No, the Chicago Cubs Should Not Trade for Tarik Skubal

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Cubs have started their second half 3-3, which is nowhere near good enough. That sounds cruel, but life in the NL Central these days is that unforgiving. The Brewers, who were already sailing toward their fifth division title in six years, have gone 5-1 over the same span, pushing Chicago back to 7 games behind in the standings. FanGraphs still gives the Cubs a handsome 80.7% chance to make the playoffs, and they still offer them fair odds to advance a bit in October. But the truth of the matter is that this isn't going to be The Year, or anything like it, for this team. They have too many flaws, and their competition is too strong. They won't win the division, and their chances for a deep run in October are slim.

Fans and media personalities have tethered the team to Tarik Skubal in trade rumors throughout the early summer, after the Cubs lost Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown to injuries. Without those three, the club desperately needs a frontline starter to brace the rotation, and with the Tigers falling out of contention, Skubal does appear to be available. Here's what I wrote about him for our DiamondCentric Top Trade Candidates list:

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Tarik Skubal, Tigers

LHP  Age: 29 FA: Nov 2026 Sal: $32m

To say pitchers this dominant rarely become available at the deadline would be an understatement served two ways. First, pitchers this dominant essentially never become available at the deadline, because second, pitchers hardly ever reach this level of sustained dominance at all, anymore. Skubal is defending two straight American League Cy Young Awards, and while the bone chips in his elbow that forced him to have a fancy new surgery will probably prevent him from winning a third in a row, he’s still one of the top five pitchers in the sport at the moment. A massive lefty, he overpowers hitters with two different fastballs (four-seamer and sinker) that flirt with 100 miles per hour and two elite secondary offerings, in his slider and changeup. He even mixes in the occasional curveball, to keep you honest and make sure you’re late when the heater comes back around. The stuff is augmented by elite control; he’s stingier about free passes than any other starter in the league. In short, he’s an old-fashioned ace, and no player can match the impact he could have for someone come October. That ‘someone’ probably won’t be the Tigers, though. They can’t get more than two steps forward without taking two steps back this year, even since Skubal’s return, and it would take incredible fortitude (bordering on insanity) for Scott Harris to hold onto Skubal amid a lost season and risk having him leave via free agency, for nothing but small-time draft pick compensation.

However, here, I'll also add what I've heard from multiple sources in front offices around the league: the price tag on Skubal is high. You need to start with a top-100-caliber prospect or an equivalently gifted major leaguer under long-term team control, and then you need to throw in at least one meaningful secondary piece. For the Cubs, this would mean trading Jefferson Rojas or Josiah Hartshorn, plus a lottery-ticket arm like Kaleb Wing or Dominick Reid. The Tigers are not high on Moisés Ballesteros or Matt Shaw, according to sources familiar with the team's thinking, so making either of those players the headliner in a Skubal deal is a non-starter.

In the Cubs' current position, with their current roster and given that Skubal will be a free agent at season's end, it doesn't make sense for the team to pay what it would cost to get him. They don't have enough depth in the farm system to make a trade with that much desperation in it.

Instead, here are the names to watch most closely for the team over the next week and a half.

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Reid Detmers, Angels

LHP  Age: 26 FA: Nov 2028 Sal: $2.63m

After a one-season sojourn to the bullpen, Detmers is back in the starting rotation and better than ever. He’s become one of the game’s elite speed-changers, with a fastball at 94 MPH, a changeup at 84, and a curveball at 73, with a sinker and slider mixed in for good measure. The change and curve are particularly effective; he’s just taking the sting out of hitters’ bats by making them cover a huge range of speeds and shapes. With two years of team control left after this year, he’s the kind of arm you could try to build a rotation around, and there’s a chance that the Angels will hold onto him. It’s hard to say whether that chance rose or fell when the team fired GM Perry Minasian. But these are the Angels, and if they keep Detmers beyond this year, he’ll start to get expensive. He’s never likely to have more trade value than he does this summer. You do the math.

Reid Detmers feels more like a Cub than does Skubal, anyway. He doesn't throw as hard, but he's still a lefty, and he comes with two years of team control Skubal doesn't have. That timeline means he could pitch alongside healthy versions of Horton, Cabrera, Brown, Justin Steele and more, if those pitchers ever are truly healthy again, and in the meantime, he would also bolster this team's chances to win a series or two in October. The cost would be as great as the cost of acquiring Skubal, but it would make more sense to pay that price for Detmers. 

