PECOTA Says the Cubs Will Win the 2026 NL Central Title—in a Rout

The Chicago Cubs had a good 2025 season, and they've built on that success this winter. On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus rolled out their PECOTA projection system for 2026, complete with projected standings and playoff odds. The Cubs are the top dogs in the NL Central, and according to this model, they have no close competition. PECOTA predicts 90.5 wins for Chicago, which is technically fewer than the 92 they won last year—but which is a very strong number for any team to bring into spring training in projection systems, which are inherently conservative in that regard.

It's not just the Cubs' forecasted win total that stands out, though. The Brewers are projected second-best in the division, and they're all the way back at 80.5 wins. Though we're still weeks away from a pitch being thrown toward this end, PECOTA already pegs the Cubs at 73.9% likely to win the Central and 87.7% likely to make the postseason. As the computer sees it, this will not just be the year the Cubs reclaim their primacy in the Central, but their easiest division win since 2016.

Of course, they don't play the games inside the computers. It's not hard to see why the model likes the North Siders so much, though. It projects all six of their top starting pitchers (Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele) to be better than average, and thinks six of their key relievers to fall on the right side of that line, too. It forecasts above-average offense from six positions, and the only three where it sees them as below-average at the plate (catcher, shortstop and center field) are defense-first spots where they have solid defensive projections.

FanGraphs published their own projected standings and playoff odds last week, and saw a muddier picture in the Central. They expect the Cubs to win 85.9 games, with the Pirates (82.8) and Brewers (82.0) much closer behind. That still leaves Chicago as a slight favorite, but with less than a coin flip's chance to win the division. In that model, they make the playoffs more like five times out of every eight simulations, instead of seven out of eight.

It didn't hurt that the Brewers traded their starting third baseman Monday, in a move that bolstered their already considerable pitching depth but raises some big questions about their lineup. Still, based on sheer talent and projectable performance, the Cubs have ascended. They're the team to beat in the Central, for the first time since before the pandemic. With more than a month left before Opening Day, injuries could always shake up this picture—but so could further moves to reinforce the roster, to which the Cubs remain very much open. For now, they're in a very strong position.