The Cubs' Constant Bullpen Problem: Endless Churn, Endless Trouble

[Brian Kelder]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

One constant in the Jed Hoyer era, as middling as it has been, is the constant churn of bullpen arms. The Cubs have not been able to consistently develop arms internally, despite the much-ballyhooed Pitch Lab; Tyler Zombro being hired from Tread Athletics; and copious amounts of money poured into the IVY model. The bullpen has not been stable for years. 

So what's going on? Why do fans, year after year, have to watch a bullpen flounder for a couple of months? 

THE 2023 MIRAGE
For an analytically savvy front office, they have a shocking history of bringing back relievers after a good season that was obviously an outlier, even in real time. Since 2023, there's been a parade of mediocre relievers brought back after career seasons:

• Mark Leiter, Jr.: Age 32, 77 K in 64 IP, 3.52 ERA. Next season: 4.21 ERA, traded to Yankees
• Julian Merryweather: Age 31, 3.38 ERA, 98 K in 72 IP. Due to injuries, has not pitched 72 innings in his other four seasons combined.
• Adbert Alzolay: 22 Saves, 67 K in 64 IP. Next season: 4.67 ERA, eventual Tommy John surgery
• Jose Cuas: 3.04 ERA, 19 K in 24 IP. Next season: released with 7.43 ERA in 13 IP

These guys were the backbone of the 2023 surprise bullpen, and all were brought back for the next season. At the time, fans weren't exactly clamoring for them to be replaced. But they all had red flags. Alzolay and Merryweather had just completed the only healthy season in their careers. Cuas had always had massive control issues, and Leiter is simply not a high-leverage reliever. All were brought back in 2024, and their season was lost before the bullpen could be fixed. 

THE UNLEARNED LESSON
Now, in 2024, they did save the pen with Tyson Miller and Jorge López, both of whom moved on and have not pitched consistently in the major leagues since then. But then:

• Porter Hodge: 1.88 ERA, 9 saves, 52 K in 43 IP. Since then: 33 IP, 6.27 ERA
• Héctor Neris: No. We don't want to relive that. But he was the big signing.
• Nate Pearson: deadline move, 2.73 ERA. Released in 2025 with a 9.20 ERA.

So, this was supposed to be Hoyer's strong suit. Neris didn't work out and was cut loose. Hodge and a bunch of people off the scrap heap somehow cobbled together a solid bullpen. While the team in 2024 only won 83 games, it emboldened Hoyer to scrimp and save on the bullpen for another year. 

Now, an observer would notice that it did work, and also point to other pitchers' struggles as proof of concept for Hoyer. Tanner Scott, for example, pitched to just a 4.74 ERA after signing his four-year, $72-million deal in 2025. Bryan Abreu, long a co-ace in the Astros' pen, is struggling this year to a 7.17 ERA. Due to the nature of their work, even the most stalwart bullpen arms can have down seasons. Injuries are a huge factor, too. Edwin Díaz is on the shelf for months because of an elbow issue. Josh Hader just returned after spending the first two months on the IL.

To counter this, at least Scott and Abreu had long bodies of work to support keeping them around. Guys like Leiter (4.62 career ERA) or Merryweather (yearly injuries to the pitching arm) were relied on for the Cubs at the same level that Scott is. And to be fair to Scott, he's rebounded this year with a 2.36 ERA and is serving as the Dodgers' first option at closer (even if that's only because of Díaz's absence). Reliable arms aren't cheap or sure things, but they are more reliable than pitchers like Hunter Harvey or Neris. The elite sheer stuff of those pitchers sets a high floor for them, too. When you gamble on Leiter's 90-MPH heater and floater of a curve (even if it comes with a great splitter), you're drawing to a straight. When you do it with a guy who throws 98 and has a plus slider, you're betting with a strong pair in the hole.

THE 2025/26 LOOP CYCLE
Now for some 2025 relievers:

• Caleb Thielbar: 38 years old, 2.64 ERA. This year: 4.20 ERA and 4 homers allowed in 15 IP
• Ryan Pressly (bad), Ryan Brasier (meh) and Drew Pomeranz (not bad) brought in at 36-37 years old. To the front office's credit, all now elsewhere.

Even Colin Rea has pitched to a 4.59 ERA this season, after 3.95 last year. And do we have to mention Phil Maton, a 33-year-old on his sixth team in three seasons, or Hunter Harvey, who (of course) is injured? Hoby Milner at age 35, with an ERA over 4.00? Hoyer gets credit for the Jacob Webb signing, which is turning out nicely, and he did spend a bit of real money to bring in Maton and Harvey, whose track records are stronger than past targets. It's a bit like being told to clean your room and stuffing everything into drawers and closets, though, and we've seen that sitcom moment where the closet is opened and red rubber balls bounce out like they'd been stuffer in there with a pant and a heave.

The common thread is expecting, or hoping, that relievers can repeat career years in their 30s. Bullpens are notoriously volatile; relievers in their mid-to-late 30s are even more so. Hoyer continues to treat temporary success as stable, repeatable production. Until this changes, Cub fans can expect to ride even more early-season roller coasters of relief production in the future. Until the team can shore up its pitching development infrastructure and build good, hard-throwing relievers from within, though, Hoyer has no choice but to do some version of this. He's claimed or purchased Doug Nikhazy, Tyler Ferguson, Luis Peralta, Eduarniel Nuñez and Christian Roa, just within the last six weeks. So, the questions are: Can any of those guys help this team survive this year? Will the Cubs ill-advisedly bring back any of them, if so? And (worst and scariest but certainly most important): Can a Hoyer-led front office ever fix the team's developmental woes?

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[DK1230]

It's long past time to admit that whatever analytical models this front office uses, have failed this organization from top to bottom.  There was one Moneyball.  There have been a ton of analytic failures to the point that heavy usage of them has proven foolish.  The Jed Hoyer model is but one of them.