Deal for Soriano or Dunn close?

[ThePenguin11]

Shall I repeat:

 

Walker has a .275 EqA,

Soriano has a .288 EqA.

 

Walker has a .297 batting average on balls in play,

Soriano has a .295.

 

Walker has a .313 BA with runners in scoring position,

Soriano has a .270.

 

Walker has a 24.3% line drive percentage,

Soriano has a 21.5%.

(It's estimated that line drives fall for a hit around 75% of the time...)

 

There's a number some of us like to use called GPA - or Gross Production Average. It's not exactly the be-all and end-all but it is a variation of OPS and adjusted for ballpark factor. Generally, the scale is similar to the scale for batting average.

 

Walker's GPA is .275.

Soriano's GPA is .257.

 

Or should we ignore these because they're a bit more abstract? I don't get how anyone tries to use RUNS or RBIs in any discussion. Those are situationally coincidental. They are not talent numbers. You can't subtract Walker's runs from Soriano's and say we would have scored those runs. Would Manny be the RBI machine he is if he played for the Royals? Yeah, he leads in RBI, but Boston also has the highest OBP out of the #1 and 2 hitters in baseball. I'm sure this has NOTHING to do with it... Soriano adds more power, and more speed. He also does it less consistently and less situationally, gets on base less, has worse defense, whines more, is not the leader that Walker is, and it can be argued that all things considered he adds to the team where we don't need it, and subtracts from the team where we do need it. Does that justify paying him 3x what we pay Walker, and losing pieces that could goto a trade that WOULD improve the team?

 

So are you saying that if Soriano played a full season with the Cubs he'd hit 14 home runs with 70 RBI's and score only 70 Runs? Those numbers would still carry over if he joined the Cubs.

 

Don't get me wrong, I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories - but they don't outweigh real year-to-year production. I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless. That's ridiculous.

[USSoccer]

Does that trade really sound like a Hendry trade? Mitre, Welley, Walker and Pinto for one guy who doesn't really correct any of the issues on the team?

 

I think this is either a beat reporter drumming up a rumor, or it's a smokescreen.

[ThePenguin11]

 

Not a big improvement? 20-30 more runs and 20-30 more rbi's??? Do you think his extra 12-15 errors make up for, say, 25 extra runs every year?

 

Yeah, and Adam Dunn has 125 advantage in OPS but has nearly the same about of runs and rbis as soriano, are they equal players? Runs and RBIs are nearly worthless stats that are not indicative of a players production because they are extremely heavily dependent on the other players in the lineup. Just like wins are for a pitcher.

 

Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him?

[cubsfolyfe1]

Does that trade really sound like a Hendry trade? Mitre, Welley, Walker and Pinto for one guy who doesn't really correct any of the issues on the team?

 

I think this is either a beat reporter drumming up a rumor, or it's a smokescreen.

 

Well I think we would be acquiring Soriano based on the fact either he or Walker would be playing left field.

[sonicdethmonkey0]

Don't get me wrong, I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories - but they don't outweigh real year-to-year production. I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless. That's ridiculous.

 

RBI's and runs don't dictate production

[Rusch33]

my hope is fading by the minute.

[ctcf]

my hope is fading by the minute.

 

qft

[nilodnayr]

 

Not a big improvement? 20-30 more runs and 20-30 more rbi's??? Do you think his extra 12-15 errors make up for, say, 25 extra runs every year?

 

Yeah, and Adam Dunn has 125 advantage in OPS but has nearly the same about of runs and rbis as soriano, are they equal players? Runs and RBIs are nearly worthless stats that are not indicative of a players production because they are extremely heavily dependent on the other players in the lineup. Just like wins are for a pitcher.

 

Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him?

 

I didnt mean anything about trading for dunn, i was just saying using your stats to evaluate the hitter, you would say dunn and soriano are equal hitters which is one of the more ridiculous arguments posted here. If you cant believe taht runs and rbis are nearly useless stats then I think you need to realize exactly what nees to ocurr for a player to score a run or bat a run in. Unless its a home run, ANOTHER PLAYER NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Frankly, when evaluating players I'd like to use stats that they actually have some control over. Thats like saying Kerry Wood sucks because when he pitches the cubs don't score a lot of runs.

