Lee Situation

[Derwood]

Ummm... Why the hell would Cincy and Milwaukee each trade one of their best players to a Division rival? Especially when only one of them actually gets Derek Lee in return?

 

The same reason people think Furcal, Burnett and Giles will all sign with the Cubs with no other teams showing interest.

[Chocolate Milk]

Other than the unlikely senario that a Herschel Walker type deal comes along, we should do our best to re-sign Lee.

[katway]

No way, you don't trade away your best players, we have a 100 million dollar payroll, we can keep our All-Stars.

 

I want Lee signed to an extension this off-season...

 

What if trading Lee got you another All-Star, possibly one younger and more likely to stay at their current numbers than Lee? There's a lot of good hitting 1B, I'd explore the possiblity.

 

The only way I would consider trading Lee is if maybe it is to Texas for Mench and Gonzalez who is gonna be a stud hitting 1B if you can give up Lee and a midlevel prospect for Mench, Gonzalez and another prospect maybe. Then they could have Texiera be the DH. But i dont see Texas doing this deal becasue they need pitching.

 

Lee to LA

Cubs prospect(s) to Milwaukee

LA prospects to Cincy

Dunn to Chicago

Overbay to Chicago

 

Just throwing it out there.

 

Am I missing something, but is this just essentially 2 trades? 1 - Lee for Dunn, then 2- prospects for Overbay? I'd never do a Lee for Dunn trade strait up like that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

No way, you don't trade away your best players, we have a 100 million dollar payroll, we can keep our All-Stars.

 

I want Lee signed to an extension this off-season...

 

What if trading Lee got you another All-Star, possibly one younger and more likely to stay at their current numbers than Lee? There's a lot of good hitting 1B, I'd explore the possiblity.

 

The only way I would consider trading Lee is if maybe it is to Texas for Mench and Gonzalez who is gonna be a stud hitting 1B if you can give up Lee and a midlevel prospect for Mench, Gonzalez and another prospect maybe. Then they could have Texiera be the DH. But i dont see Texas doing this deal becasue they need pitching.

 

Lee to LA

Cubs prospect(s) to Milwaukee

LA prospects to Cincy

Dunn to Chicago

Overbay to Chicago

 

Just throwing it out there.

 

Am I missing something, but is this just essentially 2 trades? 1 - Lee for Dunn, then 2- prospects for Overbay? I'd never do a Lee for Dunn trade strait up like that.

 

It was just thrown together to show the possibility of what we could get for Lee, I didn't take more than a minute or two to look at whether or not it could be separated.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ummm... Why the hell would Cincy and Milwaukee each trade one of their best players to a Division rival? Especially when only one of them actually gets Derek Lee in return?

 

Overbay will be replaced by Fielder, the specific players weren't mentioned, but it would be silly to think they wouldn't be open to trading him. Dunn is a trickier fix, and again, I was just throwing out the type of talent that we might be able to get for Lee. But since you asked, Dunn is going to be making a good deal of money, and with Kearns and Pena able to play the corner spots much cheaper, the Reds might look into trading Dunn. Getting a couple top prospects from the LA organization to give them some pitching would not be a terrible deal from them all things considered.

[TheDude]

Why would a team looking to add one more stud bat trade away the best bat in the lineup? Trading Lee makes zero sense unless the team is rebuilding and wants the top prospect from the target trade partner. The team isn't rebuilding - it's reloading.

 

Assume whoever the Cubs pickup hits behind Lee at 4th (or maybe behind Ramirez at 5th) and produces 30/100. With 4th and 5th hole hitters behind Lee like those, why would his production slow down significantly? Maybe he regresses to .290/35/100 with a .370 OBP. That is still fantastic, when you toss in a stellar defense and 15 SB.

 

Lee and Ramirez make a formidable 3-4 combo. Add Giles-like production behind them, and the team is loaded with a 100HR/300RBI middle-of-the-lineup hitting around .300 with .370+ OBP.

 

[edit - smelling pistakes]

[CuseCubFan69]

If I remember correctly Lee was originally going to Baltimore in a trade that broke down at the last minute for some reason and Hendry swooped in and took advantage. Could they be interested in him again?