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Casey Mize, Tigers

RHP  Age: 29 FA: Nov 2026 Sal: $6.15m

The first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft came into pro ball throwing strikes, and hasn’t stopped. However, injuries and the mysteries of pitching development have held him back in all bids to be the frontline starter the Tigers hoped they were getting with that selection. This year, he’s figured out the latter. He’s now missing bats like a high-end starter, with a pitch mix that has become exceptionally varied. Injuries haven’t stopped nagging and nipping at him, but he’s showing the feel and command that were supposed to make him an elite starter. That it’s happening amid a season in which the Tigers just can’t get untracked is deeply unfortunate, but that it’s happening at all gives the team a chance to cash him in for some real long-term value, rather than watching him leave for modest draft-pick compensation this winter.

If the team does end up defaulting to a rental starter, they could still get their shopping done in Detroit. They just need to do it on a budget. Casey Mize won't cost anywhere near what Skubal would. He could be had for a package headlined by Kevin Alcántara, whose stock is way down anyway, or by bundling a couple of half-promising lower-level pieces. He's a good mid-tier option to insure the team against outright collapse, which is still a very real threat right now. As well as they've played of late, they're still under .500 since the end of their 20-3 stretch in late April and early May, and the reasons why—some key hitters slumping, and the pitching staff ravaged by attrition—could easily rear up again on them in the final two months of the season. A starter in the Mize range is a need even to keep the team in good shape for a Wild Card berth. He'd be more about averting disaster than about chasing glory, but averting disaster could be this team's slogan, anyway.

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Eduardo Rodríguez, Diamondbacks

LHP  Age: 33 FA: Nov 2027 Sal: $21m

Very much a get-you-there guy, Rodríguez will have fans of any acquiring team sweating bullets if he ends up starting a game in the postseason. He’s done so before, but the track record is poor, and he last appeared in October five years ago. His results look good this season, and there’s some genuine craftiness fueling his resurgence, but he’s not missing bats the way he did even in an ostensibly worse 2025. For teams who need a durable back-end starter and have cash to spend, though, he could be an interesting pickup. As the Diamondbacks circle the drain in the NL Wild Card race, they might be happy to get out from under another $25 million owed to Rodríguez after this season—so much so that they’d give him to the right buyer practically for free.

Finally, let's consider what the bare minimum looks like. As of Thursday morning, I rank Skubal No. 2 on the aforelinked trade candidates list; Detmers No. 5; and Mize No. 15. Eduardo Rodríguez ranks 62nd. His raw stuff is fading; he's smoke and mirrors. He's also expensive this year, and owed a bunch of money next year. He would be a kind of second David Peterson, and Peterson might even have more upside.

However, Rodríguez would also cost virtually nothing. That, plus the chance to pencil him in as a fifth or sixth starter on next year's team, makes him appealing in a way the other names discussed here aren't. The Diamondbacks are in no position to ask for a substantial prospect return, although they could get a little bit more by being willing to eat a chunk of the $6.5 million or so that will be left on his deal for 2026 by the deadline. He wouldn't be good enough to materially improve the Cubs' chances of doing anything in the playoffs, but he'd be almost as good a backstop for the rotation as Mize, and he'd come cheaper and with an extra year of control.

A Skubal trade would be splashy and sexy. It would also be a mistake. It's fair to say that the Cubs are heavily invested in 2026, financially and in terms of the timelines on their key players. Unimposing though he's been at the plate, Alex Bregman is unlikely to be better in any future year than he is right now, at age 32. Ditto for Dansby Swanson. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ will depart as free agents this winter, and the Cubs' farm system is thin. Those are reasons to wonder whether they'll be better in any of the next several years than they are right now. On the other hand, they're also reasons not to throw caution to the wind. There's still a chance that the team can be better than this, with sustained commitment to scouting and player development and with a bit better luck in the health department. They need to avoid annihilating that chance by swinging for the fences at this deadline; they're just not a good enough team to warrant taking that risk.

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[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

But the truth of the matter is that this isn't going to be The Year, or anything like it, for this team. They have too many flaws, and their competition is too strong.

 

1 hour ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

It's fair to say that the Cubs are heavily invested in 2026, financially and in terms of the timelines on their key players. Unimposing though he's been at the plate, Alex Bregman is unlikely to be better in any future year than he is right now, at age 32. Ditto for Dansby Swanson. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ will depart as free agents this winter, and the Cubs' farm system is thin. Those are reasons to wonder whether they'll be better in any of the next several years than they are right now.

If these are your starting positions, what are all the half measure trade proposals even for? If the Cubs with the hypothetical addition of, at worst, a top 5 pitcher in baseball, still have too many flaws to be 'anything like' close enough to compete for World Series, and also this is the best the team is going to be for a while...why even both trying to improve? Why pay the midseason premium on a pitcher when you can get him cheaper in the offseason, a la Cabrera last year? Let some better team (all four of them, per records to date) go mortgage their future. Put Happ, Suzuki, Boyd, Shota, Kelly on the market, try to rescue what apparently is a troubling future.