[Guest]

Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him?

Better to make no deals at all than make a bad one...

 

I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories

I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless.

It's hard to see how those two statements can be reconciled with one another. Runs/RBI are clearly inefficient methods for player evaluation. Stats that isolate a player's production from context are vastly superior, and they show that Walker and Soriano provide the same level of offensive production.

[wilk]

So are you saying that if Soriano played a full season with the Cubs he'd hit 14 home runs with 70 RBI's and score only 70 Runs? Those numbers would still carry over if he joined the Cubs.

 

Don't get me wrong, I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories - but they don't outweigh real year-to-year production. I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless. That's ridiculous.

 

WHAT? That's not what I'm saying at all. How the heck do you claim I said he'd hit 14 HR? The issue is that you apparently believe that runs and RBIs are self-contained, independent numbers and that is undeniably wrong. They have to do with the team, the situation, and coincidence. So Manny Ramirez would have the same number of RBI if he were on the Pirates? Is that what you're saying? It's not about if you "believe in" sabermetric stats, they also give real production. Are you suggesting they are hypothetical or imaginery? Because they're not. How often you get on-base is real, too. Texas has scored the 3rd most runs in baseball - does this have nothing to do with having high R or RBI numbers? If you think these numbers have more meaning than the numbers I gave, you're simply wrong. RBI and RUN do NOT carry over by team. The idea that you think Manny Ramirez would still drive in 130 runs on a team like the Pirates is pretty absurd. Yes, Soriano obviously hits more homeruns. Outside that, there isn't very much unless you want to ignore all complex numbers and dismiss them as not real production, and assume RBI and R are the true measure of a player's production. Similarly, a pitcher's Wins carry over from the best team in baseball to the worse, right?

[USSoccer]

Let's everyone take a deep breath. There will be plenty of time to freak out if/when something actually happens. O:)

[ctcf]

This Soriano - Walkah debate has made me tired.

 

And now I am worried, tired, and sad.

 

UGH

[CubsWin]

The only way Soriano helps the Cubs is if they don't give up too much to get him and either he or Walker agree to play LF and play it fairly well. Since Soriano isn't a great fit for what ails the Cubs offense, doesn't play a great defensive 2B and is somewhat expensive, I wouldn't give up Walker or any top prospect to get him.

[USSoccer]

The only way Soriano helps the Cubs is if they don't give up too much to get him and either he or Walker agree to play LF and play it fairly well. Since Soriano isn't a great fit for what ails the Cubs offense, doesn't play a great defensive 2B and is somewhat expensive, I wouldn't give up Walker or any top prospect to get him.

 

Remember Walker playing LF last year in the 9th inning of a blowout game? It was hilarious...

[CubsHawks25]

I gotta go to work. :x

 

 

GIT-R-DONE, JIMBO!!!

[CubsWin]

This isn't the ideal market for getting a big player. I am not going to be overly disappointed if the Cubs don't acquire someone like Dunn. Not

because their chances of making the playoffs wouldn't be helped a ton if they got him, they would. But because I believe Hendry would have done everything in his power to improve the team and the market simply made it too difficult to get much done. Too many teams are still in it, so GMs are still asking for the moon thinking that they can get it. If Hendry were selling someone like ARam in this market, you wouldn't want to settle for anything less than a lot either.

 

My analysis tells me that Matt Lawton is still a salary dump guy for Pittsburgh no matter what Littlefield says. I think besides Dunn, he can help the Cubs most by batting at the top of the order. He and Murton in LF would be a vast improvement over Murton and either Gerut of Hollandsworth. You could also move Burnitz to CF and fill in your corner OF spots with whomever matches up against that days pitcher best. That way Hairston can still come off the bench which keeps Macias in a true 25th man role. If hendry can't pry Dunn away from Cincinnati, then I hope he comes away with Lawton.

