Dunn to Dodgers?

[JC]

One last note: Can we stop talking about trading a pitching prospect whose one big flaw at this point is giving up too many HR's to Cincy? I think they'd be more interested in a pitcher who can keep the ball in the park.

 

Two words: Eric Milton :wink:

 

If we took back Milton's contract, it certainly would make it easier to acquire Dunn.

 

I thought about that. It would certainly make sense (to the extent they don't want to give up multiple arms) for the Cubs to send an arm, like Hill, and pick up Milton's contract for Dunn. The Cubs could then peddle Milton to someone like the DRays and pick up 90% of his contract. Not necessarily the most fiscally responsible thing to do, but it may receive a better reception from Cincy. They could invest that Milton/Dunn money into someone like a Burnett.

[ThePenguin11]

Again, let's not lose sight of the fact that Dunn is still just 25. Sure there are problems with Dunn's game, but in this thread I think they're being made out to be worse than they really are. Dunn is one of the best offensive players in the league, he's quite young, and he's rumored to be available. As has been mentioned, with the dearth of quality players available this offseason, and with no certainty in any of our OF spots for next year, I think if it came down to it I would overpay to get Dunn. Pie, Dope, Hill? That's crazy, despite the flaws of each player. Two of the three? I'd have to think really hard about that if that's the minimum it would take to get Dunn.

 

If you read this thread and knew nothing about the current state of baseball and it's players, you'd think Adam Dunn was horrible. Now is the time to get him. Strike while the iron's hot. I believe he's on the cusp of blowing the league away with his ability. If his average was .270 and the rest of his numbers were exactly the same (take some of his walks away and make them base hits) people would trade anything for him. It's all the same in the end. Only 6 NL players score more runs than he does. He gets on base and reaches home plate. He knocks in runs. He takes pitches and wears pitchers out. He's very, very talented.

I hope this isn't supposed to be a characterization of my argument.

Partially. You were one of a number of posters who made it seem if there was something wrong with his ability. For his one weakness, striking out, he has many more strengths. He combines plate discipline, speed and power. The way I see people talking about him makes him out to look like a scrub. Calling him a flawed hitter when he takes more walks than 99% of the league is inaccurate and unfair.

So which part of me saying that he'd be a huge upgrade in our OF is calling him a scrub? Or do you just feel that you need to miscast my argument to make yours look better?

 

 

Just to be sure I'm understood:

 

- I think Dunn is a very good player, one of the better offensive OF's in baseball

- I would be really happy to have him on the Cubs

- I also feel he does have holes in his game that somewhat limit his value

- Therefore, I'd be a little cautious about the package I put together to acquire him

 

Also, for those that say Dunn would do better in a superior lineup...The Reds have significantly outscored the Cubs so far this year. He's already in a better lineup than the Cubs have.

 

 

 

-----

 

 

One last note: Can we stop talking about trading a pitching prospect whose one big flaw at this point is giving up too many HR's to Cincy? I think they'd be more interested in a pitcher who can keep the ball in the park.

 

I said "partially". The point is he's as good an outfielder as we are going to be able to acquire. His plate discipline and power lead me to believe he has the potential to be one of the great hitters in the league, if not already. He's gone through a number of coaching changes, all of whom have been awful. I didn't say you called him a scrub. As you can see, I stated that a great number of posters make it seem like he's barely above average. And for the record, I don't believe that I miscast your argument, I merely refuted your statement that he's a flawed hitter. He's a young hitter with a lot of great qualities that don't usually set in for many great major leaguers until later in their careers. I think he's ahead of the game in my opinion. They can't all be Pujols. Think about Derrek Lee's progress, he wasn't even as patient as Dunn until this year and still walks half as much. Imagine if it clicks even half as much for Dunn.

[CubfaninCA]

Jerome Williams, Hill, Dope, CPatt and DuBois for Milton and Dunn...

 

The Reds get 3 major leaguers and two prospects w/ big upside. Perhaps Milton could turn things around in Chicago.

 

Tear it apart now. :D

[brinoch]

Jerome Williams, Hill, Dope, CPatt and DuBois for Milton and Dunn...

 

The Reds get 3 major leaguers and two prospects w/ big upside. Perhaps Milton could turn things around in Chicago.

 

Tear it apart now. :D

 

Nah, that's too much. We don't need or want Milton, that would strictly be a salary dump -- which is a disadvantage to Cincy. I think you're more likely to see something like Dubois, Hill and Sing for Dunn and Milton.

[davecubsfan]

Jerome Williams, Hill, Dope, CPatt and DuBois for Milton and Dunn...

 

The Reds get 3 major leaguers and two prospects w/ big upside. Perhaps Milton could turn things around in Chicago.

