Who Do You Build Around?

[craig]

There is no good reason to give up on Walker unless the Cubs can upgrade his position.

 

Aquiring someone to play SS who has an expensive, long-term contract when Cedeno is cheap and already under the team's control would only serve to unnecessarily financially handcuff the Cubs in the future. About the only reason to sign Furcal is if the Cubs can't sign Giles or Damon or trade for an impact OFer.

 

Choosing not to sign Giles or Damon seems quite likely. As does the likelihood of being unable to acquire an impact OFer at a cost Hendry is willing to pay. So, if those are the conditions for considering Furcal, then I think Furcal should remain under active consideration at least until we know Hendry is willing to pay the price required to get a knockout outfielder.

 

It also seems plausible to both sign Furcal and get an outfielder.

 

I think Furcal is a very good SS, both ways. The odds that Cedeno will be as good immediately, or ever, are not great. Furcal walks more than Cedeno ever has, he hits more HR's than Cedeno ever has, and he steals more bases than Cedeno ever has. He's a very good player. Further, he's equipped to be a leadoff man, now. With Cedeno's typically low IsoD's, and his inexperience, he's not a realistic candidate to lead off in 2006, and perhaps not ever. The number of big-spending teams likely to want a SS projects to perhaps be minimal. The Cubs might be able to get Furcal at relatively fair-value price, without a gross overpay. If Hendry can get an asset-SS who's plus defensively and offensively and who solves the leadoff problem at fair value, he should consider doing that. It's hard enough to ever get a quality FA at fair-value price; if that becomes possible, I don't think Hendry should pass on that simply because Furcal is a SS.

 

I also don't think Cedeno would be wasted at 2nd. His defense is way better than Walker's. Whether you view Walker's as acceptable or as weak, Cedeno's would be a huge step up. And while the cost margin relative to Walker or the Grudz/Hairston's that populate 2B isn't as large as the savings relative to Furcal, it would still be substantial. If Cedeno's two-way combination is good value (especially at price) at SS, I don't see why it wouldn't also be decent value at price for 2B.

 

And I think having middle-infield settled with two guys who can both field and run, and are young enough so that that should remain true for 4 years or more, would greatly stabilize the roster, the baserunning, the defense, the fundamentals, etc..

 

I'm not saying Furcal is the answer, or should be signed. But as I look ahead, I think it's possible that Furcal will be available at a much more reasonable price (given teams buying) than Giles or Damon, guys who may be targetted by multiple big-spending teams. If the market goes supply-demand overboard on Giles, who'll be 35, but is pretty fair on Furcal, it might make a lot better sense to sign the much younger guy at a more value-fair price, and put leadoff to bed for a bunch of years.

 

Then we won't fuss with trying to force Pie into leadoff where his K-loving anti-walk profile will perhaps misfit. It will be easier to ease Pie into the lineup, batting low. Or Cedeno, batting 2nd or 7th or 8th. Or Murton, batting 2nd or 6th or whatever.

 

Obvoiusly signing Furcal and starting Cedeno at 2nd could involve trying to get a fair-value trade for Walker. Should we do all that? Who knows. But I'd at least consider it.

[USSoccer]

I think, barring a trade for a LF, Baker should pencil in Murton in the #2 spot next year. He can hit to the opposite field, is fairly sound fundementally, is fast, has a bit of power, and gets on base.

 

With any sort of OBP from the top of the order, Lee and ARam would be that much more effective.

 

#1-

#2-Murton

#3-Lee

#4-Ramirez

#5-

#6-Barrett

#7-Cedeno

#8-

 

So basically, if I'm the GM I have openings at CF, RF and SS. I trade Walker to fill a bullpen slot, and upgrade my defense up the middle.

 

Bench:

 

Hairston

Blanco

open

open

open

open

 

Bullpen

 

C-Dempster

SU-Novoa

SU-open

Middle-open

LOOGY-Ohman

Long-Wuertz

 

 

Rotation:

 

Zambrano

Prior

Wood

Williams

Maddux

 

 

In my world, I trade Walker for JC Romero. That fills one BP slot. I explore a trade for Kenny Lofton, rationalizing that Pie is a year away and Lofton is still productive at 39. I offer Nomar about $2.5m with incentives to play SS. If he takes it, great. If not, I chase Furcal. I chase Giles and see if he'll take Alou's old deal.

 

I think that's a decent starting point, but we'll see how Hendry plays it. If he waits for deals to come to him like he did last offseason, we're in deep trouble. Hendry needs to aggressively correct the team this offseason, and needs to be bold, and daring.

[Bull]

I offer Nomar about $2.5m with incentives to play SS. If he takes it, great.

 

I think Nomar owes it to the Cubs to take that deal. Think he'll see it that way?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I offer Nomar about $2.5m with incentives to play SS. If he takes it, great.