[Guest]

sosa's 2001 season is probably one of the 10-15 greatest single seasons during the steroid era.

 

Looking at relative numbers and eras, it's a long way from when Babe Ruth hit more homers than all the other AL teams combined.

Sosa's 2001 season easily rates as one of the best seasons of the past 10 years, trailing only Bonds' 2001 and 2002 campaigns. It rates extremely highly on the all-time list as well; 12th overall, behind those two seasons from Barry, a couple by Lou Gherig, one by Rajah, and several by Ruth. (That's after adjustments are made for park factors and the league average. Keep in mind that offense was just as dominant in Ruth's heyday as it was during Sosa's.)

[johnnyba99]

If I remember correctly Lee was originally going to Baltimore in a trade that broke down at the last minute for some reason and Hendry swooped in and took advantage. Could they be interested in him again?

 

Do the Orioles have anyone that could upgrade the Cubs? Other than Tejada obviously, I doubt they're trading him and I can't think of anybody else on their team I would want.

[nilodnayr]

Ummm... Why the hell would Cincy and Milwaukee each trade one of their best players to a Division rival? Especially when only one of them actually gets Derek Lee in return?

 

The same reason people think Furcal, Burnett and Giles will all sign with the Cubs with no other teams showing interest.

 

FYI the dodgers have a AA that could beat the Reds. A few players from that team would be a smart thing to acquire for a small market team who has 4 OF, especially when the one they are getting rid of will be over 10% of their salary. As CPat mentioned Prince Fielder is 2006 starting 1B for the Brewers. The brewers have publicly stated that they would find a way to get Overbay in the lineup. However, Overbay has never played an ML inning at another position and is light hitting for a 1B, let alone a corner outfielder. Especially when your corner OF is manned by your two best hitters by far. Hes not going to replace Brady Clark either, so unless he learns how to throw righty, hes going to the bench or to be traded. My money is on him being traded. We know the Brewers wouldn't have an issue trading with the cubs as all reports said the cubs were deep in discussions for Kolb. Theres nothing a small market team needs more than young cheap pitching prospects and thats what the cubs have.

[nilodnayr]

If I remember correctly Lee was originally going to Baltimore in a trade that broke down at the last minute for some reason and Hendry swooped in and took advantage. Could they be interested in him again?

 

Do the Orioles have anyone that could upgrade the Cubs? Other than Tejada obviously, I doubt they're trading him and I can't think of anybody else on their team I would want.

 

Erik Bedard, but Id want a lot more than that.

[USSoccer]

If I remember correctly Lee was originally going to Baltimore in a trade that broke down at the last minute for some reason and Hendry swooped in and took advantage. Could they be interested in him again?

 

Do the Orioles have anyone that could upgrade the Cubs? Other than Tejada obviously, I doubt they're trading him and I can't think of anybody else on their team I would want.

 

Erik Bedard, but Id want a lot more than that.

 

Markakis (sp)?

[nilodnayr]

If I remember correctly Lee was originally going to Baltimore in a trade that broke down at the last minute for some reason and Hendry swooped in and took advantage. Could they be interested in him again?

 

Do the Orioles have anyone that could upgrade the Cubs? Other than Tejada obviously, I doubt they're trading him and I can't think of anybody else on their team I would want.

 

Erik Bedard, but Id want a lot more than that.

 

Markakis (sp)?

 

Yeah I'd like that, that'd be a whole lot more :D

[nilodnayr]

 

Lee to LA

Cubs prospect(s) to Milwaukee

LA prospects to Cincy

Dunn to Chicago

Overbay to Chicago

 

Just throwing it out there.

 

That works out as a straight up Lee for Dunn trade. While not a bad trade, I think we could do better. Id look to have LA also throw prospects to Washington to get Guillen.

 

Hairston

Overbay

ARAM

Dunn

Guillen/Nomar

Nomar/Guillen

Walker

Barrett

 

That lineup would undoubtedly lead the NL in OBP and be extremely extremely cheap.

 

Thinking about how cheap that lineup would be, it might be possible to acquire Manny instead of Guillen. As mentioned in another thread, if the Bosox plan on getting rid of Manny they have to do it this offseason as he will have a no trade clause next year, I believe. This lineup would be amazing and only slightly more expensive than the 2005.