 

Tear it apart now. :D

 

Nah, that's too much. We don't need or want Milton, that would strictly be a salary dump -- which is a disadvantage to Cincy. I think you're more likely to see something like Dubois, Hill and Sing for Dunn and Milton.

 

Swap Sing out for a legitimate prospect and I think you've got it. I don't think they'd want Sing. He's an older prospect.

[treebird]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

 

 

That said, we often seem to have more trouble as a team against the dregs of the league, so maybe we should go after Dunn. :D

 

You read BP, right? They've done a number of studies and found no evidence whatsoever that indicate that some hitters and "bad pitcher" hitters.

 

Although I guess if we're just going to go with gut feelings about players who are great in order to declare them to be only good, we're never going to trade for anybody.

[treebird]

You know what? I don't think we should trade for Dunn. Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there. I'll bet we'd end up with some bizarre Macias-Dunn platoon. Not to mention the fact that he'd probably pinch hit for Dunn against lefties, and pull him in the 7th for a defensive replacement.

[Geech]

Although I guess if we're just going to go with gut feelings about players who are great in order to declare them to be only good, we're never going to trade for anybody.

 

That's an unfair mischaracterization of Tim's posts in this thread. He called him one of the top offensive outfielders.

[rocket]

Also, for those that say Dunn would do better in a superior lineup...The Reds have significantly outscored the Cubs so far this year. He's already in a better lineup than the Cubs have.

 

The Cubs + Dunn > The Reds + Dunn. Is it fair to say that the lineup that Dunn is a part of is better than a lineup he isn't a part of? I sincerely believe the Cubs lineup with Dunn would be a lot more effective than the Reds current lineup with Dunn.

 

But that wasn't my point anyways. Dunn bats 6th in the Cincy lineup, so the argument was that a big reason that Dunn's OBP is so high is because the Reds #7 hitter is garbage, so Dunn never gets a good pitch to hit. I think the Cubs could offer him better protection than that, so if Dunn was supposedly protected by Ramirez, he would see better pitches to hit, so his AVG and SLG would increase. I don't think the Reds can offer the kind of protection that the Cubs could provide.

[Mark_R]

You know what? I don't think we should trade for Dunn. Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there. I'll bet we'd end up with some bizarre Macias-Dunn platoon. Not to mention the fact that he'd probably pinch hit for Dunn against lefties, and pull him in the 7th for a defensive replacement.

 

 

I don't care if you're joking, don't miscast Dusty as being racist.

[1908]

Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there.

Where did that come from?

[treebird]

Although I guess if we're just going to go with gut feelings about players who are great in order to declare them to be only good, we're never going to trade for anybody.

 

That's an unfair mischaracterization of Tim's posts in this thread. He called him one of the top offensive outfielders.

 

It's just a matter of degree. I think Dunn is the kind of guy you sell the farm for, Tim doesn't.

[Geech]

Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there.

Where did that come from?

 

I think playing in the heat, mebbe.

[Geech]

It's just a matter of degree. I think Dunn is the kind of guy you sell the farm for, Tim doesn't.

 

Fair enough.

[treebird]

Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there.

Where did that come from?

 

oh god is adam dunn not white? brb

 

 

 

 

edit: we have confirmation

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v386/edstevensiscool/10107251.jpg

phew i was nervous for a second there

[ltb]

You know what? I don't think we should trade for Dunn. Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there. I'll bet we'd end up with some bizarre Macias-Dunn platoon. Not to mention the fact that he'd probably pinch hit for Dunn against lefties, and pull him in the 7th for a defensive replacement.

 

 

I don't care if you're joking, don't miscast Dusty as being racist.

 

i think he's referring to the comment dusty made about black players being able to absorb heat better.

[1908]

Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there.

Where did that come from?

 

oh god is adam dunn not white? brb

Your remarks are getting less and less funny.

[treebird]

Do people really think Dusty would play him? He's white, he strikes out, he doesn't hit for a high average. That's three strikes right there.

Where did that come from?

 

oh god is adam dunn not white? brb

Your remarks are getting less and less funny.

 

My apologies. I don't really think Dusty racist.

 

Please continue with Dunn Discussions now.

[Tim]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

 

 

That said, we often seem to have more trouble as a team against the dregs of the league, so maybe we should go after Dunn. :D

 

You read BP, right? They've done a number of studies and found no evidence whatsoever that indicate that some hitters and "bad pitcher" hitters.

 

Although I guess if we're just going to go with gut feelings about players who are great in order to declare them to be only good, we're never going to trade for anybody.

