

 

And eliminating Dempster's 3 run saves makes things look a lot worse than they are. Even the best closers don't nail down all the 1 run leads.

 

Dempster was 14-16 in 1-run games this year. With 1 of the blown saves being a 2 inning appearance and one of the saves being a 2.2 inning appearance. Along with that he had 0 mult-run blown saves.

 

Hoffman went 17-19 in 1 run games with 1 multi-run blown.

 

Rivera 13-16, 1 multi run.

 

Wagner 12-15, 0 multi run.

 

Dempster was great last year for $2 million. But now you've increased his salary and I don't think he will be great again. Hendry disagrees, so let's see.

[SeldomSeen]

The last couple of years, we've gone into the season with at least 3 fairly large question marks: Who's going to get on base regularly, Who's going to lead off, and Who's gonna close out games. I, for one, am glad that Hendry can focus on just 2 areas of inadequacy at this point. It's like we're ahead of the game for once. It only took 2/3 years to get here. Maybe by 2010 this thing will be figured out. 8)