[Rex Buckingham]

listen, if the price for Skubal is just Rojas and either Wing or Reid, you do it in a heartbeat if you are comfortable with Skubal's medical. He's the kind of guy that boosts an entire team and makes you think you can win 1-0, 2-1 kind of games. He can start twice in a playoff series and you feel good about winning both of those games. The Cubs don't have that, and if the price to bring him in is a (very promising) infielder who is blocked and a low-level pitching prospect, you do it. 

Plus, maybe he dominates down the stretch and the Cubs fans love him and he falls in love with playing in front of an awesome Wrigley crowd and signs with you in the offseason and you have a dominant pitcher for another 7-8 years

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

[Patrick88]

10 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Matt speaks the truth though.  The Cubs future is pretty bleak.  2025 and 2026 are the best you will see for a while.  

[Patrick88]

I wish this team would be sellers, but they have turned it around.  Next year at this time you could be looking at a rebuild, and that is what we should all be rooting for.  2027 will be the year to wave that white flag.  Enjoy it Cubs fans, because it will only get worse from here.  

 

Also, don't be shocked if the Brewers make a big trade and win the world series.  Part of me is rooting for the Brewers though, since they have a commitment to winning and they aren't owned by Tom Ricketts.  

Edited 3 hours ago by Patrick88

[Matthew Trueblood]

43 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

listen, if the price for Skubal is just Rojas and either Wing or Reid, you do it in a heartbeat if you are comfortable with Skubal's medical. He's the kind of guy that boosts an entire team and makes you think you can win 1-0, 2-1 kind of games. He can start twice in a playoff series and you feel good about winning both of those games. The Cubs don't have that, and if the price to bring him in is a (very promising) infielder who is blocked and a low-level pitching prospect, you do it. 

Plus, maybe he dominates down the stretch and the Cubs fans love him and he falls in love with playing in front of an awesome Wrigley crowd and signs with you in the offseason and you have a dominant pitcher for another 7-8 years

On the first score: You gotta remember the format now. The Cubs aren't catching the Brewers. They have to win a best-of-3 just to get to a best-of-5. Skubal can give you a leg up in that first series (though it's not, like, a guarantee; he started the game in which the Tigers were eliminated each of the last two Octobers), but then he can't start twice for you in the second one unless you get that series to a Game 5. I don't think their rotation or their bullpen is strong enough to beat the Dodgers or the Brewers in enough of the non-Skubal innings (including, of course, innings he doesn't pitch even in the games he starts) to get past them.

On the second front: man, I just think that's telling yourself a story. It doesn't happen that way. Skubal will go where the money is biggest this winter and there's no way on Earth the Cubs will be the high bidders on a top-5 pitcher in the sport. It's not remotely how they operate. 

And finally, you have to think about opportunity cost. Rojas is unlikely to play a starring role for this team, but you can get Skubal for him, or you can get a guy like Detmers or Jose Soriano or Mason Miller for him—someone who still incrementally improves your chances for this year but also boosts you for the next two seasons or so. Given where this team is, I think you have to opt for the latter. They're not in a position to go all-in on this season, even though they absolutely have to invest more in this season. If they're going to give up one of the few impact players in their farm system, it has to be for more than a few months.

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

 

If these are your starting positions, what are all the half measure trade proposals even for? If the Cubs with the hypothetical addition of, at worst, a top 5 pitcher in baseball, still have too many flaws to be 'anything like' close enough to compete for World Series, and also this is the best the team is going to be for a while...why even both trying to improve? Why pay the midseason premium on a pitcher when you can get him cheaper in the offseason, a la Cabrera last year? Let some better team (all four of them, per records to date) go mortgage their future. Put Happ, Suzuki, Boyd, Shota, Kelly on the market, try to rescue what apparently is a troubling future.

That's way too pessimistic. I don't like plunging resources into a team with no chance to win its division, but they're still leveraged toward the present, at the expense of the future. They still need to take advantage of a good chance to reach the postseason, both to build momentum for the future and to get decent odds on the dice roll that is a Wild Card playoff entry. Get in, and get in with a respectable chance. Just don't mortgage the future when the upside isn't there for the present. I totally get how that sounds like talking out both sides of my mouth, but hopefully it's clear what I mean. This team, unfortunately, demands a middle-road approach.

[Matthew Trueblood]

[Re: Patrick88: Don't feed the trolls, everyone. They only get stronger that way.]

[Patrick88]

6 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

[Re: Patrick88: Don't feed the trolls, everyone. They only get stronger that way.]

I am not a troll.  I agree with everything you say.  I just think this team needs to tear it down again.  

[Matthew Trueblood]

Just now, Patrick88 said:

I am not a troll.  I agree with everything you say.  I just think this team needs to tear it down again.  