I let my BP subscription lapse in March. I'll renew it soon, but I've got a couple of things I need to accomplish first. I read them for several years before this March, though, and I don't remember seeing any studies on it.

[treebird]

Here's the thing, despite the power and patience, Dunn is flawed as a hitter. He's a huge upgrade over what we have out there, but he's not the guy that I trade the farm for. If I'm going to make an offer of Pie + Dope + Hill, I want someone with a complete game like Abreu in return. And yes, I do recognize the age difference. My take is that I see Dunn as a guy that can devour bad pitching, but can also be dominated by good ones.

 

I wish there were a stats service that broke out player's numbers versus quality of pitcher (though that would be hard to define, obviously). I have no idea if my impression is right. In general, I just feel that guys with strikeout rates that high (including Patterson, Sosa in the past, etc.) are more vulnerable to the quality pitchers.

 

 

That said, we often seem to have more trouble as a team against the dregs of the league, so maybe we should go after Dunn. :D

 

You read BP, right? They've done a number of studies and found no evidence whatsoever that indicate that some hitters and "bad pitcher" hitters.

 

Although I guess if we're just going to go with gut feelings about players who are great in order to declare them to be only good, we're never going to trade for anybody.

I let my BP subscription lapse in March. I'll renew it soon, but I've got a couple of things I need to accomplish first. I read them for several years before this March, though, and I don't remember seeing any studies on it.

 

The biggest one was somewhat recent and could well have been post-March. I'll try to find it, for no more reason than to show that I'm not making things up/insane.

[frostwyrm]

I remember Eric Karros couldn't hit any decent RHP to save his life, but he could hit some of the bad ones.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

From the Successful General Manager's Handbook:

 

1. Never trade from a position of weakness.

2. Never try and outbid another team for a "hot" player.

3. Buy grossly underperforming players when cheap and unloved; sell grossly overperforming players when expensive and idolized.

4. Use prospect depth in trades; develop top prospects for use in-house.

 

You may like Dunn, but Kearns makes more sense for Jim Hendry. I would also be keen to get the unfathomably-unloved Johnny Gomes away from Tampa and in our house. In our own system, Murton and Pie are not tradeable by me (at this point) since I think they can solve problems for us. OTOH, position player prospects Patterson, Dubois and Kelton I gladly trade because they are not a long-term solution for us; position player prospects Sing, Dopirak, Collins and Craig I gladly trade because they cannot solve ML problems for us. I will continue to withhold judgment on Ryan Harvey, but I'm quickly losing patience.

 

There is no pitcher in our minor league system I wouldn't move in the right trade, because there is no Carlos Zambrano or Mark Prior currently in our system. Frankly, I think we are all guilty of grossly overrating our own pitching prospects. I don't think other GMs and minor league directors in baseball outside Chicago are nearly as in love with guys like Marshall and Pinto as we are.

[jjgman21]

quick question about a player mentioned a few times in this thread.

 

isn't Edwin Jackson the Dodgers version of Angel Guzman? what makes everyone think this oft injured pitcher blows anything the Cubs have away?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

quick question about a player mentioned a few times in this thread.

 

isn't Edwin Jackson the Dodgers version of Angel Guzman? what makes everyone think this oft injured pitcher blows anything the Cubs have away?

 

Very shrewd observation. You're absolutely correct; the Dodgers' top pitching prospects have just as many injuries and question marks as ours do. Unfortunately, if Depo decides to trade them, LA DOES have better position player prospects than we do; in fact, quite a bit better.

[Nobody youd want to know]

I would also be keen to get the unfathomably-unloved Johnny Gomes away from Tampa and in our house.

 

Looks to me like Johnny Gomes is Jason Dubois, with some speed. Don't know how his fielding is, but look at them strikeouts:

 

MINOR LEAGUE BATTING STATS 
Year  Team            G   AB   R   H   2B  3B  HR  RB  IBB SO  SB  CS  OBP   SLG   AVG
2001  R-PRINCETON    62   206  58  60  11  2   16  44  33  73  15  4   .442  .597  .291
2002  A-BAKERSFIELD  134  446  102 124 24  9   30  72  91  173 15  3   .432  .574  .278
2003  AAA-DURHAM     5    19   2   6   2   1   0   1   2   5   0   0   .435  .526  .316
2003  AA-ORLANDO    120   442  68 110  28  3   17  56  53  148 23  2   .348  .441  .249
2004  AAA-DURHAM    114   390  73 100  27  1   26  78  51  136 8   5   .368  .531  .256
TOTALS:             435  1503 303 400  92  16  89  251 230 535 61  14  .393  .526  .266
  

 

Given that Chuck LaMarr will ask for a king's ransom for him, how will this improve the Cubs?