My Off-season moves

[AramisRamirez]

Well, i would keep many of the same players but plug in a few big additions. I would start at SS with rafael furcal to a large deal. he's a solid guy to have, a big reason for atlanta's sucess. he's a base-stealing threat and a good top of the order guy.

 

as far as lawton is conerned, id like to see him back also. hopefully he'd be willing to do a 1-year deal because with his age you cant extend for him for too long.

 

that would leave us with this type of batting order:

 

SS furcal

LF lawton

2B walker

1B lee

3B ramirez

C barrett

CF pie

RF murton

 

now that is major speed at the top of the order with furcal and lawton. todd walker is not a 3-hole hitter, but he's a high OBP guy and will certainly get on-base for lee and ramirez to drive him in. lee is more the protype 3-hole guy, but i would rather move lawton down in the order than walker because he takes such good at-bats.

 

im also moving murton to RF because corey is not fit to start at CF for my cubbies anymore and id like to see lawton back for a full-season. having furcal/lawton going 1 and 2 would be alot of fun to watch for an entire season. kind of change the dynamics of the team.

[rocket]

Pie has yet to play above AA ball (and hasn't even played a full season there), and also isn't fully developed as a player. I really hope Hendry doesn't pencil him in at CF next year.

[nilodnayr]

I would resign Lawton to a Burnitz contract (5M w/ a team option), sign Giles (and most likely have to overpay) to a two year deal probably 18M or so, sign BJ Ryan to a 3 year deal for about 24M, resign Nomar to a 5M base incentive laden deal, resign Walker.

 

SP (30.5)

Prior (3.55)

Z (5.5)

Wood (12)

Maddux (9)

Williams (.45)

 

RP (11.25)

Ryan (8_)

Williamson (1?)

Wuertz (.45)

Novoa (.45)

Ohman (.45)

Welley (.45)

Mitre (.45)

 

vs. RHP (47.67)

 

Lawton (5)

Walker (2.5)

Lee (8.67)

Giles (9)

Aram (10.5)

Nomar (5)

CPatt (3)

Barrett (4)

 

vs. LHP (2.35 additional)

 

Hairston (2)

Murton (.35)

Lee

Giles

Aram

Nomar

CPatt

Barrett

 

Non-platoon bench players (2.2)

 

Blanco (1.5)

Cedeno (.35)

Fontenot (.35)

 

People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF. Plus I believe Mitre and Welley are out of options with not a ton of trade value right now. Im hoping Rusch doesnt pick up his option but if he does, trade him. Financially, by my count that puts us at ~94M according to Cots plus Arbi estimates. The only buyout is .5M for Burnitz, but Nomar and Prior would have somewhat substantial incentive laden deals (talking about realistic 1M +). So that means we should have a few million to work with midseason/next offseason. It'd be nice to sign Milwood, but assuming he finishes the year healthy he will be given a pretty meaty multiyear deal from one of the richer teams that needs pitching help. I would like to resign Dempster to set up Ryan and act as insurance for Wood, but his market is unknown and it seems as though he wishes to start so he too might go to another team that needs starting pitching.

[Brian]

do not put Mitre in the pen, start him or trade him.

[Iceblink]

It seems Dusty won't have Murton as a starter unless he has no other choice. And I don't think Murton has the arm for RF (though Sammy didn't for his last 5 years here, and that didn't stop us.) I think it's more likely that we'd see a Lawton/Murton platoon, with Lawton getting some starts against lefties and Murton occasionally starting in RF in those games. Still, as much as I like Matt, there aren't enough ABs to know if we can count on him yet...all the more reason he should be playing everyday.

 

Walker in the 3 hole isn't going to work - he's a good hitter but not a run producer. If we had nobody else in the lineup, I'd put Lee 3rd and drop Walker to 5th behind ARam.

[Backtobanks]

I don't see why people want Lawton back. I think he has been terrible on offense and defense. I think Murton alone can match Lawton on offense and outplay him on defense.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF.

 

Who backs up first base in this situation?

[EricG]

People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF.

 

Who backs up first base in this situation?

Todd Walker has played 1B. maybe see if Barrett can play 1B in a pinch.

[AramisRamirez]

yeah giles and furcal would be two huge additions.

 

SS furcal .269 BA, 39 SB

2B walker .303 BA, .392 OBP

1B lee .325 BA, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 15 SB

3B ramirez .318 BA, 40 HR, 120 RBI

OF giles .288 BA, 34 HR, 105 RBI

OF lawton .267 BA, 22 SB

C barrett .278 BA

OF murton .270 BA

 

SP1 prior 15-7, 190 IP, 3.39 ERA

SP2 zambrano 22-10, 217 IP, 3.66 ERA

SP3 wood 8-6, 110 IP, 4.01 ERA

SP4 williams 7-12, 166 IP, 4.15 ERA

SP5 maddux 13-15, 205 IP, 4.77 ERA

 

RP dempster

 

our payroll would be big bringnig in furcal and giles, plus re-signing matt lawton. probably push us into the $110M stratosphere, which couldnt be more unlikely.