 

Hairston

Overbay

Manny

Dunn

ARAM

Nomar

Walker

Barrett

[ConstableRabbit]

How many more errors is our infield going to have w/o DLee? I'd pencil in just Aramis for 10+ more easy.

 

It depends on who you get to replace Lee. In my hypothetical where we get Overbay as well, you don't lose much defense at 1B.

 

CPatterson (or anyone else), do you know anything about Overbay's reach? I'm a pretty big fan of his, but I don't know much about his defense. Would you consider him to be a gold glove candidate?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How many more errors is our infield going to have w/o DLee? I'd pencil in just Aramis for 10+ more easy.

 

It depends on who you get to replace Lee. In my hypothetical where we get Overbay as well, you don't lose much defense at 1B.

 

CPatterson (or anyone else), do you know anything about Overbay's reach? I'm a pretty big fan of his, but I don't know much about his defense. Would you consider him to be a gold glove candidate?

 

Admittedly, I haven't seen him play very much, but he scores very highly with statistics like Rate, RAA, and RAR throughout his career. His ZR isn't very high compared to other 1B, but that's probably less reliable than the previous 3 in determining performance.

[ConstableRabbit]

How many more errors is our infield going to have w/o DLee? I'd pencil in just Aramis for 10+ more easy.

 

It depends on who you get to replace Lee. In my hypothetical where we get Overbay as well, you don't lose much defense at 1B.

 

CPatterson (or anyone else), do you know anything about Overbay's reach? I'm a pretty big fan of his, but I don't know much about his defense. Would you consider him to be a gold glove candidate?

 

Admittedly, I haven't seen him play very much, but he scores very highly with statistics like Rate, RAA, and RAR throughout his career. His ZR isn't very high compared to other 1B, but that's probably less reliable than the previous 3 in determining performance.

 

Thanks, and yes, I'd say Zone Rating is an overrated stat.

[Jazz]

Overbay would be a suitable replacement for Lee, if you sign a marquee player along with the players you get back in a Lee deal. Trade Lee involving alot of players

 

Cubs get: Adam Dunn, Joel Guzman (Top SS Prospect, but will probably change to OF), Milton Bradley, and William Bergola (Reds MIF prospect)

Cubs Give Up: Lee, Mitre/Williams, and PTBNL

 

Reds get: Edwin Jackson, Johathon Broxton, Ryan Harvey, and PTBNL (cubs)

Reds Give Up: Dunn and Bergola

 

Dodgers get: Derek Lee, and Mitre/Williams

Dodgers Give Up Guzman, Broxton, Jackson, and Bradley

 

Cubs Perspective: Cubs get a young slugging OF (Dunn) that would be their starter for the next 5-6 years, a blue chip SS prospect (Guzman), who would probably better suited OF because of his below average range, while still possessing a powerful arm though, as well as a Level B prospect in Bergola who is good defensively, and a smart hitter who knows hot to get on Base. Quote from BA:

 

Bergolla has good bat control, using the whole field with a compact, line-drive swing. He’s also a good bunter and is learning the value of a walk. He’s an above-average runner who led the organization in steals for the second straight year, and he has improved his baserunning savvy. He has the range and infield actions to play shortstop, as well as solid average arm strength.

 

They also get a good stopgap CF (bradley) that could hold the position down with above average production until Pie gets here, that also seems like a Dusty type player, that might benefit with a change of scenery, and excell like barrett, and other have under baker.

 

Reds Perspective: Reds solve their crowded outfield dilemna (although trading their best OF), but get back a solid trio of prospects. Jackson and Broxton provide depth at SP that they desperately need, and jackson could be ready to contribute next year. Harvey also makes the loss of dunn a little less harsh, providing power that is lacking in the reds farm system.

 

Dodgers Perspective: Dodger have been looking for a staple at first base for a while though, and while it might seem ironic to have Lee and Choi in the same dugout, consider that choi has mediocre this year, and doesnt show much of an upside besides his power. Lee is the power bat in the middle of the lineup that Depodesta might be searching for this offseason, as well as an anchor to the defense.

