A look at the second half. Can the Cubs contend for WC?

[CubFanPhilly]

Yup, we can. The Nationals are playing above their heads. I think it's silly to dismiss them from the wildcard, but they aren't going to win the division. So really we're right in the thick of things for the wild card, only six games back now and I expect that gap to the top to close pretty quickly.

If the Nationals aren't going to win the division, thus being relegated to the WC then you have to consider the gap as 8.5 (the games the Cubs are behind WAS) and not the 6 games they are behind the Braves.

 

And a 38-36 record gets the Nationals to 90 wins which has been pretty much the minimum for the WC.

 

Good point. But the flip side of that coin is if Washington does tank in the second half, the Cubs are 1.5 out right now.

 

Do I think they'll tank that badly? Probably not. But I could see them go .500 (or slightly worse). That means 89-90 wins could take the WC.

 

CFP

[YearofDaCubs]

Chances are that we are done for.

 

I agree, but there is still that glimmer of hope. And that glimmer is brighter than in several years past, because the talent on this team is so much greater than it's ever been in my lifetime. Of course, they will have to catch several breaks, including at least one team that is currently playing well to fall on its face.

 

I think there is that glimmer of hope, and that is the pitching staff. I am not saying this will or even is likely to happen, but with our starting staff, we have on of the only teams who could realistically reel off 10 straight or 12 of 13, etc. That is of course provided that the offense continues the approach we saw them adopt in the Florida series, or we may see another eight game losing streak, which they are equally capable of.

Sorry, but when was the last time we won 10 straight? I cant even remember the last time we did that and def never since Baker has been manager. We never had the offense to win 10 straight even with our pitching.

[CubFanPhilly]

Those 14 games against st. loius stick out like a sore thumb.

 

No doubt. Unlike last season, the Cubs will have to go through St. Louis to get to the playoffs. The rest of the 2nd half schedule, however, is every bit as soft as last year.

 

 

btw- the balance of July: PIT (4), @CIN (4), @STL (3) SF (3) ARI (4) . Win fewer than 10 of those games going into that last weekend and I'd be a seller on July 31st.

[SouthSideRyan]

Those 14 games against st. loius stick out like a sore thumb.

 

No doubt. Unlike last season, the Cubs will have to go through St. Louis to get to the playoffs. The rest of the 2nd half schedule, however, is every bit as soft as last year.

 

 

btw- the balance of July: PIT (4), @CIN (4), @STL (3) SF (3) ARI (4) . Win fewer than 10 of those games going into that last weekend and I'd be a seller on July 31st.

 

The Cubs had to go through St. Louis to get to the playoffs last year too. Just like they do every year. Playing them late makes no difference.

[TheDude]

The team needs to shoot for 90 wins, which would be a 45-30 finish. I'd expect a split of the 24 games left against Houston and St. Louis. That means the team would have to go 33-18 against the rest of the schedule; can the Cubs win every series for those games?

 

Logic and reason suggest it won't happen. Fortunately for all of us, defying logic and reason is what draws us into sports. Go Cubs.

[LoneStarCubFan]

Yup, we can. The Nationals are playing above their heads. I think it's silly to dismiss them from the wildcard, but they aren't going to win the division. So really we're right in the thick of things for the wild card, only six games back now and I expect that gap to the top to close pretty quickly.

If the Nationals aren't going to win the division, thus being relegated to the WC then you have to consider the gap as 8.5 (the games the Cubs are behind WAS) and not the 6 games they are behind the Braves.

 

And a 38-36 record gets the Nationals to 90 wins which has been pretty much the minimum for the WC.

 

Good point. But the flip side of that coin is if Washington does tank in the second half, the Cubs are 1.5 out right now.

 

Do I think they'll tank that badly? Probably not. But I could see them go .500 (or slightly worse). That means 89-90 wins could take the WC.

 

CFP

 

Agreed. As silly as it sounds, the Cubs need to blow past Houston and put them away. We need Atlanta to dominate Washington and Florida and have the latter two beat up on each other the rest of the year. If all of that happens I think they're in.

[neely crenshaw]

our pitching coming back helps, hopefully it pitches to it's potential. we still need to pick up some position help. with nomar out and probably not coming back, our lineup is probably the worst in the national league except for colorado. our outfield is definitely the worst (again save for colorado) we can not afford to let dlee and aram be our only consistent threats. we simply do not have the margin for error. we have 43 wins, as most people have stated, barring a collapse from the east, 90 wins are probably needed. with this lineup going 47-28 will be nearly impossible.

[XZero771679666304]

Chances are that we are done for.

 

I agree, but there is still that glimmer of hope. And that glimmer is brighter than in several years past, because the talent on this team is so much greater than it's ever been in my lifetime. Of course, they will have to catch several breaks, including at least one team that is currently playing well to fall on its face.

 

I think there is that glimmer of hope, and that is the pitching staff. I am not saying this will or even is likely to happen, but with our starting staff, we have on of the only teams who could realistically reel off 10 straight or 12 of 13, etc. That is of course provided that the offense continues the approach we saw them adopt in the Florida series, or we may see another eight game losing streak, which they are equally capable of.

Sorry, but when was the last time we won 10 straight? I cant even remember the last time we did that and def never since Baker has been manager. We never had the offense to win 10 straight even with our pitching.

 

Sorry, but I did say "not likely" and that the Cubs are "capable". No where did I say it would happen, just that it was within the realm of possibility. Besides, if used correctly, as we saw in Florida, the offense is very capable of scoring 5-6 runs a game for a prolonged stretch, and the pitching, 1-5, is capable of shutting teams down for a good stretch too. The point was that we have a weapon in our starting pitching that most teams don't have, and that is at least the source for a glimmer of hope.