[rawaction]

I agree with every one of your moves, except Furcal. Christian Guzman got a ton of money. Renteria and Cabrera got $8M. Furcal is younger, faster, and a better fit for any team (i.e. leadoff hitter) than those two. Someone will pay him $10M.

[rawaction]

yeah giles and furcal would be two huge additions.

 

SS furcal .269 BA, 39 SB

2B walker .303 BA, .392 OBP

1B lee .325 BA, 35 HR, 120 RBI, 15 SB

3B ramirez .318 BA, 40 HR, 120 RBI

OF giles .288 BA, 34 HR, 105 RBI

OF lawton .267 BA, 22 SB

C barrett .278 BA

OF murton .270 BA

 

SP1 prior 15-7, 190 IP, 3.39 ERA

SP2 zambrano 22-10, 217 IP, 3.66 ERA

SP3 wood 8-6, 110 IP, 4.01 ERA

SP4 williams 7-12, 166 IP, 4.15 ERA

SP5 maddux 13-15, 205 IP, 4.77 ERA

 

RP dempster

 

our payroll would be big bringnig in furcal and giles, plus re-signing matt lawton. probably push us into the $110M stratosphere, which couldnt be more unlikely.

 

Lawton is much more likely to have a higher OBP than Furcal and Walker. Walker won't come close to a .392 OBP. Giles will get on base more than Ramirez and at a similar rate with Lee. He should be higher up.

 

If that were my team, the lineup would be:

 

Lawton

Furcal

Lee

Giles

Ramirez

Walker

Murton

Barrett

[goonys evil twin]

Lawton is much more likely to have a higher OBP than Furcal and Walker. Walker won't come close to a .392 OBP.

 

Much more likely? I agree Lawton would likely have a higher OBP than Furcal, and Walker won't approach .392, however, neither Walker nor Lawton are likely to significantly out-OBP the other.

 

The past 4 years:

Lawton -.342, .343, .366, .363

 

Walker - .353, .333, .352, .351

 

Lawton is about 1.5 years older. He's slightly outperformed on 3 of the past 4 years, but he's no guarantee. Both of these guys are good, but not great OBP players, and either of them would be a competent, but not spectacular top of the order guy.

 

I'm assuming an OF of Murton, Giles, Lawton means Giles is in center.

 

That's a pretty bad defensive OF, and offensively still full of questions (Giles is old and has declined in recent years, Lawton is a 4th OF, Murton could be a nice cost effective weapon, but he's nobody you can count on for a full season of corner OF production).

[rawaction]

Lawton is much more likely to have a higher OBP than Furcal and Walker. Walker won't come close to a .392 OBP.

 

Much more likely? I agree Lawton would likely have a higher OBP than Furcal, and Walker won't approach .392, however, neither Walker nor Lawton are likely to significantly out-OBP the other.

 

The past 4 years:

Lawton -.342, .343, .366, .363

 

Walker - .353, .333, .352, .351

 

Lawton is about 1.5 years older. He's slightly outperformed on 3 of the past 4 years, but he's no guarantee. Both of these guys are good, but not great OBP players, and either of them would be a competent, but not spectacular top of the order guy.

 

I'm assuming an OF of Murton, Giles, Lawton means Giles is in center.

 

That's a pretty bad defensive OF, and offensively still full of questions (Giles is old and has declined in recent years, Lawton is a 4th OF, Murton could be a nice cost effective weapon, but he's nobody you can count on for a full season of corner OF production).

 

I'd say 3 years in a row of performing at a higher OBP level, is pretty close to a guarantee. Walker's OBP is largely driven by BA this year. His BB/9 of 04 seems to be an anomoly when you look at his last 5 seasons.

 

And I seriously disagree with the fact that you think the NL's 2nd best leadoff hitter thru July is a 4th OF.

[nilodnayr]

People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF.

 

Who backs up first base in this situation?

 

Well who do you consider our backup firstbaseman now? Macias? You cant surely be advocating keeping Macias. Walker will do just fine starting a couple of games and if Lee were to go down I'd rather bring up Sing as he surely could do as well as a 25th man.

[nilodnayr]

I agree with every one of your moves, except Furcal. Christian Guzman got a ton of money. Renteria and Cabrera got $8M. Furcal is younger, faster, and a better fit for any team (i.e. leadoff hitter) than those two. Someone will pay him $10M.

 

The emergence of Cedeno makes signing Furcal a waste of money. I wish we would ahve gotten a better look at him this year but nothing has proven that we need to overpay a ridiculous amount for a guy who gets on base at a 330 clip

[Transmogrified Tiger]

People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF.

 

Who backs up first base in this situation?

 

Well who do you consider our backup firstbaseman now? Macias? You cant surely be advocating keeping Macias. Walker will do just fine starting a couple of games and if Lee were to go down I'd rather bring up Sing as he surely could do as well as a 25th man.

 

I have no idea who our backup is this year, it's one of several things I'd like to see remedied. With a backup that at least has played significant time there in the past, Baker might be more likely to give Lee the rest he needs.

[Brian]

I have no idea who our backup is this year, it's one of several things I'd like to see remedied. With a backup that at least has played significant time there in the past, Baker might be more likely to give Lee the rest he needs.

