PECOTA Says the Cubs Will Win the 2026 NL Central Title—in a Rout

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs had a good 2025 season, and they've built on that success this winter. On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus rolled out their PECOTA projection system for 2026, complete with projected standings and playoff odds. The Cubs are the top dogs in the NL Central, and according to this model, they have no close competition. PECOTA predicts 90.5 wins for Chicago, which is technically fewer than the 92 they won last year—but which is a very strong number for any team to bring into spring training in projection systems, which are inherently conservative in that regard.

It's not just the Cubs' forecasted win total that stands out, though. The Brewers are projected second-best in the division, and they're all the way back at 80.5 wins. Though we're still weeks away from a pitch being thrown toward this end, PECOTA already pegs the Cubs at 73.9% likely to win the Central and 87.7% likely to make the postseason. As the computer sees it, this will not just be the year the Cubs reclaim their primacy in the Central, but their easiest division win since 2016.

Of course, they don't play the games inside the computers. It's not hard to see why the model likes the North Siders so much, though. It projects all six of their top starting pitchers (Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele) to be better than average, and thinks six of their key relievers to fall on the right side of that line, too. It forecasts above-average offense from six positions, and the only three where it sees them as below-average at the plate (catcher, shortstop and center field) are defense-first spots where they have solid defensive projections.

FanGraphs published their own projected standings and playoff odds last week, and saw a muddier picture in the Central. They expect the Cubs to win 85.9 games, with the Pirates (82.8) and Brewers (82.0) much closer behind. That still leaves Chicago as a slight favorite, but with less than a coin flip's chance to win the division. In that model, they make the playoffs more like five times out of every eight simulations, instead of seven out of eight.

It didn't hurt that the Brewers traded their starting third baseman Monday, in a move that bolstered their already considerable pitching depth but raises some big questions about their lineup. Still, based on sheer talent and projectable performance, the Cubs have ascended. They're the team to beat in the Central, for the first time since before the pandemic. With more than a month left before Opening Day, injuries could always shake up this picture—but so could further moves to reinforce the roster, to which the Cubs remain very much open. For now, they're in a very strong position.

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[Bertz]

I follow Dan Szymborski's writing pretty closely.  He's mentioned something a few times this winter that I thought was really interesting.  Basically that the Brewers beating the projection systems every year has been less about them getting a bunch of individual results that the computers don't see coming, and more about the Brewers being good about shifting playing time to guys the computers think deserve more playing time than the public does.  For instance Isaac Collins projected for approximately 2 WAR/600 heading into last year, and yet didn't appear at all on Fangraphs' pre-season depth charts.

So one thing Dan did when he ran ZiPS a few weeks ago (after the Peralta trade, before the Durbin one) was try to anchor less to what we expect playing time to look like now and more optimize towards what would theoretically be most effective.  That method closed the Cubs/Brewers gap considerably.  And it makes sense, the Brewers have absurd depth and only like four or five guys making decent money.  They can funnel playing time to the guys hitting their 60th percentile outcomes and away from the guys hitting their 30th.

The Cubs do IMO have a more obviously talented top of the roster, and plenty of depth of their own.  I think much like this past year if the Cubs don't win the division it's going to be more of a "Brewers won" than "Cubs lost" situation.

[Development DL]

Well thought out response .  I had similar thoughts . The Cubs continue to close the depth  gap , while fielding 3 WAR players at most positions . The Author , clued us into this gap in depth , over a year ago .

The Cubs organization has mitigated some weaknesses  in a consistent and incremental fashion . 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bologna_Tugboat]

Beat me to it Bertz. Brewers are circumventing the models in ways that Dan laid out in that article. In my mind, the delta between the two teams feels more like 5 wins rather than 10.