[CubsWin]

The only way Soriano helps the Cubs is if they don't give up too much to get him and either he or Walker agree to play LF and play it fairly well. Since Soriano isn't a great fit for what ails the Cubs offense, doesn't play a great defensive 2B and is somewhat expensive, I wouldn't give up Walker or any top prospect to get him.

 

Remember Walker playing LF last year in the 9th inning of a blowout game? It was hilarious...

Precisely why I'm not a big fan of trading for Soriano.

[ThePenguin11]

Don't get me wrong, I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories - but they don't outweigh real year-to-year production. I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless. That's ridiculous.

 

RBI's and runs don't dictate production

 

No they display it.

[CubsWin]

Don't get me wrong, I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories - but they don't outweigh real year-to-year production. I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless. That's ridiculous.

 

RBI's and runs don't dictate production

 

No they display it.

But can you show that they aren't dependent on the rest of the players in the line-up?

[ThePenguin11]

 

Not a big improvement? 20-30 more runs and 20-30 more rbi's??? Do you think his extra 12-15 errors make up for, say, 25 extra runs every year?

 

Yeah, and Adam Dunn has 125 advantage in OPS but has nearly the same about of runs and rbis as soriano, are they equal players? Runs and RBIs are nearly worthless stats that are not indicative of a players production because they are extremely heavily dependent on the other players in the lineup. Just like wins are for a pitcher.

 

Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him?

 

I didnt mean anything about trading for dunn, i was just saying using your stats to evaluate the hitter, you would say dunn and soriano are equal hitters which is one of the more ridiculous arguments posted here. If you cant believe taht runs and rbis are nearly useless stats then I think you need to realize exactly what nees to ocurr for a player to score a run or bat a run in. Unless its a home run, ANOTHER PLAYER NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Frankly, when evaluating players I'd like to use stats that they actually have some control over. Thats like saying Kerry Wood sucks because when he pitches the cubs don't score a lot of runs.

 

Dunn and Soriano are both greatly productive for different reasons. What I don't understand is why everyone thinks that our lineup is so far inferior to the Rangers'. Todd Walker wouldn't be any more productive playing for Texas and Soriano wouldn't be any less productive batting sixth for the Cubs. Is that such a stretch?

[nilodnayr]

Don't get me wrong, I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories - but they don't outweigh real year-to-year production. I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless. That's ridiculous.

 

RBI's and runs don't dictate production

 

No they display it.

 

Production of the guys hitting infront of and behind soriano

[ThePenguin11]

Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him?

Better to make no deals at all than make a bad one...

 

I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories

I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless.

It's hard to see how those two statements can be reconciled with one another. Runs/RBI are clearly inefficient methods for player evaluation. Stats that isolate a player's production from context are vastly superior, and they show that Walker and Soriano provide the same level of offensive production.

 

My point is that both are good for evaluation. But even Bill James and Billy Beane will tell you that you cannot throw out one or the other when evaluating a player. And in this instance, Soriano's classic (not archaic) baseball statistics more heavily outweigh Walker's abstract data. You just cant throw out one in favor of the other - that's not the way Sabermetric and abstract statistics were meant to be used. They are a supplement for evaluating talent and in most cases they are used for minor leaguers and prospective draft picks. You use them for minor leaguers because there are so many external factors that separate the different minor league levels.

[nilodnayr]

 

Not a big improvement? 20-30 more runs and 20-30 more rbi's??? Do you think his extra 12-15 errors make up for, say, 25 extra runs every year?

 

Yeah, and Adam Dunn has 125 advantage in OPS but has nearly the same about of runs and rbis as soriano, are they equal players? Runs and RBIs are nearly worthless stats that are not indicative of a players production because they are extremely heavily dependent on the other players in the lineup. Just like wins are for a pitcher.

 

Again, I love Adam Dunn, but what if we can't trade for him?

