2026 Chicago Cubs MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[Steve Drumwright]

Image courtesy of MLB.com

While still jockeying for a spot in the postseason, the Chicago Cubs’ front office turns its attention to the amateur level this weekend for the MLB Draft. While none of the players selected this weekend are likely to impact the postseason push, the Cubs do recognize that they need to shore up the pitching in their system.

Last year, the Cubs went with Wake Forest outfielder Ethan Conrad with the 17th overall pick. In 2024, they selected Florida State third baseman Cam Smith with the 14th pick, then traded him that December to the Houston Astros in the Kyle Tucker blockbuster. Right-hander Cade Horton was the last pitcher taken by the Cubs in the first round, picking him out of Oklahoma in 2022.

The draft begins with the first four rounds Saturday, then finishing Sunday with Rounds 5 through 20. TV coverage begins at noon CT on NBC and Peacock, with it switching to MLB.com, MLB Network, MLB.tv and MLB+ at 1:30 p.m. Sunday’s telecast begins at 10:30 a.m. CT on MLB.com, MLB.tv and MLB+.

The Cubs have the 23rd pick in the first round, with five picks total on the first day. The extra pick comes courtesy of Tucker signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers after receiving a qualifying offer, giving the Cubs the final pick of the second round at No. 75. The Cubs’ pool this year is $9,644,100. While there are slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, teams can sign players for any amount as long as it fits into their pool. Deals are often made with certain players in order to redistribute money to another player. Teams can spend up to 5% more than their draft pool without incurring a penalty. The Cubs are one of three teams to surpass their bonus pool each of the 14 years under this system (the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are the others). No team has ever spent more than 5% while this rule has been in place. Last year, 20 of 30 teams surpassed their bonus pool.

Here are the slot values for each of the Cubs' picks:

• First round (23rd pick): $3,947,600
• Second round (62nd): $1,487,200
• Second round (comp., 75th): $1,120,900
• Third round (98th): $800,000
• Fourth round (126th): $609,200
• Fifth round (159th): $441,300
• Sixth round (188th): $344,400
• Seventh round (217th): $272,000
• Eighth round (247th): $224,100
• Ninth round (277th): $204,100
• 10th round (307th): $193,300

Players drafted in the 11th through 20th rounds do not technically have a slot value, although they are soft-capped at $150,000 without counting toward the bonus pool. Any amount above $150,000 will go against the cap. That amount also applies to undrafted free agents. Teams have until July 27 at 4 p.m. CT to sign their draft picks.

Who should the Cubs take with their top pick?

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

17 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Longenhagen has you covered

 

Apparently Jackson’s whiffs, chase and EVs line up similarly to Mike Sirota in college.

I’m still too nervous about the swing and miss to want him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

3 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Apparently Jackson’s whiffs, chase and EVs line up similarly to Mike Sirota in college.

I’m still too nervous about the swing and miss to want him.

Yeah, there's just no way I'm taking a guy with "out of control " strikeout numbers in the 1st round. Maybe if he was an elite defender, but he's not

[Bertz]

On the one hand the big league team is good, the farm is in pretty good shape, catcher in particular is not a huge org worry in the short or long term, what better time to take a big swing for a potential super-duper star? 

On the other hand I thought Kantrovitz laid out a pretty compelling argument about banking some wins to allow yourself to load up on pitching.  Feels like a guy whose hit tool is this problematic is not setting that floor? 

On yet another hand Mike Zunino had a deceptively good career and that feels like a very attainable bar to clear....so maybe he is high floor?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

https://www.mlb.com/news/final-mlb-mock-draft-2026

[Jason Ross]

I feel the most confident predicting college bat with 1.23. I like Jackson a bit more than Rose, but you can also blame me for being a Louisville-hater (which I am). When I cut through my hatred of all things red-and-black, Rose has tools the Cubs would like and his ability to potentially play CF is something the team has targeted as an under-the-radar type.

Maybe AJ Gracia drops, but I think they want to save slot and Rose and Jackson probably save some. 

[Jason Ross]

Joe Doyle has the Cubs taking Cade Townshend. Mentions Daniel Jackson.

He's always a good one to listen to. A few years ago he had the Cubs on Cade Horton before most else. 

[Bertz]

FWIW if I were doing a farm ranking today it'd look something like this (not necessarily in order within tiers)

Tier 1: Hartshorn, Rojas

Tier 2: Wiggins, Conrad, Ayers

Tier 3: Kepley, Sanders, Wing, Caple

Tier 4: McGwire, Beck, Southisene, Cepeda, Reid

Tier 5 would be where it really opens up and I don't feel like listing every name, but a combo of lower ceiling guys closer to the majors (Long, Triantos, Trice) and higher ceiling guys a million miles away (Lovich, Mule, the complex league guys, etc.)

Our first rounder will almost certainly slot into that Tier 2, even if it's someone they underslot.  From there, especially with the comp pick, they should end up with 5ish guys across Tiers 3&4, ideally three of each.  Broadly IMO a 7 figure bonus and a draft ranking in the 50-100 range would be T3, a $500K+ bonus and a draft ranking in the 100-200 range would be a T4.

