Kevin Alcántara Should Spend His Season in Chicago, Starting Right Now

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images

It's not that Kevin Alcántara is guaranteed to succeed in the big leagues. That's a mile from being true. Alcántara came to the Cubs in the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees in 2021, and in the years since, he's climbed the minor-league ladder impressively enough to get his hands on the final rung a time or two. In both 2024 and 2025, he got late-season cups of coffee with the parent club, and he's gotten more than a full season's worth of plate appearances at Triple-A Iowa, despite injury interruptions. If he were a can't-miss guy, though, he'd already have landed a spot in the big-league lineup.

Instead, in addition to those injury problems, Alcántara has battled inconsistency born of an aggressive approach; too much swing-and-miss against top-tier pitchers; and a tendency to hit the ball on the ground too much. He has very impressive bat speed, but doesn't apply it all that well. He's a good athlete and a fine corner outfielder, but he looks a bit stretched in center.

No, Alcántara hasn't proved he can be a big-league regular. If he pans out, he could still be a star, but it's gotten very difficult to buy into that vision. He's spent too long struggling to clear the final hurdle posed by the minors, let alone hitting in the majors. The chances that he ends up as a complementary piece, rather than a key contributor, have risen significantly.

Because the Cubs want to give him whatever time remains to find his way to his ceiling (and need to keep his trade value up), they've eschewed opportunities to bring Alcántara up for any extended period in less than a full-time role. Instead, they keep asking him to work through things in Iowa, where it's easy for him to play wherever and whenever he needs to, as long as he's healthy.

Understandable though that impulse is, though, it's becoming increasingly self-defeating. It's time for the team to shift their mindset when it comes to Alcántara, for the mutual benefit of player and team. Once they make that mental change, the next step will be a change to the roster makeup—facilitated by a new and vital developmental tool.

The Cubs need an outfielder who can both hit and field well. Specifically, though, what they need is a righty bat who can mash lefties for them. Michael Conforto doesn't fit the bill. Neither does Matt Shaw. So great is Craig Counsell's trust in Scott Kingery and Dylan Carlson that in the first week of games, the two combined for zero plate appearances. Once Seiya Suzuki returns from the injured list, there will still be room for a player with the right skillset. They can play center field against some lefty starters, and right field against some others, with Pete Crow-Armstrong getting occasional days off and Moisés Ballesteros getting others (with Suzuki sliding to DH).

Alcántara could be that guy, and he'd do it well. Since the start of 2024, he's taken 224 plate appearances in the regular season against left-handed pitchers, and he's batted .286/.383/.510 in them, with 10 home runs. His worst showing in that span was in 2024; he's thoroughly bashed lefties since the start of last year.

There are two problems with calling up a player like him to fill a part-time role, as a platoon player. One is that it might blunt his development, but again, Alcántara is reaching the point where that consideration needs to be set on the back burner. He's trending toward being that kind of player anyway, and the team has a short-term need that supersedes the long-term goal of making this one player a star. The other is that, if we grant the premise that this role is an important one for the team to fill better than they currently can, it's nonetheless a difficult role in which to thrive. In other words, even if you're willing to subjugate Alcántara's development to the roster value of having him in the big leagues, you're left with the dilemma of getting him ready to succeed in uneven playing time.

One object addresses both problems: the Trajekt machine. Like almost every other team in the league, the Cubs have a Trajekt setup in their hitting cages at Wrigley Field, where players can take what amount to live reps against pitchers. Using data to inform spin direction, speed and location and video to mimic the visual experience, Trajekt lets hitters simulate actually facing the pitcher to whom the machine is tailored at a given moment. Players and teams swear by the technology. It makes practice much more valuable as preparation for games.

Here's what you do: call up Alcántara, and give him a full-time job—just not on the field. He'll play there once or twice a week, when the Cubs face a southpaw, but the rest of the time, his duty will be to simulate playing. Trajekt systems don't travel with teams (yet), so he'd have to get through road trips with standard work against a batting practice pitcher, but during homestands, he would take several at-bats against big-league lefties each day; they just wouldn't all count. In fact, he'd get more exposure to the pitching the team should most want him to get ready to face as a big-leaguer than he does in the minors, where Trajekt machines are just fond memories from spring training.

If the tool is as powerful as everyone says it is, the Cubs should leverage it this way. Alcántara should be able to stay in rhythm (more or less) as well as any other player. He should be able to hammer left-handed pitchers when the right opportunities arise. He'd pile up service time and the team might lose Carlson as they move him off the active roster, but with the assistance of Trajekt, they should be able to extract on-field value from Alcántara and lose very little (if any) developmental momentum. All teams are reluctant to bring up a player with the upside of being a full-time player to fit a part-time job, but they should be less so. The Cubs, in particular, should jettison one of the low-ceiling veterans they don't trust anyway and call up Alcántara to get 150 or so plate appearances over the balance of the season—and another 300, all simulating the ones for which they want him to be most ready, in the tunnel before and during home games.

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[Clark_Addison]

I can see them doing this and using Alcantara this season as the 4th OF starting against LH's. But I think he needs real reps and needs to dominate AAA a little more before they do it. Plus, he has also shown to heat up with the temperatures so having him start the year in Iowa seems to be the right call. So I could see him being called up once the weather decides to stay on the warm setting instead of bouncing back and forth. They need to find out if he is a good option for LF or RF with both Happ and Suzuki about to be FA's. 