 

I didnt mean anything about trading for dunn, i was just saying using your stats to evaluate the hitter, you would say dunn and soriano are equal hitters which is one of the more ridiculous arguments posted here. If you cant believe taht runs and rbis are nearly useless stats then I think you need to realize exactly what nees to ocurr for a player to score a run or bat a run in. Unless its a home run, ANOTHER PLAYER NEEDS TO DO SOMETHING. Frankly, when evaluating players I'd like to use stats that they actually have some control over. Thats like saying Kerry Wood sucks because when he pitches the cubs don't score a lot of runs.

 

Dunn and Soriano are both greatly productive for different reasons. What I don't understand is why everyone thinks that our lineup is so far inferior to the Rangers'. Todd Walker wouldn't be any more productive playing for Texas and Soriano wouldn't be any less productive batting sixth for the Cubs. Is that such a stretch?

 

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9

 

Um, because our lineup is inferior to the Rangers. They score a ton more runs than we do, hence Sorianos runs and rbis.

[ThePenguin11]

So are you saying that if Soriano played a full season with the Cubs he'd hit 14 home runs with 70 RBI's and score only 70 Runs? Those numbers would still carry over if he joined the Cubs.

 

Don't get me wrong, I loved Moneyball, and believe in Jamesean / Sabermetric theories - but they don't outweigh real year-to-year production. I can't believe that runs and RBI's are meaningless. That's ridiculous.

 

WHAT? That's not what I'm saying at all. How the heck do you claim I said he'd hit 14 HR? The issue is that you apparently believe that runs and RBIs are self-contained, independent numbers and that is undeniably wrong. They have to do with the team, the situation, and coincidence. So Manny Ramirez would have the same number of RBI if he were on the Pirates? Is that what you're saying? It's not about if you "believe in" sabermetric stats, they also give real production. Are you suggesting they are hypothetical or imaginery? Because they're not. How often you get on-base is real, too. Texas has scored the 3rd most runs in baseball - does this have nothing to do with having high R or RBI numbers? If you think these numbers have more meaning than the numbers I gave, you're simply wrong. RBI and RUN do NOT carry over by team. The idea that you think Manny Ramirez would still drive in 130 runs on a team like the Pirates is pretty absurd. Yes, Soriano obviously hits more homeruns. Outside that, there isn't very much unless you want to ignore all complex numbers and dismiss them as not real production, and assume RBI and R are the true measure of a player's production. Similarly, a pitcher's Wins carry over from the best team in baseball to the worse, right?

 

Our offense isn't that much inferior to the Rangers' offense. AT NO POINT DID I SAY THAT JUST BECAUSE A GUY IS GOOD IN ONE LINEUP THAT HE'LL BE GOOD IN ANY OTHER. I'm saying that the Cubs lineup will present just as many opportunities for Soriano as the Rangers'.

[CubsWin]

Here is the latest from Rumor Central on ESPN.com...

Jul 31 - ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports the race for Alfonso Soriano appeared Sunday to be down to two teams -- the Twins and Cubs -- after the Mets backed off. But one baseball man who had spoken with the Texas brass estimated that the odds were down to one in 100 that Soriano would be moved at all.

 

The Cubs won't part with pitcher Rich Hill or their top prospect, center fielder Felix Pie. And Texas is asking for both.

 

The Twins, meanwhile, are resisting including smokeballer Francisco Liriano in any deal. And clubs that have been in touch with the Rangers said Sunday that if those players were untouchable, Soriano will still be in Texas at the deadline.

 

However, an official of another team said Texas had stepped up its efforts to add pitching, whether it trades Soriano or not. One mild rumor had the Rangers trading for Matt Lawton and then moving another position player (David Dellucci?) for a starting pitcher.

I bolded the parts I found interesting. I'm glad that neither Hill nor Pie would be given up. And, hmmm, Lawton and Delucci for Mitre and some other prospect? Or maybe just one of them for Mitre? Is Hendry bringing in the Rangers in a 3-way deal to land Lawton or Delucci or both?