 

I think Nomar owes it to the Cubs to take that deal. Think he'll see it that way?

 

I don't think there's any way Nomar accepts a deal with only 2.5 guaranteed. I'm thinking five million will be the minimum base with incentives.

[sweetpeteman]

USSoccer: Lofton is a free agent. no need for a trade.

[USSoccer]

I offer Nomar about $2.5m with incentives to play SS. If he takes it, great.

 

I think Nomar owes it to the Cubs to take that deal. Think he'll see it that way?

 

I don't think there's any way Nomar accepts a deal with only 2.5 guaranteed. I'm thinking five million will be the minimum base with incentives.

 

Then we can waive goodbye, and not look back. I wouldn't pay him nearly that much.

[USSoccer]

USSoccer: Lofton is a free agent. no need for a trade.

 

Are you sure about that? I was almost positive that he signed a 2 year deal, or at least had a player option.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

USSoccer: Lofton is a free agent. no need for a trade.

 

Are you sure about that? I was almost positive that he signed a 2 year deal, or at least had a player option.

 

He did sign a 2-yr deal with the Yankees for 2004-5 and then was traded to the Phillies.

[USSoccer]

USSoccer: Lofton is a free agent. no need for a trade.

 

Are you sure about that? I was almost positive that he signed a 2 year deal, or at least had a player option.

 

He did sign a 2-yr deal with the Yankees for 2004-5 and then was traded to the Phillies.

 

Ahhhhhh...then that's good. We can just pay him, and not worry about giving up players.

[CubsWin]

There is no good reason to give up on Walker unless the Cubs can upgrade his position.

 

Aquiring someone to play SS who has an expensive, long-term contract when Cedeno is cheap and already under the team's control would only serve to unnecessarily financially handcuff the Cubs in the future. About the only reason to sign Furcal is if the Cubs can't sign Giles or Damon or trade for an impact OFer.

 

Choosing not to sign Giles or Damon seems quite likely. As does the likelihood of being unable to acquire an impact OFer at a cost Hendry is willing to pay. So, if those are the conditions for considering Furcal, then I think Furcal should remain under active consideration at least until we know Hendry is willing to pay the price required to get a knockout outfielder.

 

It also seems plausible to both sign Furcal and get an outfielder.

 

I think Furcal is a very good SS, both ways. The odds that Cedeno will be as good immediately, or ever, are not great. Furcal walks more than Cedeno ever has, he hits more HR's than Cedeno ever has, and he steals more bases than Cedeno ever has. He's a very good player. Further, he's equipped to be a leadoff man, now. With Cedeno's typically low IsoD's, and his inexperience, he's not a realistic candidate to lead off in 2006, and perhaps not ever. The number of big-spending teams likely to want a SS projects to perhaps be minimal. The Cubs might be able to get Furcal at relatively fair-value price, without a gross overpay. If Hendry can get an asset-SS who's plus defensively and offensively and who solves the leadoff problem at fair value, he should consider doing that. It's hard enough to ever get a quality FA at fair-value price; if that becomes possible, I don't think Hendry should pass on that simply because Furcal is a SS.

 

I also don't think Cedeno would be wasted at 2nd. His defense is way better than Walker's. Whether you view Walker's as acceptable or as weak, Cedeno's would be a huge step up. And while the cost margin relative to Walker or the Grudz/Hairston's that populate 2B isn't as large as the savings relative to Furcal, it would still be substantial. If Cedeno's two-way combination is good value (especially at price) at SS, I don't see why it wouldn't also be decent value at price for 2B.

 

And I think having middle-infield settled with two guys who can both field and run, and are young enough so that that should remain true for 4 years or more, would greatly stabilize the roster, the baserunning, the defense, the fundamentals, etc..

 

I'm not saying Furcal is the answer, or should be signed. But as I look ahead, I think it's possible that Furcal will be available at a much more reasonable price (given teams buying) than Giles or Damon, guys who may be targetted by multiple big-spending teams. If the market goes supply-demand overboard on Giles, who'll be 35, but is pretty fair on Furcal, it might make a lot better sense to sign the much younger guy at a more value-fair price, and put leadoff to bed for a bunch of years.

 

Then we won't fuss with trying to force Pie into leadoff where his K-loving anti-walk profile will perhaps misfit. It will be easier to ease Pie into the lineup, batting low. Or Cedeno, batting 2nd or 7th or 8th. Or Murton, batting 2nd or 6th or whatever.

 

Obvoiusly signing Furcal and starting Cedeno at 2nd could involve trying to get a fair-value trade for Walker. Should we do all that? Who knows. But I'd at least consider it.

What makes you think that Hendry won't be willing to pay the price necessary to land someone like Giles? He has a lot more money to spend this offseason than ever before in his tenure. And this is his last year in his contract. I'd say motivation meets opportunity here and that tells me that he could indeed spend some big bucks.