[Outshined_One]

In a vacuum, I'd agree that Alcantara deserves a full season look in the OF.  However, the current construction of the major league team doesn't really give him a place to play.  The OF currently is on lockdown between Happ/PCA/Seiya, the Cubs already have a promising rookie bat getting full time reps at DH in Ballesteros, and Shaw is firmly in the Ben Zobrist supersub role.  It's not like Alcantara has any experience at 1B, so he'd basically be relegated to the 5th OF role, which means occasional starts and pinch hitting.

I get that technology has improved and the Trajekt machine can be used to give Alcantara reps, but, to me, that's like saying a rehearsal is just as good as a live performance.  At least in AAA, Alcantara is facing live pitching, with many of those pitchers having ML experience.  I'd rather he have that than 5-6 plate appearances a week against live pitching in the majors.

As I like to say, Baseball Is Weird and Injuries Happen.  Let him (hopefully) dominate AAA, and either some opportunity will come up due to injury in the next month or two, or he'll be exceedingly valuable come the deadline.

[Bertz]

I pounded the table for this for most of the offseason, that said I think the Matt Shaw situation materially changed things.

Even when Seiya comes back, here's probably enough playing time for both of Shaw and Mo to play something approaching full time.  Mo plays full time DH vs. RHP and Shaw plays DH-by-proxy against LHP and covers for non C/1B who needs a day off.  Those last two bench spots are fighting for scraps.  Conforto/Carlson pinch hitting for Shaw against tough split-heavy relievers, Carlson/Kingery getting a smattering of pinch running/defensive replacement work.

I wouldn't want to have Kevin fight for scraps, and I don't want to pull back from Shaw or Mo unless they have lengthier struggles and prove we should pull back from them.  What I would say is whatever modest expectations I had for Conforto and Carlson are dropping rapidly.  I think after Seiya returns next week any future position player injuries I'd call up Alcantara.  I also think that when we get to the summer if anyone has played themselves out of some playing time Kevin can potentially be up for good.

[We Got The Whole 9]

If they dont plan on trying to bring Happ or Seiya back I'd offer Alcantara like 8/50 after the year and plan on him being a really good RF throughout his prime years.

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If they dont plan on trying to bring Happ or Seiya back I'd offer Alcantara like 8/50 after the year and plan on him being a really good RF throughout his prime years.

I am fine with giving Alcantara a shot at a corner spot. But you aren’t signing him for 8/$50M. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I am fine with giving Alcantara a shot at a corner spot. But you aren’t signing him for 8/$50M. 

I dont think that's too far off 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I dont think that's too far off 

Maybe not. But those guys who deserve that sort of money usually are not extrnded before the start if their career. Not arguing the money. I am saying he isn’t a fit you give that contract to. I don’t think that contract exists. If that is all you are worth a team will go year to year with you. Why give him 8 years guaranteed if this is his value? 

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

I pounded the table for this for most of the offseason, that said I think the Matt Shaw situation materially changed things.

Even when Seiya comes back, here's probably enough playing time for both of Shaw and Mo to play something approaching full time.  Mo plays full time DH vs. RHP and Shaw plays DH-by-proxy against LHP and covers for non C/1B who needs a day off.  Those last two bench spots are fighting for scraps.  Conforto/Carlson pinch hitting for Shaw against tough split-heavy relievers, Carlson/Kingery getting a smattering of pinch running/defensive replacement work.

I wouldn't want to have Kevin fight for scraps, and I don't want to pull back from Shaw or Mo unless they have lengthier struggles and prove we should pull back from them.  What I would say is whatever modest expectations I had for Conforto and Carlson are dropping rapidly.  I think after Seiya returns next week any future position player injuries I'd call up Alcantara.  I also think that when we get to the summer if anyone has played themselves out of some playing time Kevin can potentially be up for good.

If there is enough AB to get Kevin and Shaw 200-250 each and Mo 400 I can see Alcantara coming up if Conforto or Carlson aren’t doing anything by the end of April. If Kevin comes up he would take AB away from Shaw. He would probably play right against a lefty starter. Seiya would DH. So when does Shaw play? 

[We Got The Whole 9]

52 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe not. But those guys who deserve that sort of money usually are not extrnded before the start if their career. Not arguing the money. I am saying he isn’t a fit you give that contract to. I don’t think that contract exists. If that is all you are worth a team will go year to year with you. Why give him 8 years guaranteed if this is his value? 

I think you try to lock in surplus value wherever you can. The Brewers are giving that contract to a SS who hasn't hit yet or played MLB because they believe in his floor and if the bat breaks out they have a star SS locked up dirt cheap throughout his athletic prime. Alcantara fits that mold. I think he has a really good floor; hes always gotten high marks for his defense and hes always hit a little above average. Hes had just a little taste, no real success, is out of options after this year and we have 2 COF potentialy leaving. I think it makes a little sense to take a slight gamble on his bat breaking out. I see a 3 win player, maybe similar to Happ in a couple years. 

[Clark_Addison]

Alcantara’s floor is that of a 4th OF so his 8 year contract would be $10-$12m if paying for his floor. His ceiling, which he has small chance to reach, is that of a superstar.  Alcantara would take 8/50m fast and then I doubt he would ever reach his ceiling for sure.