We all have preferences in terms of demographics and player styles, but just broadly from a value standpoint this is what the expectation should be IMO.  And with Kantrovitz's talk about just trying to add wins, I presume this is roughly how the team is thinking about it.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

FWIW if I were doing a farm ranking today it'd look something like this (not necessarily in order within tiers)

Tier 1: Hartshorn, Rojas

Tier 2: Wiggins, Conrad, Ayers

Tier 3: Kepley, Sanders, Wing, Caple

Tier 4: McGwire, Beck, Southisene, Cepeda, Reid

Tier 5 would be where it really opens up and I don't feel like listing every name, but a combo of lower ceiling guys closer to the majors (Long, Triantos, Trice) and higher ceiling guys a million miles away (Lovich, Mule, the complex league guys, etc.)

Our first rounder will almost certainly slot into that Tier 2, even if it's someone they underslot.  From there, especially with the comp pick, they should end up with 5ish guys across Tiers 3&4, ideally three of each.  Broadly IMO a 7 figure bonus and a draft ranking in the 50-100 range would be T3, a $500K+ bonus and a draft ranking in the 100-200 range would be a T4.

We all have preferences in terms of demographics and player styles, but just broadly from a value standpoint this is what the expectation should be IMO.  And with Kantrovitz's talk about just trying to add wins, I presume this is roughly how the team is thinking about it.

That's a good way to look at it. No one is going to jump the top-2 regardless (I really like AJ Garcia and there is no way I'm putting him above the tier-2 guys you listed). I do think there's a good chance that the Cubs find savings to draft a big bonus-baby in the the fourth round (maybe the fifth to give them a day to shop) but even then it's a prep guy (almost assuredly) and even then you're still at a guy that probably deserves to be in the Kepley/Wing cat, and would need to rocketship himself up next year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

- Joe Doyle

[Jason Ross]

Just now, CaliforniaRaisin said:

- Joe Doyle

Cade feels very "Cub-coded". IVB on the fastball, cut-ride shape, big curveball (they've been pushing the power curve pretty regularly lately). He's the pitcher I think most fits into what they like doing.

[Bertz]

Klaw

Quote

A late rumor had the Cubs on Vermont high school right-hander Kaiden McCarthy, especially if Zion Rose is gone. I find it a little hard to believe a team that has been allergic to high school pitching might take a 6-foot prep righty in the first round, but it’s that kind of year.

Obviously no at 23 bu a name to stash for later

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Klaw

Obviously no at 23 bu a name to stash for later

Cade Townsend. Kaiden McCarthy. Cade Horton. 

My mom named me wrong. It's clearly the only reason I wasn't drafted as a pitcher.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Cade Townsend. Kaiden McCarthy. Cade Horton. 

My mom named me wrong. It's clearly the only reason I wasn't drafted as a pitcher.

 

 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

 

 

In five to seven years, hear me when I say this: there will be like three or four guys named "Liam" who will go in the top round. It's been an epidemic at the middle-school level for a few years.

The Liams are coming.

[JD94]

Man if we are taking an Ole Miss pitcher I much prefer Rabe. I watched every start both made this year. It’s not even close to me. Rabe is just a dog out there with electric stuff. But I also wanted no part of Cade Horton, so I’m no expert lol. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Man if we are taking an Ole Miss pitcher I much prefer Rabe. I watched every start both made this year. It’s not even close to me. Rabe is just a dog out there with electric stuff. But I also wanted no part of Cade Horton, so I’m no expert lol. 

I loved Wiggins and Horton. I hated Wicks, then came around on him. I disliked Nico Hoerner. 

I've learned that there's a good chance that however I feel at, say, 2:30est today that within one calendar year that I have completely flipped.

[JD94]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I loved Wiggins and Horton. I hated Wicks, then came around on him. I disliked Nico Hoerner. 

I've learned that there's a good chance that however I feel at, say, 2:30est today that within one calendar year that I have completely flipped.

Speaking of Rabe, what do you make out of this? I’d love your opinion. I’m guessing this is all correct. I haven’t followed this account but ran into it and thought it was interesting data 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

28 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Cade Townsend. Kaiden McCarthy. Cade Horton. 

My mom named me wrong. It's clearly the only reason I wasn't drafted as a pitcher.

Kade Anderson is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, JD94 said:

Speaking of Rabe, what do you make out of this? I’d love your opinion. I’m guessing this is all correct. I haven’t followed this account but ran into it and thought it was interesting data 

 

Zumach summed it up really well between Rabe and Townsend:
Rabe has a starter's build but does not supinate well and has no feel for spin
Townsend has a smaller frame but spins really well

One thing that's been bandied about: you can't really fix the spin thing. So you look at this and Rabe's best version is probably a super high velo slider (tight, less spin). You can't really go kick-change with him, because you kill spin with a kick and he doesn't have it. But he hasn't had a lot of starting experience so maybe you just say "this is inexperience". 

I do think pitchers can control some of their batted ball data. When you see the EV, he's getting a decent amount of that with the ground balls. So I'm not super worried. 

If you look at Rabe and go "Fastball, tight slider, and I can get him a pitch against lefties" he's super fun. I think I tend to sit Townsend. His knock is, what, he's not big? I'd be more worried about that a decade ago. But I think we've got enough smaller stature pitchers now that if that's your knock, I'll go there. (You have to believe the control)

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Kade Anderson is arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball 

My mom ruined my entire life naming me Jason.

[Jason Ross]

This is the guy Law was talking about.