I'll take you at your word. Make good on that word by not circling back to reignite an argument two weeks later (like on that Boyd piece), and by moderating this stance. They're in no position at all to tear it down again, they will not do so, and that's so unreasonable a position as to be unavoidably trollish, even if that's not your underlying intent. They're going to add at this deadline. Engage with that fact and make your case for protecting their long-term talent pipeline within that context.

[Geographyhater8888]

1 hour ago, Patrick88 said:

I wish this team would be sellers, but they have turned it around.  Next year at this time you could be looking at a rebuild, and that is what we should all be rooting for.  2027 will be the year to wave that white flag.  Enjoy it Cubs fans, because it will only get worse from here.  

 

Also, don't be shocked if the Brewers make a big trade and win the world series.  Part of me is rooting for the Brewers though, since they have a commitment to winning and they aren't owned by Tom Ricketts.  

I’m with you. I miss the tribune era myself which consisted of winning one playoff series. Tom ruined everything by hiring Theo and turning the Cubs into something that resembles competence for first time in the lifetime of anyone who’s currently alive. 
 

Go Brewers. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That's way too pessimistic. I don't like plunging resources into a team with no chance to win its division, but they're still leveraged toward the present, at the expense of the future. They still need to take advantage of a good chance to reach the postseason, both to build momentum for the future and to get decent odds on the dice roll that is a Wild Card playoff entry. Get in, and get in with a respectable chance. Just don't mortgage the future when the upside isn't there for the present. I totally get how that sounds like talking out both sides of my mouth, but hopefully it's clear what I mean. This team, unfortunately, demands a middle-road approach.

I just don't see Jefferson Rojas and Jace Beck as anywhere close to 'mortgaging the future'. Jefferson Rojas is what...5th on the middle infield depth chart in the organization? And clearly they don't envision Nico moving off his role as every day second baseman anytime soon, and Dansby is on pace for a 3.8 fWAR this year. Jace Beck? Just...get another one of those next year. It'll be fine.

Do we need pitching on a go forward basis, pitching that someone like Rojas could instead be traded for? Sure. But also, we have $120m coming off the books this year. Ben Brown will have a slot. Cabrera will have a slot. Steele most likely will have a slot (it's the last year of team control, so no real point in babying him). Yes, that means he'll need to be backfilled, but that's what Cade Horton is for. There's probably not a world where Shaw and Ramirez are both gone by opening day, so that's one of the two offensive slots filled internally. Where are we spending $100m? Bullpen is $30m, we need an outfielder, a top end starter, and a backend starter? That seems pretty doable, no? We don't have to act like the Brewers. Pay in prospects now, pay in cash later. We can do both. 

[Patrick88]

7 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m with you. I miss the tribune era myself which consisted of a winning one playoff series. Tom ruined everything by hiring Theo and turning the Cubs into something that resembles competence for first time in the lifetime of anyone who’s alive. 
 

Go Brewers. 

Theo really wasn't that great.  He promised sustained success and a player development machine.  Neither really happened.  The Cubs have also only won two playoff series, since winning it all 10 years ago.  

[Geographyhater8888]

15 minutes ago, Patrick88 said:

Theo really wasn't that great.  He promised sustained success and a player development machine.  Neither really happened.  The Cubs have also only won two playoff series, since winning it all 10 years ago.  

The Brewers have also only won two playoff series, since watching the Cubs win it all 10 years ago. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[javy knows my name]

3 hours ago, Patrick88 said:

I wish this team would be sellers, but they have turned it around.  Next year at this time you could be looking at a rebuild, and that is what we should all be rooting for.  2027 will be the year to wave that white flag.  Enjoy it Cubs fans, because it will only get worse from here.  

 

Also, don't be shocked if the Brewers make a big trade and win the world series.  Part of me is rooting for the Brewers though, since they have a commitment to winning and they aren't owned by Tom Ricketts.  

I think every ounce of you roots for the Brewers. 

Edited 42 minutes ago by javy knows my name

[Patrick88]

56 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I'll take you at your word. Make good on that word by not circling back to reignite an argument two weeks later (like on that Boyd piece), and by moderating this stance. They're in no position at all to tear it down again, they will not do so, and that's so unreasonable a position as to be unavoidably trollish, even if that's not your underlying intent. They're going to add at this deadline. Engage with that fact and make your case for protecting their long-term talent pipeline within that context.

Ok, I get all of that.  I also wasn't trying to reignite argument, so I will apologize for that.  They aren't catching the Brewers, or winning a world series, that is why suggested trading away players.  They aren't going to do that though.  I wish they would, because I am not optimistic about next year or the year after.  It doesn't matter what I think though.

 

I know I brought up the White Sox 1997 white flag trade.  I should have instead referenced the Yankees 10 years ago.  We all know what happened with that.  I have also said they said  should trade PCA.  I have only said that, because I don't want a repeat of the Sammy era.  I'll try and stop dropping my thoughts though.  hah.  If anything I am doomer, and not a troll .