 

Adam Dunn can play 1st :D.

[CarolinaCubFan]

The biggest move that can be made to improve this team in the off season? Fire Baker. If that move isn't made, let the likes of Perez, Hollandsworth, and Marcias take Dusty to the promised land. If Baker is still in Chicago next season, Hendry needs to go as well. With that off my chest, I'll play now.

 

Manny, Giles, and Burnett are all great options, but we won't be the only team in Baseball trying to improve. I could see us getting one of them, but that just won't fix this team.

 

Here's a scenario: Boston wins the AL East and the Yanks don't even make the playoffs. I could see George going crazy. They have coffers of cash, but with the weak FA market, it won't do much good. They are limited by a weak farm system and huge contracts on the big club. Just a hunch on my part, but I think Arod is attainable. No reason to go into details on a trade, but we have the talent and the cash. One move and it completly changes the dynamics of this team.

 

I'd love to keep Nomar, but he's got two hard luck years under his belt now. He has to realize his options aren't what they used to be. If he would agree to move to 2nd, sign him, if not, I'd be happy having Walker back. I understand Nomar might not take well to an Arod move after the whole deal in Boston, but the infield would be one of the most dangerous in the Major Leagues.

 

Looking at the FA market and our Farm System, what could you do with:

 

1.

2. 2B Nomar/Walker

3. 1B Lee

4. SS Arod

5. 3B Aram

6.

7.

8. C Barrett

 

With this infield, we don't need Manny or Giles in the OF. High OBP guys and top of the order hitters will be much easier to find in the OF this offseason. We could afford to take a shot with guys like Pie and Murton. Pie may not be ready, but he'd be playing CF right now if in Tampa or KC.

 

Anyway, just my two cents. What could you guys do with this scenario?

[nilodnayr]

People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF.

 

Who backs up first base in this situation?

 

Well who do you consider our backup firstbaseman now? Macias? You cant surely be advocating keeping Macias. Walker will do just fine starting a couple of games and if Lee were to go down I'd rather bring up Sing as he surely could do as well as a 25th man.

 

I have no idea who our backup is this year, it's one of several things I'd like to see remedied. With a backup that at least has played significant time there in the past, Baker might be more likely to give Lee the rest he needs.

 

Who says he needs it? He sure doesnt. His stats say he doesnt. I say leave him be.

[JeffH]

sign Giles (and most likely have to overpay) to a two year deal probably 18M or so

 

$18/2 is overpaying for Giles? LOL! Good luck trying to get him for that kind of sorry Alou type money.

 

I'd give him $42/4 and be quite happy.

[erik316wttn]

People are probably going to frown on the 12 pitchers, but leaving Dusty with a bench of Blanco, Cedeno, Fontenot, Hairston, and Murton forces him to play the young guys. Hairston is really the key because of his ability to back up at 2B as well as be the 5th OF.

 

Who backs up first base in this situation?

 

Well who do you consider our backup firstbaseman now? Macias? You cant surely be advocating keeping Macias. Walker will do just fine starting a couple of games and if Lee were to go down I'd rather bring up Sing as he surely could do as well as a 25th man.

 

I have no idea who our backup is this year, it's one of several things I'd like to see remedied. With a backup that at least has played significant time there in the past, Baker might be more likely to give Lee the rest he needs.

 

Who says he needs it? He sure doesnt. His stats say he doesnt. I say leave him be.

 

Everyone tires out. Look at his September numbers last year. He was totally gassed. I think a few days off here and there could have preserved his bat for the stretch run.

[nilodnayr]

sign Giles (and most likely have to overpay) to a two year deal probably 18M or so

 

$18/2 is overpaying for Giles? LOL! Good luck trying to get him for that kind of sorry Alou type money.

 

I'd give him $42/4 and be quite happy.

 

Um...Alou was signed to a 1 yr 7.25M contract with a 1M deferred to 2006 and 1.5M deferred to 2007 and a 6M player option for 2006 with money deferred. Nowhere close to the same amount of money.

 

42/4 is absolutely completely ridiculous. Especially considering he is currently signed to 6 year 45M contract, albeit half were arbi buyout years thats still a 3/21 contract during his FA years. He might get a 3 yr contract, but definitely at not over 10M per.

[nilodnayr]

 

Who says he needs it? He sure doesnt. His stats say he doesnt. I say leave him be.

 

Everyone tires out. Look at his September numbers last year. He was totally gassed. I think a few days off here and there could have preserved his bat for the stretch run.

 

Look at his September numbers from the year before. Gassed? Ohh and the year before that. Ohh and the year before that. Yeah, over 3 of the last 4 years he has done significantly better in his last month than he has the rest of the season. Thats what I meant by his stats say he doesnt, Im not convinced giving him days off does anything.

[JeffH]

He might get a 3 yr contract, but definitely at not over 10M per.

 

Wanna bet?

[fearthecubs]

What do you mean Furcal is a huge reason for Atlanta's success - they're letting him go. Usually Atlanta isn't wrong. Oh, and Furcal is a drunk.