 

Deals like this is are what Hendry should be looking for if hes going to try to get as much as he can while Lee's value is as high as it is.

 

Then target someone like Overbay, Konerko (if not resigned) and plug him into the lineup. Then go after Manny if Hendry isnt worn out by the above deal. Sign Pitching in Free Agency, and you have yourself a nice offseason.

 

Picture this lineup

 

2B Cedeno/Perez

SS Garciaparra

LF Dunn

RF M. Ramirez

3B A. Ramirez

1B Overbay

CF Bradley

C Barrett

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd remove Guzman and Bergola from that deal, then you might have something.

[Jazz]

I'd remove Guzman and Bergola from that deal, then you might have something.

 

how likely though is a scenario where hendry would trade Lee right after the season he had. Im behind it if it nets us a huge return, but the PR departmant would have a field day answering hate mail, and angry phone calls.

 

also, wat are the chance hendry goes out and gets Manny and a suitable replacement at 1B after that type of deal goes through, and then go after a millwood or burnett?

[nilodnayr]

How many more errors is our infield going to have w/o DLee? I'd pencil in just Aramis for 10+ more easy.

 

It depends on who you get to replace Lee. In my hypothetical where we get Overbay as well, you don't lose much defense at 1B.

 

CPatterson (or anyone else), do you know anything about Overbay's reach? I'm a pretty big fan of his, but I don't know much about his defense. Would you consider him to be a gold glove candidate?

 

Admittedly, I haven't seen him play very much, but he scores very highly with statistics like Rate, RAA, and RAR throughout his career. His ZR isn't very high compared to other 1B, but that's probably less reliable than the previous 3 in determining performance.

 

I wouldnt consider Overbay Gold Glove, but of course only one player in the league can win the Gold Glove (and in the scenario above Lee is still in the league as well as Helton and Pujols). But I would consider Overbays defense very very above average.

[nilodnayr]

I'd remove Guzman and Bergola from that deal, then you might have something.

 

how likely though is a scenario where hendry would trade Lee right after the season he had. Im behind it if it nets us a huge return, but the PR departmant would have a field day answering hate mail, and angry phone calls.

 

also, wat are the chance hendry goes out and gets Manny and a suitable replacement at 1B after that type of deal goes through, and then go after a millwood or burnett?

 

The dodgers are giving up an awful lot in that situation, but in principle it sounds good. The Reds are getting a ton, they can give up Bergola, but I'd get some one to move to the Brewers for Overbay, whoever that is. Maybe downgrade on Guzman and include that prospect to the Brewers.

[katway]

I'd remove Guzman and Bergola from that deal, then you might have something.

 

Without Guzman and Bergola equivalents there is no way Cubs do such a trade for Dunn and Bradley. Dunn is not in Lee's class and Bradley is more trouble than he is worth. Cubs would have to get a definite trade winner deal to trade Lee where everyone looking at it says why did they give up so much to get Lee. Equal value will not suffice, Cubs will need more and I don't blame them.

[Jazz]

Exactly, LA has to overpay for lee, and they are the right to team to reach out for prospects from. Guzman is a must in this deal, because theyre hardly giving enough if they dont. And Bergola is one of those handpicked finds i had, hes not just a throw in, i expect good production out of him at the major league level, a patient hitting SS with above average defense is a great find, especially one good base stealing numbers.

[MPrior]

Trading Lee is a bad idea.

 

There are lots of reasons, but here are the two biggest, in my mind; first, if he does produce anything even close to what he did for us this year, we are paying WAY less than anyone else is paying for even roughly comparable production. If we trade him away, someone else might get that underpriced production. Secondly, the sheer number of people a move like that would piss off alone makes it a bad idea; unless the move turns out to be absolute genius (and I don't mean "if it improves the team." I mean it has to look like a WS-winning stroke of genius), support for the team and the front office will go down, and as a result the Trib might be less willing to front as much money as before - I mean, Lee's season has been the biggest of the precious few reasons to even watch the Cubs this year - imagine if we have a similar, or even slightly better, season next year, but without Lee. What do we get? Even less excitement.

 

So: unless we could get something so eye-poppingly astronomical for Lee (I'm talking Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and prospects), which we won't, there's no way we should do it.